Two QF A380s to be scrapped

[dajop]

My take though, is that the 380s will not be back at all, in any number other than zero. The bad news will trickle out, so as not to spook the share price too much, until we eventually hear that the decision has been made to get some A350s to replace them. Or Cessna 172s.

Might be quite costly to write them down to zero though, paint 'em up in with the word Jetstar behind the word Qantas, let Jetstar look after the bottom passenger deck and QF has the flight deck and top passenger deck and fly them back and forth to HNL ... Commencing 2025 when the borders open up.

 

[Daver6]

The A380 can't fly as far as the 787 can with an acceptable load so it's not very suited to doing repatriation flights, especially from places like the U.K.

I was more thinking India. Also, given they're running them half empty (might be exaggerating a little on load) perhaps it could?

 

[dajop]

The A380 can't fly as far as the 787 can with an acceptable load so it's not very suited to doing repatriation flights, especially from places like the U.K.

No way they're going to do a repatriation flight, agreed.

But for the theoretical exercise, for repatriation flights where they are deliberately not filling the aircraft, what's an acceptable load ? I'm pretty sure if they can make it westbound from DFW to SYD (8578 mi) with albeit weight restricted commercial operations, they can make the (shorter duration) eastbound from LHR to DRW (8620mi) with restricted load.

 

[trevella]

BS

as usual

 

[RAM]

Accounting is just fiddling.
Qantas Loyalty is in the equity books at about 0.

If QF wanted they could do what Virgin did and sell a %ge - and boom - equity created.

And you don't write down aircraft every year - that's one offs - you depreciate them - and yes depreciation has been occurring during Covid...


Anyhow, as for the six.
VH-OQC (one of the early, non-refurb aircraft) has just positioned to LAX, and is then reportedly onwards to DRS for heavy maintenance.

VH-OQC Flight Tracking and History - FlightAware

Track VH-OQC flight from Los Angeles Intl to Abu Dhabi Int'l

flightaware.com

Would you be spending all the $s on this flight and maintenance if its future was as a tin can... Given it was already at VCV.

Writing down - well as the three major recognised aircraft valuers have gone on record stating that the value of existing airframes fell by over 10% in 2019/20 and Q uses a valuation method called 'value in use' then having around 100 aircraft sitting idle 95% of the time (or more) would imply a write down is required to meet GAAP requirements. But then again this is Q.

On your second point - Q spending money on 1 A380 could be contingency or a 'seen to be done' exercise. If in 19 months time AJ announces that:
"Despite our hopes it now appears that the A380s will no longer be part of our future." Then who could prove this was a ruse?

As of Feb 2021 Q valued the 12 A380s at $490m (according to their CFO's comments). Writing off even 6 of the 12 (those not refurbed) would wipe out nearly 40% of Q's remaining equity. Worth spending some money ferrying one A380 for some work.

That AJ has said several times that the 6 refurbed planes have cost around $200m to refurb (including new seats covered in plastic) makes me wonder if that amount has been enhanced somewhere else in Q's opaque accounts. Q has been silent about the ongoing costs of the long term grounding of the A380s, and as has been discussed in this thread & elsewhere it will be no small matter to ready the A380s to fly again the longer they stay idle. One person even suggested that for a number of the US located A380s that their engines are not being turned over regularly (not even at all). Does not sound promising.

Meanwhile Q has 3 brand new B787s, sitting not far from the Q A380s, that they are yet to 'officially' take delivery from Boeing - does make me wonder who will ultimately pay their somewhat larger continuing maintenance costs (vs long term storage). Given the US has very strict requirements to maintain airworthiness certificates - it does not come cheap.

The Hawaiian Airlines piece gives a good rundown of FAA requirements even if grounded for extended periods:
"An FAA requirement that requires us to check each aircraft every 48 hours regardless of flight hours logged."

Keeping our Parked Planes in Flying Shape

As the only major Hawai‘i-based airline, with over 90 years of service to our community, images of our fleet on the ground and not in the sky serve as a powerful daily reminder of the severity of this crisis.

www.hawaiianairlines.com

 

[jb747]

The A380 can't fly as far as the 787 can with an acceptable load so it's not very suited to doing repatriation flights, especially from places like the U.K.

Really. Don’t believe all of the 787 hype. If you aren’t carrying anything under the floor, I’d expect the 380 would have no trouble doing London to Darwin, with a full passenger load. The issue isn’t capability, it’s simply the relative costings.

 

[Daver6]

No way they're going to do a repatriation flight, agreed.

But for the theoretical exercise, for repatriation flights where they are deliberately not filling the aircraft, what's an acceptable load ? I'm pretty sure if they can make it westbound from DFW to SYD (8578 mi) with albeit weight restricted commercial operations, they can make the (shorter duration) eastbound from LHR to DRW (8620mi) with restricted load.

