Which Airlines may be next to Fold?

ozfflyer

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thomas cook gone

jet airways india gone

cobalt gone

numerous otheer EU operators gone

JQ NZ domestic goning

Condor next ?

Norwegian ?
 
Montenegro airlines now halted.

Small Balkan country of about 630K and on the back of a recent election win for a conservative party.

Have flown them once about 10 years ago.

Little bit of trivia - not the first airline to bear its IATA code -YM - to go under. In fact one airline that had that code went under twice.
 
Malaysia fate will soon be known

 
AirAsiaX with massive debt restructuring proposal

Looks like a massive haircut
 
Fold is an emotional word. I like 80/20 rule, when you run at 20% capacity or your business is chapter 11'ed. But in the US Chapter 11 is situation normal.

SWOT Analysis required.
Plus: Interest rates at an all time low.
Plus: Those making no profits have higher share valuations.
Neg: Fancy leaseback finance schemes a disaster for those remaining in business.
Neg: Premium classes make plane routes profitable. Teleconferences, quarantine lockup risks, and perks downgrades means less big payers. Dr's exempt.
Neg: Wage rise stagnation in the cattle classes
Neg: Travel Insurance - I believe is now worthless for those who plan ahead.
Plus: Huge pent up demand/backlog for stranded pax.
Neg: International paperwork and tests = less impulse buying
Plus: I own no airline shares.
Opportunity: Govts will back dead horses, when the rich scream overgeared luxury segments die when the liquidations begin.
Threat: Banks want their loans paid and serviced.
Opportunity: Airlines introduce demand scheduling
Opportunity: Best to let the airline fold, govt and taxpayers absorb the socialised loss, then phoenix when things pick up.
Opportunity: Helicopter money, free money, irresponsible credit
Threat: If .au does not recognize less well known foreign covid shots, QF's share of pax will be in the toilet. Bye bye foreign education sector.
Threat: Foreign debt insurance. So far the fools are going along with MMT.
Opportunity: Travel Bubble. No, I am not convinced. First accidental leak, and they will can it within 24 hours, creating distrust.
Threat: Unlike the EU, Australia does not have airline ticketing laws that prevent pax from being stranded/left in the lurch. Another reason not to fly.
Threat: Overseas airlines, especially ones that have phoenixed.
Threat: Knee-jerk announcements from CMO's , irrational risk plans, secret agendas, groupthink

I think more airlines will go, new ones will spring up on rip-off routes, and overall air travel remain in a slump until the three C's. Certainty, Credit, Consistency come back.
 
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I guess the airlines will spin out, but HNA Group has commenced bankruptcy proceedings


(Hainan Airlines, Hong Kong Airlines, Beijing Capital, and others.)

Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.
 
Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.

If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)
 
If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)

JB sold a lot of people a lemon with VA1 he certainly had a silver tongue that’s for sure!
 
Not an air line but no more Lear jets.
 
Maybe Condor as LOT has pulled out of takeover.
Condor to be taken over by financial investor Attestor Capital:
 
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