If Virgin gets re-capatalised which really is going to end up wiping off debt. I actually think Virgin will be a very strong airline at least domestically.
I think Qantas is going to be in a World of pain, especially as there are some predications some travel markets such as the UK wont come back until late next year.
Virgin's international fleet is very small, Qantas' is much bigger. Qantas will probably offload it's 380's and if they take the loan they've been offered it will be secured against all their B787's. Though I expect they will use the B787's to replace A330's. But this is a
Virgin Australia forum.
Qantas is hoping the VA saga will stretch on for ages - as it takes the focus off Q's parlous state.
Q's over 100 international fleet is unlikely to be in the air for 15-18 months, let alone operating at break-even levels. The A380s have a ZERO value. Nobody wants them, even brand news ones are sitting unloved (Malaysian Airlines), the first couple that reached 10 years were leased by SIA and they happily returned them to the owner who has subsequently sent them to be scrapped for parts.
Due to the poor economics of the A380 vs the B777, even B747-400, B747-800 etc - there is now no bidder at any price for 10yr old A380s let alone 1 year old A380s. Even Emirates, before CV took centre stage, cut the number of A380s they wanted.
One of the A380's major financial impediments is that Airbus knew the future outlook with 100% accuracy and decided to build the base model A380-800 so that the -900 & -1000 used all the same sections EXACTLY, and only added an additional section(s) to achieve the stretch. The wingbox & all structural elements on the A380 are built to handle the load specs of the A380-1000.
AKA massively over-engineered for the A380-800 version, in other words WAY OVERWEIGHT and occupy space that could otherwise have been used for other cargo capacity. A B777 has between 3 & 4 times the other cargo capacity of an A380-800, which helps add to its operational cost/revenue efficiency.
Secondly the value Q has its planes in its balance sheet does not appear to reflect reality, and is easily verified given their well-advertised write-offs in 2013.
Q is haemorraghing cash in required daily/48hr & 72hr maintenance on its grounded planes, the terminals it sold off for $1.4bn and leased back, as well as all its international facilities. Q's travel voucher vs cash refunds situation far outweighs its cash & short term assets as well as its recent short-term credit facilities by my figuring.
So, in a perverse way. AJ & Q want the death of a thousand cuts to continue for VA....
Or I could be wrong of course.