Will the crisis affect your travel.

[straitman]

From my perspective a relevant question is where we stand compared to ??? years ago.

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't these doom & gloom numbers about where things were approximately 4 years ago :!: That being the case is it really all bad :?:

 

[Evan]

From my perspective a relevant question is where we stand compared to ??? years ago.

Correct me if I'm wrong but aren't these doom & gloom numbers about where things were approximately 4 years ago :!: That being the case is it really all bad :?:

Without looking at the graphs i think were we are now is similar in relation to the USD, but compared to the SGD or the KRW or the JPY we are down, of course not but all that much.
Regardless of this i hope we dont stay this low ! Living in Singapore and getting paid in AUD i have seen the cost of things just jump 30% !

E

 

[serfty]

For me it means my AmexMR/SPG/HHonor/AA points/miles have increased in value.

Where I was planning to have revenue stays o/s I am rechecking and considering points use - especially for hotel stay.

e.g. 20K SPG point-> 25K AA miles ->+USD30->50K HHonors points.

 

[ethernet]

The Airline industry computer yield management systems should already hold the 'deltas'. Anyone care to leak some numbers?
I think the BKK discounting and the Japan deals are telling of weaker non-business 'impulse' outbound traffic.

Yes. With $AUD below $SIN, I won't be staying in Singapore for long, but camping out in JB. But pity some Defence suppliers asked to make good on 30/60 day quotes on imported kit.

Yes, my forward travel is impacted, and I expect 'impulse' holidays, will be shortend - 10 days becomes 7 ect .I cut out a 'whim' trip to BKK - 21 baht = no bargains. At 65 Yen, The Jetstar 'gifts' are also unattractive.

US person commented things always go down after any election result, and probably wont reassess until the new year. I agree with others that the $A should rise. As a hunch, the usd is pumped, and while money is not going into shares, and usd held tighly by 'friends', then the US pays a lot less for long term bonds on a percieved strong dollar (and they need to sell a lot , and again if a round 2 rescue is needed), then it can slide.

Someone made a point about 'not discounting' that cheapens image. The biggest 'crash' in 75 years means some lore will have to be broken, and the annual 'ratcheting' stopped. Will see what the February Doldrums produces.

 

[turtlemichael]

Our situation is not dissimilar to drron's I think. Most of our income comes from sources that have taken a big hit. And sadly, at my age, there is very little opportunity to make up the lost ground assuming any recovery takes a while. So for us, the changes to lifestyle will be long term.

Consequently I cancelled a DONE5 and some associated travel on Friday. The DONE5 was due to start from NRT back to SYD at the end of November. Because of the fall in the Aussie Dollar, I look like I'll make a goodly profit on the transaction which was done at 97 yen to the dollar. :-| That is. when AA and CX get around to recrediting the cash. The inverse is that I'll lose 40K+ Amex MR points.

For us the DONE5 would have ended up costling about AUD70K over the course of the year with 10 or more weeks in US, South Africa and Europe. I can't justify that at the moment.

So I'll be getting my travel thrills from reading QF009's TRs next year. Worse things could happen!

The negative is that it will leave me around 1000 SCs short of of LTG. And I'd fully expect changes to the rules over a longer period which may make it difficult, if not impossible, to attain in the future. But if you ain't travelling, you don't need it.

My WP will last to November 2009 and longer if they take pity on me, and that may be handy for free dinners at the CNS QP rather than the salvos! If you see someone in the corner stuffing bread rolls into his bag, you'll know who it is! :mrgreen:

I do still have repositioning award flights between Australia and the US but, of course, the April one is from LAX to SYD and the July one from CNS to SFO, ie the wrong way around. There is some availability to move one to reverse the order and I'll do that (for 2500 points each) tomorrow just in case there is the opportunity for a US trip later next year.

I'm doing my best not to be too depressed this weekend. At the end of the day, it's only money.

 

[wandering_fred]

Sorry if my earlier comment was a bit obscure....
Yes I will be watching the events carefully as my main super funds are in US$ so the declining AU$ does affect where I will purchase.....
Perhaps for 2009, Australian LONEx fares will be come more useful than BA WT+ exSIN or CX D class ex CMB. Or heaven forbid I may redeem miles..... and lose lounge access status when traveling economy

Time will tell


Fred

 

[medhead]

You may need to explain this logic for me. If the AUD is down then fares purchased in AUD will still be the same. If you purchased an AUD fare with USD then your saving would be significant. 1AUD is still 1AUD. I can't see fares bought with AUD being any cheaper.

I think this is a question of about starting a xONEx in another country such as Japan, South Africa, Indonesia, Phillipines or Singapore. These seem to be the fairly common suggestions. Yes, 1 AUD is 1 AUD but the AUD has been falling against most currencies.

So if we take an example of a Japan DONE3. At the current exchanges rate 656300 yen is $9651. Pretty close to the $10999 (note DONE4) estimate on the oneworld site if purchased in Oz. A few weeks back the Oz was worth more like 100 yen or at least 90 yen. At that level the DONE3 estimate is $7292. Stuffing around with repostioning flights is probably worth it for $3600 but would you do it to save $1300.

Bearing in mind that I couldn't be bothered to (or couldn't easily) find other exchange rate information (history, indonesian or phillipine rates). I think it was a fair question to ask and it certainly is worth checking that a xONEx from the Phillipines is still a good saving.

 

[medhead]

and still no expert has offered any useful information to explain why the A$ is free falling.

