Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Basically those nations didn't lock down.South Korea did close schools but not restaurants or offices.
So they are continuing extensive tracking and testing.From what i have read both were ready for ramping up tracking of contacts quickly.We took a lot longer.
So basically they do not have to make many changes.

The thing that I think goes against us is in general our population aren't as likely to continue measures such as distancing and haven't really taken up the wearing of masks.

As for foreign travellers they have said it depends on the situation in other countries and they have said they don't see travel to Europe happening soon.They haven't said anything about the USA but both Taiwan and South Korea do depend on the US for Defence.

Lockdown seems to be used differently in different countries. Australia certainly has not lockdowned like say Italy, the UK or NZ did.

However South Korea did close down more than schools, though not as much activity as Australia did.
Scores of events -- from K-pop concerts to sports seasons -- had been delayed or cancelled, while museums and galleries were closed and religious services suspended.


Like Australia South Korea seem to be in the process of relaxing their social distancing measures;

I was mainly asking about the future and in short in a week or two it would seem that our approach going forward is going to be quite similar to South Korea's:
  • ample testing
  • have a high ability to contact trace, including the use of technology
  • jump on hotspots, including quarantining any close contacts of known cases

As such, instead of physical lockdown, we fought the virus through an epidemiological approach such as wide diagnostic testing and isolation of contacts, while encouraging people’s voluntary cooperation for social distancing.

Remember that Australia could not go this way initially as we:
1/ Did not have access to vast quantities of tests ( We rapidly ramped up and going forward will soon have another 10 million tests available. So we can now test at high levels. Early on we could not)
2/ Did not have ample contact tracing resources ( Our public health had some, but thousands of extra staff have now been hired and trained. The ADF was called in, but will ultimately go back)
3/ Did not have Covid Safe.
4/ Had a population less used to past viral outbreaks and so put in place more rules and mandates, rather than seeking voluntary following of guidelines (though in Australia much was volunatary as well).

ScoMo has indicated that we needed all of the first three of the above in order to reactivate things.

3/ Is probably more important to Australia as the main difference is that privacy issues will not allow us to use ICT as much as South Korea did/will.

ICT plays a decisive role in accurately identifying people and swiftly locating their contacts. For example, tracing them through credit card usage, CCTV, mobile phone location tracing, and so on helps us to learn about a patient’s travel time, route and location quickly, and can also help to identify close contacts of the patient. The faster we find the contacts, the better we are able to stem further spread of the virus.

Having said that ICT is being used here in Australia where the law allows as for example:
  • Brother In Law had flu like symptoms this week. With the expansion of who can be tested he went to one of the free public testing sites that have been set up to do 100,000 tests in 14 days. He was instructed to drive straight home and self-isolate till the test results where known which he did.
  • Later another person was driving his car and was pulled up by the police wanting to know why they were breaching the self-isolation instruction! A quick ID check verified that this was not so. But it did demonstrate that the BIL's car rego had been entered into a database that the police were using and presumably his car had been identified by scanning of number plates!

While masks is one difference, in Australia as Covid 19 never became common the wearing of masks to help stop its spread was not recommended. Yes with the flu and common cold it would be a good habit in future if Australians adopted mask wearing to minimise spread. from those with symptoms

At present I think South Korea still requires 14 day quarantine for all inbound passengers.

Stronger measures for infection prevention and control of overseas entrants
In light of the increasing number of COVID-19 patients and confirmed cases among incoming arrivals, the Korean government imposed a mandatory 14 day quarantine on all passengers arriving from all parts of the world from 00:00, April 1.
 
But it did demonstrate that the BIL's car rego had been entered into a database that the police were using
Interesting. Assume that's VIC based on the 100k in 14 days.
Guess its no different to the list they use for expired plates or known loss of licences
 
"You have to give Qatar Airways and the state of Qatar credit. Doha was never closed, unlike other major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Singapore, Hong Kong, among others, and the airline has continued to provide much-needed connectivity between countries that allow incoming and outgoing traffic getting people back to their homes.

Make no mistake. Even the Gulf Airlines, usually referred to as ME3 (Emirates, Etihad & Qatar Airways), are not immune to the Covid-19, and the subsequent recession that has already set in.

It has been estimated that it will take anywhere from 3 to 5 years for the air traffic to recover to the December 2019 level."

 
As I understood the most promising lab SARS vaccine failed miserably in animal testing, actually exacerbating some symptoms.

Also not clear how long being infected, or having a vaccine, will actually provide protection for.
The common cold (also a coronavirus) only gives you immunity for 3-6 months

I thought the common cold was actually caused by a bunch of different things, hence the difficulty in creating a vaccine for it.
 
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Again with the fearmongering.
Just because there is not currently a working, usable human vaccine for a coronavirus, it does NOT mean that there won't be, or can't be. The primary reason there isn't is because there has been no funding and/or a lack of test subjects. Both SARS and MERS had promising vaccines in development. Both have working vaccines in animals.
.....

The constant yelling that there "has never been a working coronavirus vaccine" and subsequent suggestions that there won't or can't be just demonstrates a failure to understand why that is the case and ignores any progress there has been done to develop one.
Not sure where the 'constant yelling' you refer to is but hoping is not any way to plan in a pandemic. A 'Plan B' if there is no vaccine discovered that is safe and can be scaled up - must be prepared.

Yes this time might be different - but I would not bet the house on that being correct. If there is no vaccine then a detailed Plan B needs to already have been devised.

Politicians normally say what they think their swing voters want to hear - whether it is about interest rates increasing, power prices decreasing, housing becoming more affordable etc etc. When lifes & livelihoods are at stake - that's unacceptable.

