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Will Qantas enter Administration?

JohnPhelan

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Still the worst customer service org in Oz - regardless of how much a fanboy one might be...
I collect the points & take their free seats but always fly a different airline - Cathay, FIJi, Japan, Latam et al.
I take it you never have to deal with Telstra???? Telstra makes Qantas look like the Rolls Royce of customer service!
 

GoldCanyon340

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I take it you never have to deal with Telstra???? Telstra makes Qantas look like the Rolls Royce of customer service!
I also would nominate Telstra so you saved me the effort :p

As much as some hate QF to say it is the worst customer service organisation in Australia requires effort to stretch the bounds of credulity even the National Enquirer has not achieved.
 

jakeseven7

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I also would nominate Telstra so you saved me the effort :p

As much as some hate QF to say it is the worst customer service organisation in Australia requires effort to stretch the bounds of credulity even the National Enquirer has not achieved.
Having battled Westpac for the past few weeks I also have to join in the rest of the posters in this thread that disagree with you :).
Clearly you personally have unfortunately had a very traumatic experience though with QF! 😂 I also find QF tailor their customer service - so higher tiers are really looked after well. Westpac on the other hand seem to treat all their customers with equal disdain - in my experience of course!
 

straitman

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[mod hat] Moving forward the thread really should be about the topic which it hasn't been for a while.[/mod hat]
 

straitman

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Personally I believe that QF will only be flying with a lot of help. Their current financial structure and borrowings etc are a big mess.
 

Melburnian1

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Personally I believe that QF will only be flying with a lot of help. Their current financial structure and borrowings etc are a big mess.
In about September 2020, we will know if QF has revalued its aircraft (and perhaps other assets) downwards. The allegations made earlier by another AFFer about QF's accounts are serious, although hard for non-accountants to gauge the truth of. Maybe for once auditors will really earn their money.

Will QF's credit rating be downgraded? That'd push up (even if only slightly) the cost of its borrowings.

The continuing border closures in four states means even if domestic flying partially resumes, it won't be a true Australia-wide network. Victoria now seems to be poorest at handling coronavirus so that's a major worry for airline managements as it hardens the resolve of smaller states' Premiers not to reopen the borders and allow Victorians in, even if many in both states think that's a gross overreaction.

The elephant in the room is whether redundancies will be necessary from around September 2020 once JobKeeper finishes, or is drastically reduced in size. It'll be a balancing act but the difficulty is that future demand for both domestic and even more so international (given geopolitical factors) may be hard to assess as QF (and competitors) can't just rely on historical passenger numbers or trends.
 
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BAM1748

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Still the worst customer service org in Oz - regardless of how much a fanboy one might be...
I collect the points & take their free seats but always fly a different airline - Cathay, FIJi, Japan, Latam et al.
Disagree completely on worst customer service in Oz. You know what they say about opinions.
 

jakeseven7

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The continuing border closures in four states means even if domestic flying partially resumes, it won't be a true Australia-wide network. Victoria now seems to be poorest at handling coronavirus so that's a major worry for airline managements as it hardens the resolve of smaller states' Premiers not to reopen the borders and allow Victorians in, even if many in both states think that's a gross overreaction.
Actually, the CHO called out Victoria as being one of the best at managing corona, they are just testing far far more than the other states, so finding more and therefore having to manage more cases. Ironically for QF and VA, I'm sure they would love to see less testing = FEWER :) cases = more confidence to relax borders and allow travel!

On QF"s financial ability, I suspect a big axe to swing through their staff and flight schedule once we start up again, just like will happen at VA2. Both QF and VA2 will be very different airlines I suspect.

But will they go into voluntary administration - I'm not so sure, they have a far healthier balance sheet than VA1 - but that is not exactly a great benchmark is it!.... QF will also have the Fed Gov as a backstop as well, being the national carrier and subject to special government conditions that restrict its ability to source capital.
 
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Melburnian1

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.. Ironically for QF and VA, I'm sure they would love to see less testing = less cases = more confidence to relax borders and allow travel!..
<Redacted>

<Redacted>

Agree with your comments in second and third paras - good analysis.
 
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Melburnian1

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Moodys just completed a review and decided to leave it unchanged.
milehighclub, I am looking at print edition of 'The Australian' today (Monday 1 June 2020, p15).

It states 'Moody's lowers Qantas outlook to negative', saying its cut 'reflected the impact (sic) on Qantas of the breadth and severity of the shock and broad deterioration in credit quality it had triggered' but said 'Qantas could benefit from Virgin's administration process.'

