Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

[Captain Halliday]

Little typo. I’ve fixed it for you

Tiger is an unnecessary distraction.

Just like R Branson.

 

[Melburnian1]

My posts are consistent. If VA does not resurface then that makes Q's weak hand a little stronger - but still a weak hand.

..Now is definitely not the time to be found to be over-valuing.

In doing a plane by plane reconciliation at the time - it became clear that Q seems to have a unique approach to 'valuing' their aircraft', and the movements had an uncanny correlation with reported P&L in a most inventive way. After all, it does seem unusual to have a 21 year old B747 valued in the balance sheet at more than it cost when purchased in the early 1990s DESPITE claiming depn on it every year?

Especially when Q states it uses straight line depreciation on planes & parts over a range of 2 to 20 years.

Is it a Ponzi scheme of sorts? Who knows but 1 + 1 ALWAYS = 2 eventually. In Australia we have a long record of Top 100 companies getting their annual reports signed off by the external auditors year after year - and the company then goes under often accompanied by an 'irregularity' in their accounts.

Looking at the cash flow is normally a good guide. Q raised around $1.4bn by selling of the remaining Terminal leases for Brisbane, Melbourne & Sydney. Over the same time they bought back over 30% of outstanding shares. Looking at their balance sheet and off-balance sheet liabilities - does not fit the description of looking very strong...

Time will tell how this all pans out - but Q isn't as safe as the spin may say or many hope. If there's a run on their QFF points then their credit rating is likely to go below investment grade aka become junk.

Of course, international flying might recommence with 78% plus loads from 1 July 2020 but I don't think so. Similarly I don't see any of the European Govts, Asian nor the US doing Q any favours once borders eventually reopen.

RAM, an outstanding and most informative post.

If memory serves me correctly, some BIg 4 audit firms are under investigation for poor auditing practicies.

You will be proven correct re international flights (largely) not resuming by 1 July 2020. QFi can't make overseas govts change their minds even if Oz (and NZ) supposedly have coronavirus 'under control.'

 

[Stealthflyer]

Interesting post, so you think VAi will remain, really?

I’ve read a few news stories that have suggested that the “lucrative” transpacific flights might continue. They don’t cite any figures though.

 

[antycbr]

I’ve read a few news stories that have suggested that the “lucrative” transpacific flights might continue. They don’t cite any figures though.

Flying to a destination that is a coronavirus hotspot sounds risky.

But if you own 4 x 777's what do you do with them instead? Market for used 77Ws is non-existent.

 

[AIRwin]

But if you own 4 x 777's what do you do with them instead?

Resume JNB replacing SAA?

 

[HS-TQE]

Resume JNB replacing SAA?

ETOPS issues was one of the many reasons for the then 'V Australia" pull out. ETOPS restrctions from memory also restricted payloads in one direction.

 

[oz_mark]

SO lets list the potential new owners of VA that have popped up in the news:

- EY (in partnership with PE)
- Wesfarmers
- Lindsay Fox (+ Vic Gov, but they have reportedly pulled out for time being)
- Macquarie Group
- Virgin Group (sigh)
- Various PE groups

Have I missed any??

I am not sure Virgin will be doing it in their own right - they will be tacked on to one (or more) of the others

 

[jakeseven7]

I’ve read a few news stories that have suggested that the “lucrative” transpacific flights might continue. They don’t cite any figures though.

Yes we have heard Trans pac flights were being hit hard from a few sources but for a while it was doing quite well.

 

[serfty]

But if you own 4 x 777's what do you do with them instead? Market for used 77Ws is non-existent.

Not sure about the future but in the short term apparently they can generate revenue via long haul freight.

VH-VPD Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Track VH-VPD flight from Maastricht Aachen to Enschede Twente

flightaware.com

 

[HS-TQE]

Just in: John Thomas considering "Challenging" Paul Scurrah for the CEO role of "VA Mk II" post-administration. (Hmm, VSpill?)

