For all those planning trips in early to mid 2022 do you have any confidence that the flights will occur or you just taking the punt, see what happens and cancel if required.
By my last calculation I am about 2 weeks away from pulling the trigger for an Apr 22 OW trip the main destination is NYC, CA both sides, SEA and SFO. As there is no OW options in CA my focus is on all the long haul sectors in either J or F. F may prove difficult or not economical as JL, QR and QF are no longer options from AU. JL, BA, and to a limited extent AA still have reasonable F options, although I like CX F I am not trusting of CX as looking at FR24 CX are currently using the a350 on a number of sectors that pre Covid were 777 routes. Looking at the J options QR, CX, IB and AA (flag ship) seem to be the contenders.
The current plan (prefered) is AU-JP-EU/UK-US (east coast), on the way back US (west coast) UK-SG-AU. Mileage is proving tight on this itinerary but should work. Not knowing what countries may be off limits or if transiting through will result in quarantine requirements I am booking a couple of backup options to get me to/from the US either via Asia or the Middle East. Last time I checked it seems to be a similar amount of points to go AU-HK(JP)-US return or AU-DXB(DOH)-US (east coast) return as the capped OW reward and I get this is not quite as good value, but no more and maybe a few less points required. Like many others I have a large number of 2020 returned points and with no points change penalties I am not to concerned about usage. Also not fussed about paying for flights NYC to either YUL or YYZ as these are cheap, I accept that I will have to pay for internal CA flights and getting from Vancouver to SEA will most likely be by train or ferry.
My main goal is to start the official trip on any OW carrier other than QF and I am will pay for the domestic flights to get me on my way. If things are not looking up by around Aug 21 I will just cancel and restart again for Sep 22.