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Virgin Australia Financially Secure? [Now in Voluntary Administration]

HS-TQE

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VA to axe all remaining domestic flights except for a single SYD-MEL return service (excluding Saturdays).

This leaves only the single SYD-MEL service and the international charters operating in the VA network.

Is the writing on the wall here for VA "mk I"?

 

Must...Fly!

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Strategic timing being just after 16:00 and therefore closure of ASX before a long weekend.

This was almost inevitable, it doesn't really change anything or bring up anything we didn't already know.

I presume NW WA flying will remain intact (at least the charter operations). Need more detail on that part of the operation which has largely operated at pre-COVID levels since the other cutbacks began.
 

Must...Fly!

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Not inconsistent with what QF have done, which has practically ceased as well.
You are quite right.

Try book a MEL-PER flight on the rat.

Which begs the question, what about Eastern states based FIFO workers? My earlier concept of charter opportunities from SYD & MEL may prove correct.

What about freight/rail companies then? It's not uncommon for crew to have to position cross-country via air. This will be most interesting....
 

hada88

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My current thinking: better chance of VA surviving with PS in charge, than the last guy...

I - and this is just my gut - is that VA will survive. Would think more likely that current shareholder(s) are diluted with a new investor(s).
 

jakeseven7

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Wouldn't be surprised to see Velocity Points redemptions suspended next.
Yes it was forewarned that this would happen. Any minute now.

If people didn't manage to get their points out to SQ and want to use them suggest do it asap....
 

Must...Fly!

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My current thinking: better chance of VA surviving with PS in charge, than the last guy...

I - and this is just my gut - is that VA will survive. Would think more likely that current shareholder(s) are diluted with a new investor(s).
No doubt better off, PS has been quite good in the worst crisis aviation has ever seen.

Virgin own about 30 737s, 11-14 F100s (not sure on this number as 3 were to be retired end of March anyway) and 4 B777s.

Now it does have a packet of debt, but if the group were to be, er, "restructured"...that's a pretty mean fleet mix to start with IMO. Low cost aircraft, at a relatively low average age for the Boeing fleet and the F100 workhorses will make money flying around NW WA for charter work. If they could somehow keep control of Velocity as well and fold that in to the new operation it's a pretty attractive package when you consider all the domestic lounge assets as well.

Basically...the leased aircraft need to go. Definitely farewell to the grand A330s - whatever the impact financially, they lead the way worldwide in domestic business class offerings.
 

I love to travel

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Strategic timing being just after 16:00 and therefore closure of ASX before a long weekend.

This was almost inevitable, it doesn't really change anything or bring up anything we didn't already know.

I presume NW WA flying will remain intact (at least the charter operations). Need more detail on that part of the operation which has largely operated at pre-COVID levels since the other cutbacks began.
Also strategic in that it sends a government a clear message bail us out or else. Theyhave the long weekend to think about it.
 

davidj

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Anyone up for a status run? Could be our last opportunity, almost nostalgic at this point.
 

juddles

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Each day my opinion changes, as it should when more info comes in.

What is clear to me (today) is that the general lockdown things in Australia and the rest of the world are not things that will be just a few months. This is truly a long term thing. As important that airlines are in the community, at the end of the day they are almost trivial in the whole scheme of things. And when things get really severe, as they are now, these lesser focuses will get exactly that much attention.

IMHO the entire planet is now engaging in a plethora of lockdown measures. It is an absolute basket case of different systems - from those countries that have some control, to others that are just being mauled by the virus. Eventually, as we all come out of this, this reality will transform to a complicated international travel dynamic. Noone will want to go to Bali if they have to spend a two week lockdown upon return. Etc etc. I think that general ausie international tourism will be in shambles for one to two years. There is simply no going back to the status quo until we all get so old that we forget this thing - which will be a very long time.

I am starting to join those that think that Virgin will not actually successfully re-emerge from this catastrophe in travel. I have been plagued by the previous world reality where most of us believed in a need for competition to QF. I am now moving towards the reality that even QF may not survive. So to me, all old bets are now out the window.

Virgin's survival will be a miracle. As the playing field will be different. Just how different noone can say right now. Virgin, as all airlines, controls (or at least guides) the value of their FF points. If I held such velocity points I would be trying right now to wrap my head around the fact that they are suddenly lost...
 

pauly7

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I am starting to join those that think that Virgin will not actually successfully re-emerge from this catastrophe in travel. I have been plagued by the previous world reality where most of us believed in a need for competition to QF. I am now moving towards the reality that even QF may not survive. So to me, all old bets are now out the window.

Virgin's survival will be a miracle.
Oh Juddles your posts always make for an interesting read :)

QF will absolutely come through this.
The government will ensure that - if it comes to that. In what form they come through is not clear of course. QFi may be grounded and with a very limited network for a while. If QF group was the sole survivor then I think we’d see a forced divesture of Jetstar if nothing new rose from the ashes of VA.

But my personal opinion is that VA will come through too... I’m a little constrained about what I can post in this forum now but what I can say is the AU government will be placing a very firm foot on the neck of their foreign government controlled owners to see what they can make them cough up. Again what form VA will come through this mess in is uncertain.

VA’s biggest weakness right now is that they are not ‘too big to fail’. There are bigger companies that are in equal dire straits.

The government won’t be able to save everyone and they also can’t be seen to be be inequitable in their approach.

They will also be holding back to the absolute last minute to do anything drastic as well, they will expect companies to do as much heavy lifting as possible and yes that might mean the VA and QF FF stores limiting redemptions even further.
 

juddles

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Oh Juddles your posts always make for an interesting read :)

QF will absolutely come through this.
The government will ensure that - if it comes to that. In what form they come through is not clear of course. QFi may be grounded and with a very limited network for a while. If QF group was the sole survivor then I think we’d see a forced divesture of Jetstar if nothing new rose from the ashes of VA.

But my personal opinion is that VA will come through too... I’m a little constrained about what I can post in this forum now but what I can say is the AU government will be placing a very firm foot on the neck of their foreign government controlled owners to see what they can make them cough up. Again what form VA will come through this mess in is uncertain.

VA’s biggest weakness right now is that they are not ‘too big to fail’. There are bigger companies that are in equal dire straits.

The government won’t be able to save everyone and they also can’t be seen to be be inequitable in their approach.

They will also be holding back to the absolute last minute to do anything drastic as well, they will expect companies to do as much heavy lifting as possible and yes that might mean the VA and QF FF stores limiting redemptions even further.
Pauly7, I am delighted that you feel my posts are fun :) I am unashamed of putting myself out there with predictions... someone has to do it :)

But I want to alert you to something - your views are very sane - in the concept overall of the past reality But I think, more each day, that the new reality will be so very different. The lockdowns will not be for a few months - due to the inequalities in countries responses and thus debilities - the international travel scene will be mayhem for years.

Your beliefs sound to me to be, as I say, very understandable in terms of the old reality. That era has died. be real. All of the myriad of countries that lived on tourism will not survive this without huge changes - everywhere from Vanuatu to Bali are not rich enough to survive a year+ without tourism.

We in Australia are at the start, as is everywhere. Economic packages to "stimulate" the economy. Makes great sense of this thing was just a few months in longevity. But it will be so much more drawn out. And in that extended timeframe, in a few moths or so, there will be so many other business areas hurting that sheer airlines will lose the focus...
 

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