Source (Paywall if 'free' article quota used up):

Ex-Virgin Australia contender would run Virgin Mark II

John Thomas has thrown his hat in the ring to run Virgin's as a bidding war for the airline heats up.

www.afr.com

 

[milehighclub]

Not sure about the future but in the short term apparently they can generate revenue via long haul freight.

Not sure they are generating revenue, but rather operating at no cost as the Government is subsidising these flights. The other day I read that the first LAX-BNE flight had 55 passengers. I imagine VA follows a similar policy to QF in that Business is blocked off from all passengers as well as practicing social distancing in regards to seating. (This brings QF capacity to around 120 for the 787).

Of course any aircraft not sitting around and at least making operating costs is better than aircraft that are costing airlines money.

 

[serfty]

Not sure they are generating revenue, but rather operating at no cost as the Government is subsidising these flights. The other day I read that the first LAX-BNE flight had 55 passengers. I imagine VA follows a similar policy to QF in that Business is blocked off from all passengers as well as practicing social distancing in regards to seating. (This brings QF capacity to around 120 for the 787).

It's not the PAX, its the freight ...

 

[HS-TQE]

The 2x 77Ws that were fitted with the small cargo doors (as opposed to the standard doors on the other 3x 77Ws) could be temporarily converted as a freighter in the short/medium term?

Saying that, temporarily converting some 77Ws to freighters would have to depend if a post-administration VAH could pick up some freighter contracts.

This would be leaving the remaining x3 77Ws for passenger services.

 

[Melburnian1]

Not sure they are generating revenue, but rather operating at no cost as the Government is subsidising these flights. The other day I read that the first LAX-BNE flight had 55 passengers. I imagine VA follows a similar policy to QF in that Business is blocked off from all passengers as well as practicing social distancing in regards to seating. (This brings QF capacity to around 120 for the 787).

Of course any aircraft not sitting around and at least making operating costs is better than aircraft that are costing airlines money.

VAi and QFi would have to be receiving a margin from the Federal Government for operating these flights. I'm guessing 15 per cent on top of the subsidy required?

 

[hydrabyss]

VAi and QFi would have to be receiving a margin from the Federal Government for operating these flights. I'm guessing 15 per cent on top of the subsidy required?

Here's a quote I found. Kind of what I would expect out of them.

Although the government funding will ensure the restarted flights don’t operate at a loss, the airlines won’t see a profit either – this ‘minimum domestic network’ is positioned as a break-even affair.

 

[milehighclub]

VAi and QFi would have to be receiving a margin from the Federal Government for operating these flights. I'm guessing 15 per cent on top of the subsidy required?

Nope. They are run purely at cost.

 

[antycbr]

VAi and QFi would have to be receiving a margin from the Federal Government for operating these flights. I'm guessing 15 per cent on top of the subsidy required?

I wonder how creative the charging of oncosts would be, apportioning HR, CASA regulatory, finance etc on to these services if at all allowed by the Commonwealth. Normally each flight would contribute to these.

 

[jakeseven7]

Just in: John Thomas considering "Challenging" Paul Scurrah for the CEO role of "VA Mk II" post-administration. (Hmm, VSpill?)

Source (Paywall if 'free' article quota used up):

Ex-Virgin Australia contender would run Virgin Mark II

John Thomas has thrown his hat in the ring to run Virgin's as a bidding war for the airline heats up.

www.afr.com

JT had some good ideas in his short stint at VA and clearly disagreed with everything JB was doing (which probably makes JT right) so will be interesting to see how this progresses.

 

[antycbr]

ETOPS issues was one of the many reasons for the then 'V Australia" pull out. ETOPS restrctions from memory also restricted payloads in one direction.

South Africa economically is a basket case - they can't keep the lights on 24 x 7 for most of the country.

One possibility depending on how Japan goes is still starting HND - but it's pretty remote you'd think. A 77W is a big aircraft - too big for VA mark 1 when a 777-200LR might have been better.

 

[The-Aviator]

With LAX having a lot of competition, could a 777 make it from SYD or BNE to SEA?

SEA is a DL hub which would be good for connectivity. Fair bit of cargo traffic still possible from there too I imagine.