Toll struggles to sell its stake in Virgin Blue

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dajop said:
I think you will find in nearly all instances, DJ's price levels are below those of QF, for comparable fares. Some examples look at following (DJ/QF fares - excluding promo fares & red e-deals)
Why exclude red e-deals? Almost always at the last minute QF airfares are cheaper than DJ.

I feel like going to Adelaide Saturday afternoon after golf and returning Monday afternoon/evening. Lets compare some airfares.

QF have 3 Saturday afternoon/evening flights, also a morning and lunchtime flight, priced at $166. QF have 9 Monday flights throughout the day at $166 and another flight at $186.

DJ have an early Saturday morning flight, no good for me, priced at $139, 2 mid-morning flights priced at $209 and the 2 afternoon evening flights priced at $190. DJ have a Monday 6:00am flight, no thanks, priced at $99, 2 mid-morning flights priced at $190 and $209 and 2 afternoon evening flights priced at $169 and $155.

So basically with QF it will cost $332 return ($166 + $166) and with DJ it will cost $345 ($190 + $155). Why would I go with DJ?

There are many other examples where I have felt like going somewhere at the last minute and DJ does not compare favourably to QF....
 
JohnK said:
There are many other examples where I have felt like going somewhere at the last minute and DJ does not compare favourably to QF....
I guess it depends on the route.

I'm mostly flying the golden triangle and during peak times. During 2007 I checked both airlines fares consistently before booking. DJ always had lower fares than QF at shorter notice. I was generally booking one or two days before although sometimes as little as 15 hours before. On SYD-MEL I could often still get Blue Saver fares yet over at QF, it was only full Y or occasionally Flexi-Saver, both of which were a lot higher.

If you are willing to be flexible with flight times (e.g. middle of the day) then yes, both airlines tend to have cheap fares at short notice.
 
JohnK said:
Why exclude red e-deals?

Because I was being lazy, and the pricing was all over the shop any on any given day, whereas with other fares it was more consistent! But if you look at lead in fares (or "promo fares" and "red edeals" - not including mid week minis) on the same routes I looked at they are currently $109/$127,$99/$120, $149/$160, $125/$166, $229/$283


JohnK said:
Almost always at the last minute QF airfares are cheaper than DJ.

Depends if you are travelling corporately and want flexibility or not (the DJ flexi fares are always cheaper than QF ones) I agree that often QF airfares are cheaper at the last minute, and historically I've found QF fares, unless flights are heavily loaded tend to move down closer too date of travel but DJ's only move up. Different business models, and each consumer will have their price point where one is going to be preferred to the other (for many this will be purely price, but others, including myself do factor other things into the equation).

JohnK said:
I feel like going to Adelaide Saturday afternoon after golf and returning Monday afternoon/evening. Lets compare some airfares.


Last minute comparisons can be all over the place, take an example, Sydney to Brisbane this coming Friday on a day return (dep 7am). DJ is $21 cheaper outbound. If I return from BNE at 4pm, DJ is $86 cheaper, but if it is 5pm, QF is $19 cheaper. Take same times/dates, but Melbourne to Sydney as route. Leaving at 7am DJ is $38 cheaper (leave at 8 am DJ is only $8 cheaper). Return at 4pm DJ is a whopping $354 cheaper (QF only selling J), it's not until 7pm that fares become close again. I'm sure if I chose other routes at other times it would be different again. Horses for courses, and really up to the market to decide.

In reality if you look at both carriers, we can bleat about either of them, but they both must be doing something right, as they are both maintaining good profitability.

One thing I will say, is that once I requalified for WP this year (and at the same time obtained LTG) I was free from an inherent bias that saw me travelling QF (it's amazing how easy with a little flexibility in timing one can bias a BFOD policy to one airline). Now I have achieved those, I have been free to travel on DJ (and deliberatly to enhance my velocity balance) and have been surprised that DJ are really quite a good airline. I am sure come new qualification year, I will back in the QF stable, but if there are $100+ price variations it will be hard to justify not taking DJ.
 
