What is the rule of thumb airlines use for 'no shows?'

[Melburnian1]

In previous years, I read more than once that the approximate rule of thumb airlines use for a calculation of likely 'no shows' (and hence, if demand exists, airlines overbook to at least that extent) was about five per cent.

In other words, on a full 180 seat B738 or A320, that's about nine who have booked a seat being assumed - on average - not to front for the flight concerned on the day in question.

Does this rule of thumb still more or less apply?

Are AFFers aware if it varies hugely by route, or when comparing Australian domestic to international flights?

 

[cambriamarsh]

I thought it was usually 3% or thereabouts. It may well vary now based on route, day and time of day.

 

[Mattg]

I don't know the exact figures, but they are mostly based on historical, internal airline data for the particular flight/route and vary hugely by flight. For example, no-shows on an early morning MEL-SYD flight are probably going to be much higher than a 10am BNE-LRE flight (which only runs once per day). I believe there is also quite a large difference for international vs domestic flights.

 

[harvyk]

I don't know the exact figures, but they are mostly based on historical, internal airline data for the particular flight/route and vary hugely by flight. For example, no-shows on an early morning MEL-SYD flight are probably going to be much higher than a 10am BNE-LRE flight (which only runs once per day). I believe there is also quite a large difference for international vs domestic flights.

I strongly suspect you're correct. I also suspect they factor in numbers of status pax and ease of recovery if they do need to boot someone from a flight into their equations.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

A lot of no-shows are not planned oversales but as a result of a disruption where pax have mis-connected and are forced onto a new flight that becomes overbooked as a result. It can also happen when a flight is delayed and has pax with international connections who will mis-connect with a flight downline if they are not forced on to the new flight which again results in an oversale on the flight they are moved to.

Flights can also become overbooked as a result of an a/c downgrade eg A330 to B738, Embraer Jet to ATR72 etc.

I would think the above scenarios are far more likely to be the cause of oversales than projected no-show factors based on previous data.