What's your prediction on the Australian Dollar?

[Foreigner]

The ASX index is way down today. AUD weaker as well.

One of many comments on SMH...

Don't worry guys, I've just turned the stabilisers on.
Capt.Smith
ASX Titanic


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...a-v-yellen-20151213-glmmq9.html#ixzz3uGg9BzPq

 

[PLANT]

Oil down
Us rates lifting

Buy now cause the AU heading south very quickly..... B4 XMAS!

Like the UFC opponent!

 

[moa999]

Already priced in I suspect

 

[cove]

With all the bad news I started thinking that there must be "a plunge protection team "working our currency as a play thing.

 

[Doctore1003]

The AUD/USD is in the middle of its recent range and I don't think either bulls or the bears can point to any persuasive evidence that the market will move in their direction in the coming weeks.

I've been leaning bullish the past few weeks due to sentiment and market positioning, and the daily chart still looks more bullish than bearish - ie. a series of higher lows and potentially a bullish ascending triangle formation (Ascending Triangle Definition | Investopedia). I've been trading the AUD/USD from the long side and am currently long from yesterday with a cost average of 71.82. Have started taking profits and will continue to do so on any moves higher before the US interest rate decision on Thursday morning.

If the US Fed delivers a "dovish hike" (Markets Bracing for Fed’s ‘Dovish Hike’ - MoneyBeat - WSJ) as is becoming expected then that could set up for a nice rally in stocks, commodities and currencies like the AUD.

Of course a break below 71.50/71 ish would be pretty bearish given the long term trend is down.

 

[Doctore1003]

Seeing a lot of Usd strength right now across all major currencies. Amazing the correlation with stocks going up that's developed in recent weeks. We can expect a lot of volatility for the remainder of the week. I plan to reassess the big picture over the weekend once all the news and initial reactions are out.

 

[Foreigner]

,,,,,,,,,,,,

 

[PLANT]

Lift OFF rates up
Au dollar dive dive dive

 

[marki]

Actually it's up 72.45

 

[PLANT]

Yeah probably take a while to get info here.... You know with our slow Malcolm nbn....

 

[Foreigner]

Most would have expected the rate increase. As for the financial market, it's predictable unpredictability.

 

[Warks]

The big question: do you buy BHP shares now?

(they've been saying this for months as they fell further)

And the tiny rise in interest rates in the US - will that cause the US dollar to rise? The $A used to go up with interest rate rises but the US is a much bigger animal.

 

[PLANT]

Yes buy BHP to help those that already have them.... Au will\is diving

 

[Doctore1003]

I like the look of AUD/USD here. The dips have been shallower and shallower and I think it could rally a couple of cents in the coming weeks to test the 73.80 level again. If commodities and equities stabilise (as I think they will) the AUD/USD could break towards the high 70s. I just bought some this morning.

 

[earlyriser]

I like the look of AUD/USD here. The dips have been shallower and shallower and I think it could rally a couple of cents in the coming weeks to test the 73.80 level again. If commodities and equities stabilise (as I think they will) the AUD/USD could break towards the high 70s. I just bought some this morning.

I hope so. That would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the current AA deal.

 

[Doctore1003]

I hope so. That would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the current AA deal.

The markets are usually very quiet during the Xmas/NY period so we may not see the move until after the big traders return from holidays on 4 Jan.

 

[Awesom Andy]

I hope so. That would be enough for me to pull the trigger on the current AA deal.

Doubt any airline deals would last weeks...

 

[earlyriser]

Doubt any airline deals would last weeks...

Have until Jan 4th but as said above, any potential spike may not occur by then.

 

[marki]

It is still the case that when a currency such as the euro weakens, it reduces the price of goods sold by German manufacturers in the U.S. But it also increases the price of the things that German manufacturers import to make those exported goods.

 

[Doctore1003]

Marki, not sure what the key point is you are highlighting here?

It is still the case that when a currency such as the euro weakens, it reduces the price of goods sold by German manufacturers in the U.S. But it also increases the price of the things that German manufacturers import to make those exported goods.