Umm, can't say I've seen an expert provide a direct explaination, but isn't the AUD in freefall because everyone needs cash. The world has been pumping cash money in to Australia over the last few years to take advantage of our high interest rates. They've all been siting of official rates from 0 to 3 or 4%, (which makes a joke of low interest rates under John). So they have been sending their cash here to get better earns. Buying AUD, hence AUD increased in value.

Now, no one can borrow cash, so they are getting their cash back out of Australia. Hence everyone is selling AUD and the value of the dollar drops. It makes sense to me, anyway.

As for the dollar going back up, maybe it'll happen, but I can't see it until the money starts flowing again overseas.

 

[oz_mark]

Umm, can't say I've seen an expert provide a direct explaination, but isn't the AUD in freefall because everyone needs cash. The world has been pumping cash money in to Australia over the last few years to take advantage of our high interest rates. They've all been siting of official rates from 0 to 3 or 4%, (which makes a joke of low interest rates under John). So they have been sending their cash here to get better earns. Buying AUD, hence AUD increased in value.

I think commodity prices have more of an effect on our dollar than the interest rate.

Look at these two graphs
INO - REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB INDEX (NYBOT:CR) Price Chart and Quote (which is a commodoties index)
AUDUSD=X: Basic Chart for AUD to USD - Yahoo!7 Finance - Share Prices, Charts, News and more (AUD vs USD)

Note commodities and the AUD have tracked down pretty much together.

 

[dot]

Update on the reason fro my cancelled trip to MNL:

It turns out that my client's board had other reasons for delaying the project, so it was not the current financial crisis to blame.

I, therefore, have not (yet) been effected, but I would not be surprised to see it happen.

 

[medhead]

I think commodity prices have more of an effect on our dollar than the interest rate.

Look at these two graphs
INO - REUTERS/JEFFERIES CRB INDEX (NYBOT:CR) Price Chart and Quote (which is a commodoties index)
AUDUSD=X: Basic Chart for AUD to USD - Yahoo!7 Finance - Share Prices, Charts, News and more (AUD vs USD)

Note commodities and the AUD have tracked down pretty much together.

Commodity prices and the dollar are related for sure, but it is only one of the drivers to the current price fall. Certainly lower commodity prices can explain the Oz dollar's fall against the NZ dollar.

Edit: commodity prices have been higher over an extended period and the dollar has only recently attained great heights.

In any case, a lower dollar only helps our commdities producers who mostly get paid in USD.

In relation to the OP question, which I rudely didn't answer before, the current situation, makes an australia originated xONE potential more attractive to me, so that might make booking and paying slightly easier.

 

[QF WP]

No change for me domestically - in fact, it probably has hastened some clients wanting to see me - in MEL (particularly) so I have trips planned there and to ADL this month.

What international travel

 

[Arthur Hodgson]

Yes. With $AUD below $SIN, I won't be staying in Singapore for long, but camping out in JB.

I can certainly sympathise with that. I never thought I'd ever see the SGD higher than the Pacific Peso again, but here we are. It will probably mean that in future I will sleep (!) in the lounge or concourse at SIN airport, rather than pay my hard earned PP's for the transit hotel as I have in the past. Just a matter of principle.

For some strange reason, when I was in Singapore a few weeks ago I had a premonition (or whatever) and bought a lot more SGD than I needed at the time.

Very glad I did!

Oh, and one other thing. If the PP (AUD) stays low against the GBP/EUR, I will sell some more of my antiques/stamps/coins collections in Europe, and get quite a nice return in AUD (as I did when the PP was last at around 34 GB pence). So there's always a silver lining...

 

[serfty]

There's been a 5% recovery with the SGD, the AUD is back over parity ...

Oz Forex Foreign Exchange | Real Time Forex Charts

 

[medhead]

bloomberg iphone app doesn't have SGD :!: , but shows USD @ 0.70 and EUR @ 0.51, GBP @ 0.40.

 

[Tortuga]

I wonder how permanent this is? Is it pure speculation to guess what rate the AU will settle at in the near future (1-3 years)?

 

[vt01]

It took a little while for our company to react to the financial crisis but their reaction arrived today in the form of an email from the CFO.
All future travel will be economy class no matter where.
Our old policy was business class for anything over 8 hours.

I kind of thought it would come to this but was hoping it wouldn't. Supposedly this is more of a preventitive measure to ensure the company remains strong..

Of course that always leaves the option of paying the extra myself or using FF point for upgrades..

 

[dot]

It took a little while for our company to react to the financial crisis but their reaction arrived today in the form of an email from the CIO.
All future travel will be economy class no matter where.
Our old policy was business class for anything over 8 hours.

I kind of thought it would come to this but was hoping it wouldn't. Supposedly this is more of a preventitive measure to ensure the company remains strong..

Of course that always leaves the option of paying the extra myself or using FF point for upgrades..

ditto, but then we do work for the same company .

Two versions of the email I got (I recieved three in total from different management streams) said this was a temporary measure and applied to everyone worldwide... although I guess the CEO still gets to fly in the corporate jet.

 

[Tortuga]

You guys are lucky to fly business with your company, what industry do you work in?

 

[QF WP]

I think you need to re-phrase that by saying they were lucky...not any more (for the time being), based on their email.

Just got a phone call from a client in MEL and due to the market uncertainty, he wants to implement some changes next Wednesday. Looks like a day trip to MEL...yipee.