'The negative outlook reflectsthe continued uncertain prospects for the airline industry, with risks of extended disruption to travel causing further strain on the company's balance sheet and liquidity.'

Moody's then said it expected to change the outlook to 'stable' when it appears the threat of coronavirus has been brought under control and QF is in a position to reduce leverage.'

Moody's stated that it expected weakness in the airline sector to persist until 2023. Note that this is in line with forecasts made overseas such as in the UK.
 

milehighclub

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milehighclub, I am looking at print edition of 'The Australian' today (Monday 1 June 2020, p15).

It states 'Moody's lowers Qantas outlook to negative',
The outlook was changed, but the credit rating remains the same as that works on a scale from 'AAA' down the various levels to a 'C' and QF still sits with an investment grade rating.
 

Melburnian1

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Either way who trusts ratings agencies anyway cough GFC cough 😂
I see your point, as back in 2013 Qantas' status was at so-called 'junk bond' level and then obviously was upgraded at various times.

The outlook is important though because 'the markets' look to the future, not so much the present or the past.
 

RAM

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Pretty astounded that QF/JQ still hasn’t added any capacity in June on MEL/SYD despite many flights already full or close to capacity.
Much more profitable 'rationing' flights and seeing 98% seats sold at up to 4x pre-cv prices (SYDMEL $1,800 in Y).

Just another Q 'enhancement'.
 

p--and--t

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Much more profitable 'rationing' flights and seeing 98% seats sold at up to 4x pre-cv prices (SYDMEL $1,800 in Y).

Just another Q 'enhancement'.
You always seen so sure with a number of extreme statements on various threads.

So expect you to come back next month and actually prove that statement with actual fares.
 

RAM

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Having battled Westpac for the past few weeks I also have to join in the rest of the posters in this thread that disagree with you :).
Clearly you personally have unfortunately had a very traumatic experience though with QF! 😂 I also find QF tailor their customer service - so higher tiers are really looked after well. Westpac on the other hand seem to treat all their customers with equal disdain - in my experience of course!
For you and everybody else, IF you are having serious problems over an issue - then do some searching and find the phone number for that company's company secretary (often also their senior legal person) and call their office. Generally if all else fails trace it via the ASX web site.

Has worked exceptionally well for me since I tried it in the 1990s. Even seen procedures manuals changed for some majors such as CBA, Westpac & Qantas (Jetstar 2x) amongst others. Normally I do it when I'm told something that is totally incorrect (sometimes illegal), I challenge it politely, get same response, ask for teamleader/supervisor etc etc. If no satisfactory resolution then Company Secretary it is.

If you do then you must make sure you have all the details etc accurately. Noting down dates, times, names, ref # & a few choice direct quotes is very much appreciated by the company secretary.

BTW - under Federal Privacy Legislation you are entitled to request a copy of any recorded telephone conversation(s) - sometimes avoids the next step to the company secretary.
 

justinbrett

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Qantas used to have a business model of losing a tonne of money on international but making up for it on domestic and FFs.
 

jakeseven7

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For you and everybody else, IF you are having serious problems over an issue - then do some searching and find the phone number for that company's company secretary (often also their senior legal person) and call their office. Generally if all else fails trace it via the ASX web site.

Has worked exceptionally well for me since I tried it in the 1990s. Even seen procedures manuals changed for some majors such as CBA, Westpac & Qantas (Jetstar 2x) amongst others. Normally I do it when I'm told something that is totally incorrect (sometimes illegal), I challenge it politely, get same response, ask for teamleader/supervisor etc etc. If no satisfactory resolution then Company Secretary it is.

If you do then you must make sure you have all the details etc accurately. Noting down dates, times, names, ref # & a few choice direct quotes is very much appreciated by the company secretary.

BTW - under Federal Privacy Legislation you are entitled to request a copy of any recorded telephone conversation(s) - sometimes avoids the next step to the company secretary.
Thanks for that have saved!
 
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BD1959

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Qantas used to have a business model of losing a tonne of money on international but making up for it on domestic and FFs.
Qantas used to have a business model of losing a tonne of money on international and losing more on domestic because of the capacity war waged with VA. That changed around 2014/2015 when QF also instigated domestic fare increases of around 11%. International also benefited at this time from the different treatment of depreciation, fleet rationalisation.

Regards,

BD
 
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