I'm sure I read that the expect 787 load was 150 pax coming back from India to allow for social distancing.

 

[dajop]

I'm sure I read that the expect 787 load was 150 pax coming back from India to allow for social distancing.

Yes, that fits with 1-1-1 in business (vs 1-2-1), 1-2-1 in premium economy (vs 2-3-2) and 2-2-2 in economy (vs 3-3-3). Similar distancing in A380 would carry about 280-290 pax.

 

[milehighclub]

I'm sure I read that the expect 787 load was 150 pax coming back from India to allow for social distancing.

There are lot of seat blocked on these flights due to the extra pilots, support staff and crew requirements. The last 3 rows of Y are blocked as are the row in front of and behind the crew jump seat at doors 3.

 

[Flying Fox]

What do you mean by “only doing training”? Undergoing it, or providing it? Training in the aircraft or the sim?

My initial thought was undergoing training in anticipation for return to A380 work flights in a sim.

Are QF doing any training in A380 aircraft?

 

[dajop]

There are lot of seat blocked on these flights due to the extra pilots, support staff and crew requirements. The last 3 rows of Y are blocked as are the row in front of and behind the crew jump seat at doors 3.

Looking at the seat maps, it is not due to social distancing. Economy on today's flight is almost full - except the exit row (blocked Row 46), Row 44 (blocked), Row 58( 5 seats blocked, 4 seats available) and last row 59 (all seats blocked).

Premium economy completely empty, business first 8 rows blocked (presumably for service requirements), last 3 rows not blocked and completely empty. Are they selling PE and J on these flights, or is that they're just too expensive and people aren't buying them?

 

[ayebee]

Not exactly on topic, but maybe related ...

I read that on May 20 VH-OQC flew from Victorville to LAX maintenance base.
Would that be part of routine storage maintenance? There was also speculation it would fly to Germany, which I would assume relates to cabin fitout, if it was to happen.
Does this (optimistically) suggest a longer term plan for this one to come back into service at some point?

 

[dylarr]

Not exactly on topic, but maybe related ...

I read that on May 20 VH-OQC flew from Victorville to LAX maintenance base.
Would that be part of routine storage maintenance? There was also speculation it would fly to Germany, which I would assume relates to cabin fitout, if it was to happen.
Does this (optimistically) suggest a longer term plan for this one to come back into service at some point?

It was just to perform a landing gear drop as a part of routine maintenance.

 

[ayebee]

It was just to perform a landing gear drop as a part of routine maintenance.

Thanks.
I guess they did that on approach to LAX

One wonders if all those aircraft in storage need this occasionally, and how that would be managed.

 

[OATEK]

The husband of a friend of one of my daughters was a QF A380 1st officer. Just heard he has been accepted in to training for the 787 as a 1st and he is very excited at the chance to get back flying as he had been out of the air for 12mths with little prospect pf getting back in a QF A380.

 

[RAM]

Thanks.
I guess they did that on approach to LAX

One wonders if all those aircraft in storage need this occasionally, and how that would be managed.

If you do a search you should come across a Q video of the A380 arriving & going into LA hanger where it was jacked up and the under-carriage testing procedures carried out.

FAA rules are strict on what is required to maintain airworthiness certificate. I posted (last year) on Hawaiian Airline's piece on what they are required to do.

 

[NickCorr]

Looks like she is on her way to Abu Dhabi...

Follow Flight QF6013 from Sydney, NSW to Brisbane, QLD on AirNav RadarBox

Real-time flight tracking with one of the best and most accurate ADS-B coverage worldwide. Check airport arrivals and departures status and aircraft history.

www.radarbox.com

LAX must have been for some prep work...

 

[NickCorr]

And another one on her way to Dresden...

QF6013 (QFA6013) Qantas Flight Tracking and History 19-Aug-2021 (KLAX-DRS / EDDC) - FlightAware

Track Qantas (QF) #6013 flight from Los Angeles Intl to Dresden Klotzsche

flightaware.com

 

[jb747]

Thanks.
I guess they did that on approach to LAX

One wonders if all those aircraft in storage need this occasionally, and how that would be managed.

No they didn't. They would have done a normal gear extension. This test would require alternate gear extension as well.

 

[mts4353]

And another one on her way to Dresden...

QF6013 (QFA6013) Qantas Flight Tracking and History 19-Aug-2021 (KLAX-DRS / EDDC) - FlightAware

Track Qantas (QF) #6013 flight from Los Angeles Intl to Dresden Klotzsche

flightaware.com

Any idea what it is there for? I had an alert set up on Flight Radar when they were refurbishing them in Dresden but not sure about the purpose of this flight?