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Will Qantas enter Administration?

OATEK

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The brother in law of a close friend is an A380 FO, and is currently doing a labouring job to make ends meet. He said QF said no more flying on A380s for him before March 2021. Didn't ask if he was on jobkeeper as didn't want to pry. But it does seem QF not expecting much use of the big birds until well into next year.
 

Melburnian1

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The brother in law of a close friend is an A380 FO, and is currently doing a labouring job to make ends meet. He said QF said no more flying on A380s for him before March 2021. Didn't ask if he was on jobkeeper as didn't want to pry. But it does seem QF not expecting much use of the big birds until well into next year.
I started another thread this arvo as on a non-aviation website, some unknown individual suggested that QFi was going to scrap six (i.e. half) of its A388s.

Time will tell if the suggestion is correct. He/she claimed that an 'announcement' was about to come, but gave no further details except to also comment that there'd be no international flying until 2021. He/she didn't mention NZ though.

So your contribution ties in with what this other individual claimed.
 

justinbrett

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Qantas used to have a business model of losing a tonne of money on international and losing more on domestic because of the capacity war waged with VA. That changed around 2014/2015 when QF also instigated domestic fare increases of around 11%. International also benefited at this time from the different treatment of depreciation, fleet rationalisation.

Regards,

BD
That’s just incorrect. The annual reports are still on the net. Qantas mainline domestic hasn’t lost money for at least 12 years (I got bored and stopped looking prior to 2008)
 

jb747

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Scrapping vs not flying are two very different animals.

The March 21 date is something I've heard from reliable sources, and I think it's fair to say that the 380 crews are very pessimistic about their future.

I have also heard that the Sydney simulator and training centre that was being built to hold all of the Sydney sims and all cabin and pilot training, has been cancelled. Not postponed. The current centre has to be closed as it's in the way of some new roads.
 

Melburnian1

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..I have also heard that the Sydney simulator and training centre that was being built to hold all of the Sydney sims and all cabin and pilot training, has been cancelled. Not postponed. The current centre has to be closed as it's in the way of some new roads.
A media report (I forget where) indicated that the NSW Government was not paying any compensation to QF for the loss of that building as (IIRC) it was a tenant. However some compo may be paid to Sydney Airports Corporation as it owns the land.
 

milehighclub

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I have also heard that the Sydney simulator and training centre that was being built to hold all of the Sydney sims and all cabin and pilot training, has been cancelled. Not postponed. The current centre has to be closed as it's in the way of some new roads.
This is correct and they will now build it in either Melbourne or Brisbane.
 

jb747

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Which means that every pilot who is based in Sydney would need to be flown down to Melbourne for each and every sim. If it is an early or late sim, then it will also require accommodation.

Now the 747 is going, so that rules them out. But, there are Dash 8, 330 and 380, as well as 737 crews based in Sydney who use those sims. There was to be a 787 base in Sydney too. Just allowing for the aircraft that will survive for sure, you‘ll end up with at least six (and perhaps as many as 12) sessions per day for which you will need to fly crews down. So, a minimum 12 pilots every day. That is in addition to the movement that already happens. There would be a slight saving in the other direction, as you might not need to move Melbourne based 380 crews in the other direction.

That’s not all, of course. The training building also supports all conversion and initial training. There might not be much initial training happening for a while, but there could well be a lot of conversions.

Plus, all security and EP training also has to happen. This is already done in Melbourne and Brisbane, but you would now be adding all of the Sydney based pilots AND cabin crew to mix. I’m not sure of the exact total numbers, but it would have to be around 9,000 training days for the pilots, and at least half that number again for the cabin crew. So, perhaps somewhere around 15,000 crew movements per year for this training. So, around 40 per day. I haven’t even considered the Adelaide and Perth basings which have this sort of movement, nor have I considered issues with regard to the instructors. I’m sure these numbers can be played with in a few ways, but the upshot is that the only reason that multiple training centres already exist is that the costs of moving people made it worthwhile.

Of course none of these issues actually exist if the intention is to remove Sydney as a main crew base. You’d still have some smaller level of basing there, but nowhere near the current size. Domestically it wouldn’t make all that much difference, and is more or less how TAA operated. Internationally though, it is the main crew base by a large margin. But, if the ultimate intention is to downsize dramatically (lets just imagine the already delivered 787s as your only international aircraft), then I guess your main base could be anywhere.

How it would work industrially, I have no idea. I’m sure there are massive financial implications in going from having 20,000 people stood down, to laying off the vast majority. Nevertheless, I don’t see QFi being even a small fraction of it’s previous size.

Mind you, I hope I’m totally wrong, and that AJ has some great plan. The problem is that I think events are moving beyond any CEO’s ability to plan.
 
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BD1959

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That’s just incorrect. The annual reports are still on the net. Qantas mainline domestic hasn’t lost money for at least 12 years (I got bored and stopped looking prior to 2008)
You are - of course - correct. From memory QF Domestic made a loss in 2014, in fact they made a very modest profit of $30m a stunning drop of 92% on the previous year and admitted at the time as being a result of the capacity war with Virgin. Not nearly enough to help Internationals loss of $497m ... which was the point I was clumsily trying to make.

Regards,

BD
 

mviy

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I think QF CEO's plan would be to revive Project Sunrise (though perhaps with fewer routes e.g. just LHR and JFK) once there is sufficient demand recovery and the airline is in a financial position to make that investment. Perhaps even consider a capital raising to help fund the purchase of some of the planes. However I suspect COVID-19 would be past history for quite some time by the time QF is in that position.
 

BD1959

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Is there more than one?
Rolls-Royce Motors and Rolls Royce Holdings (who make aero engines, among other things) are completely different companies and have been for decades.

Even growing up in Derby in the 60s, the aero division was always referred to as "Royces" as opposed to RR for the cars - not that we saw too many RR cars in Derby apart from the mayor's!!

Regards,

BD
 

Melburnian1

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Which means that every pilot who is based in Sydney would need to be flown down to Melbourne for each and every sim. If it is an early or late sim, then it will also require accommodation...nor have I considered issues with regard to the instructors. I’m sure these numbers can be played with in a few ways, but the upshot is that the only reason that multiple training centres already exist is that the costs of moving people made it worthwhile....
How many instructors are there? Between 20 and 200? As you cogently inform us, there's an enormous number of training sessions/days involved.

One issue for these senior individuals may be that the company could require them to 'permanently' move to Melbourne or Brisbane from Sydney (or perhaps the less disruptive becoming a 'FIFO' worker a la iron ore or coal miners).

If it's the second, that means much time away from home. If it's the first, children must be found new schools and SWMBO or equivalent has to be 'happy' as well. Ageing rellies and friends are further away, with Skype/telephone/social media not always a satisfactory substitute.
 

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