Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[lovetravellingoz]

Small but welcome start. We really need a lot more capacity throughout Australia though.

Also if somewhat normal international flights resume with rising passenger number, then at least the start of this quarantine capacity will be required.

 

[p--and--t]

I don’t understand why we are chartering long haul flights?? There are thousands of spare seats already flying in to SYD, why not pick up the quarantine pax from there and fly them to darwin?

I would hazard a guess a guaranteed seat on a plane that will not be cancelled, sold at a fixed price where the payment can be deferred, organised under the auspices of the AU Gov, that will not be changed or cancelled, without a stop mid way where there may be complications if they insist upon a test for transit passengers, would be far more attractive to to those who are stuck overseas as opposed to the current situation with their seats at exorbitant rates being repeatedly cancelled and prices jacked up.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The truth of it is, Australia is a tourist destination, $60b a year they need to give their B*lls a tug and give a date when they are going to open up, this is a virus that you have to get tested to even see if you have it, that has 99% survival rate and we are shutting down the entire fkin world because of it.

if we continue to live by these rules then then next swine flu or bird flu, are we shutting down the entire global economy and travel again? if thats the case we really are going to be screwed not just in 2021 but forever!

 

[p--and--t]

I wonder what the solution is then... Plenty of empty hotels in the Gold Coast? FNQ? Because even if Darwin was run at full capacity it would take over 2 years at current rates to clear the backlog...

There are heaps of hotels rooms sitting vacant in Cairns as well. However if a requirement is to have a robust health facility available, then that's not an option. Cairns has >4 hour waits in emergency before children with serious injuries being seen and parents being told to take them home and "come back tomorrow because we are short staffed".

 

[p--and--t]

The truth of it is, Australia is a tourist destination, $60b a year they need to give their B*lls a tug and give a date when they are going to open up, this is a virus that you have to get tested to even see if you have it, that has 99% survival rate and we are shutting down the entire fkin world because of it.

if we continue to live by these rules then then next swine flu or bird flu, are we shutting down the entire global economy and travel again? if thats the case we really are going to be screwed not just in 2021 but forever!

Yet there were figures quoted the other day that Australians in total spend far more on holidays overseas each year than overseas visitors to Australia spent holidaying in Australia. i.e. a next export of Aussie $$ out of the economy.

That fact of course doesn't help businesses geared for overseas tourists and those that are currently unable to pivot to the domestic market because of state border closures.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Yet there were figures quoted the other day that Australians in total spend far more on holidays overseas each year than overseas visitors to Australia spent holidaying in Australia. i.e. a next export of Aussie $$ out of the economy.

That fact of course doesn't help businesses geared for overseas tourists and those that are currently unable to pivot to the domestic market because of state border closures.

I see your overseas spending and I raise you international students lol, not just the exorbitant fees they pay but also the rent they provide, general spending while here etc etc

 

[dajop]

The truth of it is, Australia is a tourist destination, $60b a year they need to give their B*lls a tug and give a date when they are going to open up, this is a virus that you have to get tested to even see if you have it, that has 99% survival rate and we are shutting down the entire fkin world because of it.

If you look at the figures State of the Industry | Tourism Research Australia the inbound tourism was worth $44bn, and outbound $64bn! So maybe not as clear cut as both are stopped. But looking into the figures if you look at potential bubble countries they are worth $10bn, or $22bn if you believe China and include them in the figures (although that was probably going to decline anyway).

Post automatically merged: Oct 15, 2020

I see your overseas spending and I raise you international students lol, not just the exorbitant fees they pay but also the rent they provide, general spending while here etc etc

They will find a way to make this happen. Just have to work out how to sell it to the public.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

The Aussie / NZ response has put us in a position that the economy will be absolutely crippled until a vaccine is created, we are so far down the hole now,

If you look at the figures State of the Industry | Tourism Research Australia the inbound tourism was worth $44bn, and outbound $64bn! So maybe not as clear cut as both are stopped. But looking into the figures if you look at potential bubble countries they are worth $10bn, or $22bn if you believe China and include them in the figures (although that was probably going to decline anyway).