As Q has shown, they're leaning towards Plan B as the outcome. They've raised another $500m in the last few days, on top of the $1.2bn+ raised in April on top of their existing credit lines. They are preparing for the worst and hoping for a pleasant surprise.
 
Like you, I have staff over there in MNL.
Out of interest, when do you expect to be flying into MNL the earliest. I am thinking of early July or early August.

My next flight (certain to cancel/postpone) is May 26.... However, I am still hopeful about the flight after that ( August 04) . The word I hear is that Business travel will resume long before toursit travel.
 
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So the press conference this afternoon has domestic interstate travel, in theory, recommencing mid-July. But when asked about international travel, ScoMo said, "I can't see that happening any time soon. There's nothing on our radar which would see us opening up international travel in the foreseeable future."
 
After todays announcement clear no international travel until at the very earliest last few months of this year - at best.
 
So the press conference this afternoon has domestic interstate travel, in theory, recommencing mid-July. But when asked about international travel, ScoMo said, "I can't see that happening any time soon. There's nothing on our radar which would see us opening up international travel in the foreseeable future."

There is already a list of acceptable EXCEPTIONS to request permission for outbound travel. Watch as that list grows, and becomes more flexible to accommodate more types of "business travel". Tourism and travel-for-leisure will never be on that list.
 
Tourism and travel-for-leisure will never be on that list.

That's quite an overstatement.

Leisure travel internationally will resume, just not as fast and will be I expect on a "bubble" or acceptable destination basis.
 
I’d suggest leisure and business travel will be back by October... but with 14 days isolation on return
 
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Like you, I have staff over there in MNL.
Out of interest, when do you expect to be flying into MNL the earliest. I am thinking of early July or early August.
Leisure travel internationally will resume, just not as fast and will be I expect on a "bubble" or acceptable destination basis.


The current criteria for which you can apply for an exemption to the non-travel rules :
  • your travel is as part of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak, including the provision of aid
  • your travel is essential for the conduct of critical industries and business (including export and import industries)
  • you are travelling to receive urgent medical treatment that is not available in Australia
  • you are travelling on urgent and unavoidable personal business
  • compassionate or humanitarian grounds
  • your travel is in the national interest.

It already includes "export and import industries". I'm just saying that the current written rules can even remain as they are, and if there is some leniency about how that particular criteria is subjectively applied it would mean some business travel (e.g. mine) could be allowed... I do not see any criteria in there that would apply to leisure travel no many what interpretation is used... Just my opinion. YMMV.
 
The current criteria
I do not see any [CURRENT] criteria in there that would apply to leisure travel no many what interpretation is used

....things will be changing every 2-4 weeks over coming months and restrictions will be amended and so today's restrictions (criteria) will not longer be current.

Wholesale unrestricted leisure travel to anywhere is unlikely before the end of first quarter next year, but the general no fly ban will have some exceptions for the leisure traveller by 4th quarter this year (just a prediction - no inside info).
 
The current criteria for which you can apply for an exemption to the non-travel rules :
  • your travel is as part of the response to the COVID-19 outbreak, including the provision of aid
  • your travel is essential for the conduct of critical industries and business (including export and import industries)
  • you are travelling to receive urgent medical treatment that is not available in Australia
  • you are travelling on urgent and unavoidable personal business
  • compassionate or humanitarian grounds
  • your travel is in the national interest.

It already includes "export and import industries". I'm just saying that the current written rules can even remain as they are, and if there is some leniency about how that particular criteria is subjectively applied it would mean some business travel (e.g. mine) could be allowed... I do not see any criteria in there that would apply to leisure travel no many what interpretation is used... Just my opinion. YMMV.
As I understand it, the granting of exemption (as opposed to simply being eligible to "apply for an exemption") at the moment is extremely tight. You're right in that that may change (ScoMo mentioned today that it could be extended to include international students). Even if this occurs, Prof Murphy stated today that ongoing quarantine measures (eg 14 days on arrival into Aust) would remain. One of them (not sure who?) mentioned that they would be looking at how this would be funded in the future - reading between the lines, I wouldn't expect the various Govts to pick up the tab ongoing for a 14 day hotel stay for those arriving back in Australia.

Potential NZ bubble (+ Pacific Islands?) notwithstanding...
 
I’d suggest leisure and business travel will be back by October... but with 14 days isolation on return

I would suggest that would be to selective destinations only.
Eventually we will see testing before allowed to enter Australia, but I think October is not a forseeable future, as a vaccine will be available by then, according to Oxford University.
 
as a vaccine will be available by then, according to Oxford University.

Sorry, that is absolute rubbish. The Oxford University has said they hope to get sufficient data to get a result of their testing within six months from now. That is not a proven approved developed manufactured distributed and administered vaccine. No-where anywhere near it.

"When will the results be available?

To assess whether the vaccine works to protect from COVID-19, the statisticians in our team will compare the number of infections in the control group with the number of infections in the vaccinated group. For this purpose, it is necessary for a small number of study participants to develop COVID-19. How quickly we reach the numbers required will depend on the levels of virus transmission in the community. If transmission remains high, we may get enough data in a couple of months to see if the vaccine works, but if transmission levels drop, this could take up to 6 months."

 
Eventually we will see testing before allowed to enter Australia,

Testing would have to be couple with some period of isolation, to allow time for the virus to be able to reliably detected after initial exposure.
 
I thought the common cold was actually caused by a bunch of different things, hence the difficulty in creating a vaccine for it.
It is. There are over 200 different viruses across 8 different groups that cause colds. The most common is rhinovirus of which there are 99 known types.
Any immunity gained after recovering from a cold only works for that 1 virus, and immunity for each cold virus lasts for different periods. You can be immune to one type of cold causing virus and get a cold from a different cold causing virus.
 

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