Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[CityRail]

Erase plans for Europe and US all of 2021! Rising COVID cases take Europe and US off the travel list for next year

First of all, it is based on the assumption that if there's no vaccine, which we know Pfizer vaccine is coming soon as well as AstraZeneca vaccine is on its way to get rolling approvals from the European and Canadian authorities. I expect they will get approved by December this year and the vaccination program will commence from January 2021.

However there are 700 million people in Europe that means for the population to be fully vaccinated (for those who are willing to) it will need to wait until later in 2021 for that to materialisewhat and considering the second wave in the US and Europe at the moment, I will expect travel between Australia and Europe may not recommence until mid of 2021.

My expectation is that NZ will commence travel bubbles with Australia's selected states from December this year, followed by Singapore in late December/January as the travel ban is lifted, then Japan and Korea in Northern Spring.

It is interesting to note that other safe countries such as Vietnam or Thailand or China has yet to be discussed with Australia about the travel bubble, which I expect some relaxation around Easter time for those countries and that as more of the population is being vaccinated, we should see Australia likely to open to the rest of the world earlier than others do.

I understand what the Treasury has expected that a mass vaccination program may not commence until mid-2021, which I think this will depend on when the first dose of vaccine is being available. If the first dose of vaccine is available from January 2021, and it is approved, then we can see adults being vaccinated as soon as Easter 2021, which means we will have more overseas travel options by then.

 

[trevella]

I understand what the Treasury has expected that a mass vaccination program may not commence until mid-2021, which I think this will depend on when the first dose of vaccine is being available. If the first dose of vaccine is available from January 2021, and it is approved, then we can see adults being vaccinated as soon as Easter 2021, which means we will have more overseas travel options by then.

You've said before that you don't intend to take the vaccine. Do you expect to be allowed to travel regardless?

 

[oznflfan]

You've said before that you don't intend to take the vaccine. Do you expect to be allowed to travel regardless?

A) Aside from NZ that is pretty much a given to open (both ways without quarantine) at some stage over next 6 months, for unconditional overseas travel you will ABSOLUTELY have had approved vaccine, and show evidence to travel.
B) Would love to take 15 year old son to Super Nintendo World in Japan maybe Sept 2021 (scheduled to open early 2021), but concern is even though I will take vaccine when available, my wife and kids won't, so this will likely omit taking him anywhere.

 

[ayushamity]

My expectation is that NZ will commence travel bubbles with Australia's selected states from December this year, followed by Singapore in late December/January as the travel ban is lifted, then Japan and Korea in Northern Spring.

It is interesting to note that other safe countries such as Vietnam or Thailand or China has yet to be discussed with Australia about the travel bubble, which I expect some relaxation around Easter time

I agree with this - This is without vaccine

So the above countries will open up without vaccine but you would absolutely need a vaccine to open up to USA/UK/Europe.

I would also think that other countries like Vietnam and Thailand would open by December as well with 14 day quarantine needed. Heck, You can go to Thailand now if you are going for atleast 3 months and 14 day quarantine.

This is my realistic timeline

After Dec 17 travel ban ends, outbound travel ban lifted to any country but have to pay 3K for hotel quarantine on return.

From January, 14 day hotel quarantine requirement lifted for rich countries who can reciprocate with no quarantine required as well - Singapore/Japan/Korea etc.

Countries like Vietnam and Thailand continue with 14 day quarantine as they do not have the medical capacity to deal with an outbreak. This will continue until about April by when most Aussies hopefully get vaccinated and the quarantine limits can be lifted

UK/USA/Europe - Hotel quarantine will continue till late 2021 as it will take TIME to vaccinate the massive population there.

Pay up people !

 

[Tiki]

Why do people keep talking about everyone in the destination having to be vaccinated? I have been travelling for years and have had at various times vax for yellow fever, tetanus, typhoid, malaria pills (that I can remember right now), annual flu shots. I did what ever was required and happily backpacked around Africa, South America or whatever. And who cares what others do?