Post automatically merged: Oct 15, 2020

They will find a way to make this happen. Just have to work out how to sell it to the public.

 

[p--and--t]

I see your overseas spending and I raise you international students lol, not just the exorbitant fees they pay but also the rent they provide, general spending while here etc etc

I'm not even close to any of the economics or the respective industries however from various media reports and political maneuvering over recent months I will speculate:

I think chinese student market is fairly well stuffed regardless of travel bans, covid etc with the CCP, by series of a thousand deliberate cuts, is slashing the volume of yuan coming Australia's way; students included with wine, beef, iron, tourism, etc generally. Chinese tourism was a major component of our hospitality industry pre covid and I am of the opinion the CCP with be throttling that with any & all tools at its disposal until there is a major improvement in international relations. In addition to that, the abandonment of student support by all governments in AU during the pandemic has resulted in a huge backlash on social media in China against the country and we no longer hold the same favoured destination status for education

India has a long way to go with the pandemic and the flow of students from there could slow dramatically regardless of border issues, particularly as the Indian economy is damaged and those from families that were "just managing" the costs before are impacted. Quarantine costs in and out combined with the current airline rip off fares may hammer the nail in the coffin for many thousands.

Domestic tourism possibly could surge once the internal borders are sorted with significant pent up demand making up for a large proportion of international visitors.

A bubble with NZ and the pacific (depending on quarantine rules) would be more beneficial to AU than anyone else and be revenue positive to AU.

 

[NZflygirl]

So the centre will churn out 500 people every fortnight, assuming a majority of those will leave Darwin almost straight away...

WA will have to open its borders to the NT to repatriate its own citizens..... surely they wouldn't make them quarantine again in Perth?

Qantas will probably have to put on more flights from Darwin to other states as well to clear them out! (every fortnight)

WA was allowing people to quarantine at home while encouraging them to take up a new app for police to monitor them.

Gives Qantas some business both international and domestic

I’m a bit stumped as to why Australia has Air NZ flying cargo for them from BNE-LAX. Thought that would have gone to Qantas. Although sometimes the flight returns to NZ as a passenger flight.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I'm not even close to any of the economics or the respective industries however from various media reports and political maneuvering over recent months I will speculate:

I think chinese student market is fairly well stuffed regardless of travel bans, covid etc with the CCP, by series of a thousand deliberate cuts, is slashing the volume of yuan coming Australia's way; students included with wine, beef, iron, tourism, etc generally. Chinese tourism was a major component of our hospitality industry pre covid and I am of the opinion the CCP with be throttling that with any & all tools at its disposal until there is a major improvement in international relations. In addition to that, the abandonment of student support by all governments in AU during the pandemic has resulted in a huge backlash on social media in China against the country and we no longer hold the same favoured destination status for education

India has a long way to go with the pandemic and the flow of students from there could slow dramatically regardless of border issues, particularly as the Indian economy is damaged and those from families that were "just managing" the costs before are impacted. Quarantine costs in and out combined with the current airline rip off fares may hammer the nail in the coffin for many thousands.

Domestic tourism possibly could surge once the internal borders are sorted with significant pent up demand making up for a large proportion of international visitors.

A bubble with NZ and the pacific (depending on quarantine rules) would be more beneficial to AU than anyone else and be revenue positive to AU.

I agree with some but not all of that.

I think there is way too much investment both in regard to people and capital now in AU from CN. So many families and honestly alot of people in CN looking for a 'good way' out. I think the students will be back at the first opportunity to do so.

My overall gripe is the longer this goes on the better the treatments get, the easier the testing is to do, how long do we stay crippled.

I already missed seeing my family for my 40th, i'll be beyond pissed if i cant get home for my mum's 70th in June.

Let people make their own decisions, if there is a mandatory quarantine upon return, fair enough. but right now as it stands i literally do not have permission of a state to leave it, this is going on for 7 months now with AU having less than 1000 deaths?????

I know we dont have a bill of rights but FFS.

at Least Dani Minogue was allowed to skip quarantine so at least we are all being treated equally.

