How will international travel work with no COVID 19 vaccine

[JohnM]

Yet in 1920 things were back to normal to start the Swinging Twenties.

Make that the Roaring Twenties and the Swinging Sixties...

You were clearly in the latter, as you can't remember...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Coronavirus: How will airlines get flying again?

Coronavirus: How will airlines get flying again?

When passenger planes start flying again, the world of air travel will be very different.

www.bbc.com

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yet in 1920 things were back to normal to start the Swinging Twenties.
It will not take vaccine availability to return to a semblance of normality.

I believe the consensus is that the rapidly mutating virus (Spanish Flu) likely evolved over time into less lethal strains and that is why after 3 deadly waves it disappeared (or rather it evolved into less deadly strains).

So yes we can just sit back and hope the so far very stable CV19 evolves into a less deadly form and that this hopefully will not take many years. If it does not evolve, or evolves more slowly.....

Or rather hopefully a vaccine or vaccines can be developed and/or effective treatments (which were not available with the Spanish Flu) so that the effect is less.

One point of difference in the history with the two viruses is that with the Spanish Flu that it was not curtailed in Australia in the first wave such as is being done this time. Hopefully vaccines and treatment will be another two points of difference.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Wikipedia has a chronological account of Spanish Flu worldwide that describes four waves over about 3 years in total. Unfortunately it seems the second wave was much worse than the first. Hanrahan, who would delight in such stories, would have it so always. But later waves were progressively milder.

Also interesting is the account of Black Death, which raged through Europe off and on from 1347 to the 1660s, and no doubt elsewhere. With of course later outbreaks including the one in Sydney. Completely different disease of course, and there have been a few improvements in medicine since the 14th century. But interesting that each successive wave after the first in 1347 tended to be weaker, as I presume herd immunity built up.

The third chapter in the Hanrahan trilogy might be the Plague of Justinian whose first wave in Europe was in 541-42, named after the Byzantine Emperor Justinian I.

Interesting pair, Justinian and his plague. Istanbul wouldn't be the same without the Hagia Sofia, which he had built. The plague hampered his attempt to resurrect the Roman Empire (he took Italy from the Ostrogoths in 535). He also caught his namesake plague, but survived.

Whoops, might have wandered off topic, but that can happen when you're an iso reading wikipedia.

cheers skip

 

[CityRail]

Oxford scientists say they will know if vaccine works within six weeks
Scientists working on a vaccine against coronavirus could know within six weeks whether it will work, they have said.
RELATED ARTICLE

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Oxford vaccine test results 'expected in six weeks' after experimental jabs
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Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at Oxford University, said "several hundred" Britons have now been given the experimental jab, with hopes that "signals" about whether it works could emerge by mid-June.
The vaccine is being developed in partnership between Oxford University and biopharmaceutical companyAstraZeneca.
The competition for vaccines meant shortages of such products, meaning a "big and powerful [manufacturing] partner" was needed in order to compete if the trials prove successful, Professor Bell told BBC Radio.
On the other side of the Atlantic, earlier this morning philanthropost Bill Gates said a COVID-19 vaccine could be feasible within nine months.
Writing in a blog post, Gates said he agreed with the US infectious diseases expert Dr Anthony Fauci, who thinks a vaccine will take around 18 months to develop.
"I agree with him, though it could be as little as nine months or as long as two years," Gates said.
Gates said up to ten of the 115 vaccine candidates "look particularly promising" and set out an explanation for how the timeline to produce a vaccine is being compressed.
with Latika Bourke, The Telegraph UK

Quoted from SMH news feed.

So we might have a vaccine in 6 weeks time!

 

[JohnM]

So we might have a vaccine in 6 weeks time!

 

[lovetravellingoz]

So we might have a vaccine in 6 weeks time!

No we will not. Even the article you posted stated:

"They have vaccinated several hundred people now, and we hope to get some signal about whether it's working by the middle of June."

As you have been advised now many times, vaccines need to go through many stages before they will be rolled out widely. So this will push that particular vaccine to much later.


Bill Gates has been a strong advocate of better preparation for many years and also prediction that a major pandemic would arrive. He is a major funder of vaccine research. So he has very good knowledge of what it takes to develop a vaccine. You might find it useful to read and/or listen to what he had just said this week:


Gates said he’s optimistic a safe and effective vaccine could emerge in 18 months, though it could be as short as 9 months or up to two years. It also doesn’t have to be perfect at first, and it can take time to develop a refined vaccine.

Bill Gates says this is what you need to know about a coronavirus vaccine

Bill Gates Says Virus Vaccine Could Take as Little as 9 Months

Bill Gates, whose foundation is focusing its efforts to fight the coronavirus, doesn’t think life will return to normal until there’s a viable vaccine that can stop its spread. The good news is that it may take less time than many have been predicting.

www.bloomberg.com

I know from your posts that you want to visit family overseas and so we understand your need and anguish, but a vaccine is most likely to be unable to assist you in this in 2020. The most optimistic forecast is first deployment in Jan 2021. And when a vaccine is ready to be deployed there will be a queue for it billions long and so the odds of any one person getting it quickly will be very small. Health workers first, those under immediate threat next......and way back in the queue will be discretionary travellers.

