Which Airlines may be next to Fold?

ozfflyer

Established Member
Joined
Dec 22, 2018
Messages
1,186
Points
10
thomas cook gone

jet airways india gone

cobalt gone

numerous otheer EU operators gone

JQ NZ domestic goning

Condor next ?

Norwegian ?
 

dajop

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 1, 2002
Messages
11,792
Solutions
3
Points
1,345
Montenegro airlines now halted.

Small Balkan country of about 630K and on the back of a recent election win for a conservative party.

Have flown them once about 10 years ago.

Little bit of trivia - not the first airline to bear its IATA code -YM - to go under. In fact one airline that had that code went under twice.
 
AMX001595_Travel-Insider_1100x260

AIRwin

Established Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2013
Messages
4,163
Solutions
6
Points
700
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Gold
Malaysia fate will soon be known

 

AIRwin

Established Member
Joined
Apr 13, 2013
Messages
4,163
Solutions
6
Points
700
Qantas
Gold
Virgin
Gold
AirAsiaX with massive debt restructuring proposal

Looks like a massive haircut
 

ethernet

Active Member
Joined
Aug 10, 2006
Messages
803
Solutions
1
Points
310
Fold is an emotional word. I like 80/20 rule, when you run at 20% capacity or your business is chapter 11'ed. But in the US Chapter 11 is situation normal.

SWOT Analysis required.
Plus: Interest rates at an all time low.
Plus: Those making no profits have higher share valuations.
Neg: Fancy leaseback finance schemes a disaster for those remaining in business.
Neg: Premium classes make plane routes profitable. Teleconferences, quarantine lockup risks, and perks downgrades means less big payers. Dr's exempt.
Neg: Wage rise stagnation in the cattle classes
Neg: Travel Insurance - I believe is now worthless for those who plan ahead.
Plus: Huge pent up demand/backlog for stranded pax.
Neg: International paperwork and tests = less impulse buying
Plus: I own no airline shares.
Opportunity: Govts will back dead horses, when the rich scream overgeared luxury segments die when the liquidations begin.
Threat: Banks want their loans paid and serviced.
Opportunity: Airlines introduce demand scheduling
Opportunity: Best to let the airline fold, govt and taxpayers absorb the socialised loss, then phoenix when things pick up.
Opportunity: Helicopter money, free money, irresponsible credit
Threat: If .au does not recognize less well known foreign covid shots, QF's share of pax will be in the toilet. Bye bye foreign education sector.
Threat: Foreign debt insurance. So far the fools are going along with MMT.
Opportunity: Travel Bubble. No, I am not convinced. First accidental leak, and they will can it within 24 hours, creating distrust.
Threat: Unlike the EU, Australia does not have airline ticketing laws that prevent pax from being stranded/left in the lurch. Another reason not to fly.
Threat: Overseas airlines, especially ones that have phoenixed.
Threat: Knee-jerk announcements from CMO's , irrational risk plans, secret agendas, groupthink

I think more airlines will go, new ones will spring up on rip-off routes, and overall air travel remain in a slump until the three C's. Certainty, Credit, Consistency come back.
 

oz_mark

Enthusiast
Joined
Jun 30, 2002
Messages
18,848
Solutions
4
Points
1,425
I guess the airlines will spin out, but HNA Group has commenced bankruptcy proceedings


(Hainan Airlines, Hong Kong Airlines, Beijing Capital, and others.)
 
Get paid up to 25% in real cash from your everyday purchases from leading companies such as Virgin Australia, Booking.com, Coles, Apple, Microsoft and much more. Free to join and no catches!

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

jakeseven7

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
5,249
Solutions
2
Points
995
I guess the airlines will spin out, but HNA Group has commenced bankruptcy proceedings


(Hainan Airlines, Hong Kong Airlines, Beijing Capital, and others.)

Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.
 

oz_mark

Enthusiast
Joined
Jun 30, 2002
Messages
18,848
Solutions
4
Points
1,425
Remember when they were the saviour of the old VA1 airline?! Wow how things change.

If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)
 

jakeseven7

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
5,249
Solutions
2
Points
995
If nothing else, I appreciated their investment in my travelling comfort!

(I still don't know how JB convinced them it was a good idea)

JB sold a lot of people a lemon with VA1 he certainly had a silver tongue that’s for sure!
 

drron

Veteran Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2002
Messages
26,313
Solutions
1
Points
3,690
Not an air line but no more Lear jets.
 
Top