 

[dajop]

I’m a bit stumped as to why Australia has Air NZ flying cargo for them from BNE-LAX. Thought that would have gone to Qantas. Although sometimes the flight returns to NZ as a passenger flight.

Cost?

 

[hb13]

I know I have said it before, but somehow, someway, the government needs to realise that a vaccine isn't coming soon and Covid is going to be around for YEARS.

Tourism is not the only thing impacted by the ridiculous ban and caps we have in place. The rest of the world will start to move forward soon and Australia will just stay as a hermit nation still waiting till there are 0 cases worldwide before allowing people in or out of the country.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

I know I have said it before, but somehow, someway, the government needs to realise that a vaccine isn't coming soon and Covid is going to be around for YEARS.

Tourism is not the only thing impacted by the ridiculous ban and caps we have in place. The rest of the world will start to move forward soon and Australia will just stay as a hermit nation still waiting till there are 0 cases worldwide before allowing people in or out of the country.

Exactly this.

Perfect is the enemy of Good.

We need a good / great answer to this problem, cutting off from the rest of the world waiting for it to be perfect is a stupid pipe dream

 

[NZflygirl]

Cost?

BNE-LAX is cargo only but I just thought Qantas would have picked that up. Can’t recall the LAX cost but you can still purchase LAX-AKL and at the moment onwards to SYD on the quarantine flight.

 

[drron]

I agree with some but not all of that.

I think there is way too much investment both in regard to people and capital now in AU from CN. So many families and honestly alot of people in CN looking for a 'good way' out. I think the students will be back at the first opportunity to do so.

My overall gripe is the longer this goes on the better the treatments get, the easier the testing is to do, how long do we stay crippled.

I already missed seeing my family for my 40th, i'll be beyond pissed if i cant get home for my mum's 70th in June.

Let people make their own decisions, if there is a mandatory quarantine upon return, fair enough. but right now as it stands i literally do not have permission of a state to leave it, this is going on for 7 months now with AU having less than 1000 deaths?????

I know we dont have a bill of rights but FFS.

at Least Dani Minogue was allowed to skip quarantine so at least we are all being treated equally.

You need to read Silent Invasion by Clive Hamilton.No right wing nut job but a former Greens candidate.
Both the ALP and LNP have their skeletons in the closet.

 

[Sydney BE]

My overall gripe is the longer this goes on the better the treatments get, the easier the testing is to do, how long do we stay crippled.

At the moment it seems the only way they will open borders is if there is a vaccine. I think that is likely a long way away before a globally available vaccine has been given to everyone and is effective.

There will come a time that Australia needs to accept a level of covid cases being normal. At the moment it seems a lot of Australian support is for the border to remain closed.

I hope you get to see your mum for her 70th next June.

 

[hb13]

Exactly this.

Perfect is the enemy of Good.

We need a good / great answer to this problem, cutting off from the rest of the world waiting for it to be perfect is a stupid pipe dream

Completely agree. But the Australian government won't wake up. And I fear when they do it'll be too late.

There will be nothing left. And that's when they will wake up.

Frankly pathetic and criminal. Just hearing about the mental issues this is causing, let alone the economic disaster staring us in the face leaves me speechless.

 

[jakeseven7]

At the moment it seems the only way they will open borders is if there is a vaccine. I think that is likely a long way away before a globally available vaccine has been given to everyone and is effective.

There will come a time that Australia needs to accept a level of covid cases being normal. At the moment it seems a lot of Australian support is for the border to remain closed.

I hope you get to see your mum for her 70th next June.

At the moment I’d settle for just trying to get into Perth to see family before I even dream of seeing overseas family again!

 

[hb13]

At the moment it seems the only way they will open borders is if there is a vaccine. I think that is likely a long way away before a globally available vaccine has been given to everyone and is effective.

There will come a time that Australia needs to accept a level of covid cases being normal. At the moment it seems a lot of Australian support is for the border to remain closed.

I hope you get to see your mum for her 70th next June.

I'd love to see my family - I was hoping to see them some time early next year, however, I think it will be 2022 at this stage before current restrictions are eased for international travelers into Australia - maybe apart from Singapore/HK/Japan and a few others - where I think there may be a travel bubble established middle of 2021.