So what difference does it make if others are vaccinated? If I have it, that means I have antibodies for the prescribed amount of time and would be no threat to anyone.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So what difference does it make if others are vaccinated? If I have it, that means I have antibodies for the prescribed amount of time and would be no threat to anyone.

I guess the argument is that if the vaccine is only 50% effective, then you want as many people vaccinated as possible? Dunno.

The 'everyone needs it' line is often put forward by the naysayers to crush the fun brigade... they want a highly effective, 100% safe vaccine, which is also delivered to the the whole world. Oh, and one that's not made in Russia! It allows them to estimate 2022 as the earliest possible time to travel!

 

[jb747]

Interesting that Singapore comes up for mention in this thread. It's had almost 3 times the number of cases as Victoria, and currently has a very similar daily case rate. The fact that they aren't allowing Victorians in (as opposed to other Oz states) seems somewhat hypocritical....

Of course, it's moot anyway, as nobody is allowed to leave.

 

[dajop]

Interesting that Singapore comes up for mention in this thread. It's had almost 3 times the number of cases as Victoria, and currently has a very similar daily case rate. The fact that they aren't allowing Victorians in (as opposed to other Oz states) seems somewhat hypocritical....

Although as Professor Sutton always points out, you have to look at the story behind the numbers. In the last 7 days (5-11 Oct) there have been 64 new case in Singapore vs 72 in Victoria. But of those 64 cases in Singapore, 37 were in hotel quarantine ("imported cases") after arrival, and 23 in foreign worker dormitories, whose populations by and large aren't allowed to mix with the broader community, leaving just 4 over 7 days in the broader community. The Singapore government, rightly or wrongly, have been largely focussing on the latter category (cases in the broader community) in terms of determining what restrictions apply.

Having said that, I expect (or at least hope, from a personal point of view) that we may see some relaxation for Victoria, as they report on source of the imported cases, and the only one I recall as coming from Australia in the last two months was confirmed to be a false positive.

 

[jakeseven7]

Although as Professor Sutton always points out, you have to look at the story behind the numbers. In the last 7 days (5-11 Oct) there have been 64 new case in Singapore vs 72 in Victoria. But of those 64 cases in Singapore, 37 were in hotel quarantine ("imported cases") after arrival, and 23 in foreign worker dormitories, whose populations by and large aren't allowed to mix with the broader community, leaving just 4 over 7 days in the broader community. The Singapore government, rightly or wrongly, have been largely focussing on the latter category (cases in the broader community) in terms of determining what restrictions apply.

Having said that, I expect (or at least hope, from a personal point of view) that we may see some relaxation for Victoria, as they report on source of the imported cases, and the only one I recall as coming from Australia in the last two months was confirmed to be a false positive.

It would be madness if there was any state allowing travel to Singapore before borders were reopened with Victoria (assuming case levels as per now), it just will not happen. I can't even imagine the publics reaction.

 

[dajop]

It would be madness if there was any state allowing travel to Singapore before borders were reopened with Victoria (assuming case levels as per now), it just will not happen. I can't even imagine the publics reaction.

I don’t care about allowing travel to Singapore. Just from

 

[jakeseven7]

I don’t care about allowing travel to Singapore. Just from

Doubt that will even happen with those case numbers sorry, I mean that is higher than anywhere in Australia and we have domestic borders up still - makes no sense

 

[hb13]

I think the chance of a vaccine being approved this year is very low, however this is where we stand with the leading candidates outside of Russia and China (and therefore the only ones being considered by the Australian government):

• AZN - Phase 3 trial still on hold in the US.
• Pfizer - this is promising, but that is all the information we have. And just because European authorities have said they are ready to fast-track it does not mean a thing, we don't even know if it is effective or safe.
• Moderna - In Phase 3 trials and have said they estimate early 2021 to get results, meaning no approval can be done before that.
• J&J - this is also promising, with the company saying they may know by the end of the year if the vaccine works, but again, getting the data reviewed and approved takes some time.

I'm certain all of us here want this to happen as soon as possible, however, I don't see approval happening in 2020. Possibly 2021, before distribution and use in mid 2021 and later. The J&J vaccine being approved would be fantastic because they only need one jab and they don't need to be frozen (therefore distribution is much easier).