Living in relatively wealthy like Australia though will mean that we will most likely all be closer to the front of the queue than the back of the queue though.

But then again if a USA Company is the one that rolls it out, just watch Trump (if he is still President) try and enact the Defense Production Act to seize all vaccinations for USA use. He did this with 3M and PPE masks even though the 3M factories were in China and there were orders in pace by others.

 

[Dee#]

Maybe if no vaccine eventuates you just need to catch it in australia with medical help here, pray you don't die and just endup with a modicum of immunity before you jump on a plane overseas. Im retired and was hoping to travel the world, not be stuck at home for years.

 

[Dee#]

Reckon the vacant middle seat is good idea. For a couple a 3 economy seat purchase (1500 full economy or less) is far better value than 2 in domestic business (4000) on 737.

 

[woodborer]

Reckon the vacant middle seat is good idea. For a couple a 3 economy seat purchase (1500 full economy or less) is far better value than 2 in domestic business (4000) on 737.

So the 3-3-3 configuration in the 787 was forward thinking

 

[Timtammi]

We won't. It will no longer be covered. I've had to cancel two trips (March and July); had family members lose their jobs, and have had to apply for JobKeeper for our long term family business. Travel is so far down on my priority right now. And I lived for travel.

Same pushka, same.. sad..but gotta remind ourselves how fortunate we really are.

 

[Himeno]

Quoted from SMH news feed.

So we might have a vaccine in 6 weeks time!

That just means that we might have a vaccine ready for stage 3 testing in 6 weeks.

 

[CityRail]

That just means that we might have a vaccine ready for stage 3 testing in 6 weeks.

My understanding is that the rollout of a vaccine will take 4 stages, so if we can get into Stage 3 testing in 6 weeks, that's still at unbelievable speed which might indicate the vaccine is ready to roll out by September.

Yet pessimistically speaking, there are 3 variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, so I am not sure whether we will be able to prevent one, yet unable to stop the spread of the other variants.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Well, here’s one prophesy about changes in travel from an apocryphal source.
5 ways travel will change forever in the future due to coronavirus

The seat in the picture might make a middle seat palatable, but I think they haven’t thought of those who would like to sit together. As for the prophecies in the article, removal of in flight magazines seems plausible, not sure about the rest.

cheers skip

 

[p--and--t]

Well, here’s one prophesy about changes in travel from an apocryphal source.
5 ways travel will change forever in the future due to coronavirus

The seat in the picture might make a middle seat palatable, but I think they haven’t thought of those who would like to sit together. As for the prophecies in the article, removal of in flight magazines seems plausible, not sure about the rest.

cheers skip

1A still looks like the best seat in that pic

 

[JohnM]

My understanding is that the rollout of a vaccine will take 4 stages, so if we can get into Stage 3 testing in 6 weeks, that's still at unbelievable speed which might indicate the vaccine is ready to roll out by September.

Yet pessimistically speaking, there are 3 variant of the SARS-Cov-2 virus, so I am not sure whether we will be able to prevent one, yet unable to stop the spread of the other variants.

I, like others here, admire your great optimism.

But it clashes with this sentence:

Hanging hopes on the development and large-scale production of a safe and effective vaccine within the next few years is an exercise in unbounded optimism.

That was taken from this, that I recommend that you read from beginning to end for a full reality check: What are we learning from the coronavirus? | Inside Story

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I, like others here, admire your great optimism.

Well... I too share that optimism. Sure, we could all sit around and poo-poo every glimmer of hope, but I'm not sure that achieves much. Being optimistic is far more enjoyable

 

[JohnM]

Well... I too share that optimism. Sure, we could all sit around and poo-poo every glimmer of hope, but I'm not sure that achieves much. Being optimistic is far more enjoyable

It's got nothing to do with poo-pooing "every glimmer of hope".

It's all about rationalism and reality.

When those 'hopes' are in complete defiance of scientific reality - but which is demonstrably at risk of being manipulated by every Mickey Mouse research outfit all over the place as 'world-first' 'breakthroughs' raising totally unrealistic expectations, facilitated by their morally bereft PR departments and an ignorant and breathless media in the process - people need to be informed about the true reality.

All that - and more - is embedded in that article.

 

[Dee#]

1A still looks like the best seat in that pic

Note- they are all small thin people in the seats In the pictures. No fatties or muscle bound with shoulders that wouldn't fit in the plastic compartment around the middle seat .

 

[lovetravellingoz]

That was taken from this, that I recommend that you read from beginning to end for a full reality check: What are we learning from the coronavirus? | Inside Story

Another point in that is:

Most virologists believe that immunity against SARS-CoV-2 will last only a year or two, in line with other coronaviruses that infect humans. That means that even if most people do eventually become exposed to the virus, it is still likely to become endemic, with seasonal peaks of infection.

Which means if true that herd immunity from being exposed to the virus will most likely not be an effective goal.

It also means that being exposed to the virus will not allow "travel passports" other than for very short term use.