For those interested, NY Times tracker is a good place to see a nice summary of it all:

Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker (Published 2022)

A look at all the vaccines that have reached trials in humans.

www.nytimes.com

Just thinking optimistically for a second, if 3 of those 4 get approved by say Jan 2021, and are shown to be 80-90% effective, things could turn around very quickly and borders everywhere could be free again by the end of 2021.

Sure, that may be a pipe-dream, but, hey, we need that at times right?

 

[drron]

hb13 you are spot on.There may be a couple of Phase111 trials complete by December but that doesn't mean they are automatically approved.The FDA wants 2 months of safety data after that before it considers approval.Even if they then fast track approval it would be another month so any approval very unlikely until the second quarter of 2021.
Then many of the vaccines under investigation require a cold chain at -70C which will slow their distribution.This includes the Pfizer vaccine.

 

[VPS]

@CityRail you are the most optimistic person on this thread (even though I think you are completely wrong) - there is no way we will have a vaccine in 2020

 

[trevella]

for unconditional overseas travel you will ABSOLUTELY have had approved vaccine, and show evidence to travel

That’s pretty much it as far as every scenario I’ve seen that’s being workshopped or war gamed or whatever. The consensus being that those who don’t want to be vaccinated (or “vaccined” as one of Australia’s key policy makers unfortunately keeps saying) “can just wait.”

I don’t disagree.

 

[jb747]

I’m sure that vaccination checks will become a regular part of passing through an airport. And possibly not just international. In any event, if you aren’t vaccinated, I would expect you won’t be doing any travel.

I like the idea of the Russian vaccine. A couple of shots of vodka cures most things.

 

[ayushamity]

I think the chance of a vaccine being approved this year is very low

Oxford vaccine still on track for Australians despite halt in trials

There was a some news that Oxford Vaccine is still on track for Australia despite hold up in trials.

And I read somewhere that Australia will get 3 mill doses in January with CSL manufacturing the balance needed over next two months. Does that not imply that most of Aussies will get vaccinated Quarter 1 2021 ?

 

[jgreenspoon]

Suppose a vaccine does come out, have there been indications of who would get priority access? I’m a healthcare worker but more importantly I want to get overseas to visit family!

 

[trevella]

Suppose a vaccine does come out, have there been indications of who would get priority access? I’m a healthcare worker but more importantly I want to get overseas to visit family!

Our working template is based on what the UK has been saying:

people over 50 focusing on health workers and care home workers and the vulnerable

Older adults in care homes and care home workers would be in the first group, followed by those aged over 80, over 75, over 70 and over 65.

A sixth priority group would comprise of younger adults under 65 with conditions that leave them at high risk of developing serious complications from the virus.

They would be followed by those aged under 65 who have a moderate risk level.

Older people first to receive COVID-19 vaccine in UK, says government

As European regulators begin a rolling review of AstraZeneca’s COVID-19 vaccine, the focus in the UK has shifted to the government’s plans to distribute any vaccine that is deemed to be a safe and effective way of preventing the disease. According to weekend press reports a rollout of a vaccine...

pharmaphorum.com

 

[hb13]

Oxford vaccine still on track for Australians despite halt in trials

There was a some news that Oxford Vaccine is still on track for Australia despite hold up in trials.

And I read somewhere that Australia will get 3 mill doses in January with CSL manufacturing the balance needed over next two months. Does that not imply that most of Aussies will get vaccinated Quarter 1 2021 ?

That article is over a month old, however, even with that being the case - I don't see the actual timeline mentioned? They say the timeline "has not changed" - what is the timeline? We continuously keep putting times on this when in actual fact, as of today, there is literally no proof that any of these vaccines will be approved.

Furthermore, it was only last week when Josh Frydenberg said the government expects a vaccine to be available around the end of 2021. So clearly in the eyes of the Federal Government, no vaccine is happening in Q1 next year, let alone any Australian getting vaccinated. Again, I hope I'm dead wrong, I really do, but if we want to talk about evidence and facts - that is where the situation is now.