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pauly7 said:
I'm sorry, choke, to interrupt the DJ cheerleadering routine :cool: but I'm not letting you get away with 'outstanding' as a description of DJ onboard catering. It is average at best, in terms of quality and range - and about the same quality as JQ I'd say.
There is so much QF cheerleading on this forum, and so much derision of Virgin Blue, that I cannot help but defend them when I see the tripe that gets posted from time-to-time. I'm sure you could allow one or two enthusiastic DJ customers permission to speak in a positive manner about them to rebut the constant critics?

pauly7 said:
I'm with John, QF catering is fine for me as well, your 'nuts and a drink is all you ever get on QF' line is getting a bit old as well YY, I haven't had that from QF for over 18mths actually. Actually I lie, I had it in J as part of a 4 course meal .
I had nuts in August last year, not all that long ago. And if it's not nuts then it's 2 crackers and a piece of cheese in a weird napkin thing that also has to double as the rubbish bag. :rolleyes: Either way, this is NOT full service. Anyone who thinks otherwise is living in fantasy land.

Have you tried DJ's hot meals or their wraps? They far outstrip any of the food QF has ever given me in Y and I'm also including meals as far back as their international offerings of 20 years ago. Even the Neil Perry J meals are a bit dodgy at times. However I do like the First class meals! :D

pauly7 said:
Please don't get so lovestruck by with your campaigning for DJ that it makes everything you say sound like a DJ press release. It is actually a little weird, because it seems really over the top borderline fake sometimes.
Sorry p7, but as an almost lone voice here at AFF I will continue to defend DJ from the derision that gets posted about them, especially by those who don't even fly with them. I realise the died-in-the-wool QF loyalists don't like it but they will have to cope. Look at it this way, without DJ you'd all be paying heaps higher fares and your FF program would suck even more because they'd continue to "enhance" it.

pauly7 said:
Back on topic, I was on a DJ flight today and the trolly dolly's were gossiping to each other about the sale as they sold food. One swore to resign if Air NZ bought in.
I really don't blame them. Better to get out early and find another job before their job disappears! Imagine how those who used to work at AN would feel watching this happen. :evil:
 
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One aspect rarely mentioned is not having to sit in Leather seats is worth approx. $10 Per Hour to me. (from Boarding to Disembarkation, not flight time) ... :p
 
Lets get some perspective, DJ started off as a typical LCC (BOB, No FF program/Status, no Lounge).

In the months before Sep11, there were the burgeoning LCCs - DJ and VQ and the legacy carriers QF & AN.

Qantas absorbed VQ and AN went bust!

This left DJ and QF.

DJ were able to increase their prices to a level a bit more than the cost of a beer and a sandwich below QF.

To counter this, QF resurrected VQ as JQ and priced it at a 'true' LCC level.

DJ decided on a strategy to become a Hybrid LCC/"New Age" carrier, introducing "The Lounge", Velocity and now, "CorporatePlus".

This is a little simplistic but gives the basic scenario that I perceive.
 
dajop said:
...

Blue Saver/Super Saver Flexible/Flexi Saver Corp Plus/Fully Flex

MEL-SYD $139/$172, $269/$290, $339/$412
SYD-BNE $139/$180, $249/$310, $330/$430
MEL-BNE $169/$215, $369/$415, $464/$615
SYD-ADL $155/$211, $289/$366, $395/$526
MEL-PER $279/$370, $569/$687, $699/$837 ...
I'm not sure Corp Plus with Fully Flex is a good comparison, I believe Business Class should be used.

Here's Qantas' (inclusive) D/J fares for some routes:
Code:
MEL/HBA [COLOR="Olive"]$428[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$577[/COLOR]
MEL/SYD [COLOR=Olive]$453[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$692[/COLOR]
SYD/BNE [COLOR=Olive]$498[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$688[/COLOR]
MEL/BNE [COLOR=Silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$1008
 [/COLOR]SYD/ADL [COLOR=Silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$838[/COLOR]
MEL/PER [COLOR=Silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=Orange]$1576[/COLOR]
 
serfty said:
I'm not sure Corp Plus with Fully Flex is a good comparison, I believe Business Class should be used.

Here's Qantas' (inclusive) D/J fares for some routes:
Code:
MEL/HBA [COLOR=olive]$428[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$577[/COLOR]
MEL/SYD [COLOR=olive]$453[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$692[/COLOR]
SYD/BNE [COLOR=olive]$498[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$688[/COLOR]
MEL/BNE [COLOR=silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$1008
 [/COLOR]SYD/ADL [COLOR=silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$838[/COLOR]
MEL/PER [COLOR=silver]$n/a[/COLOR]/[COLOR=orange]$1576[/COLOR]
I haven't looked in the past few months, but have you noticed if there has been more D fare availability beginning to appear? I'm expecting this to be the case as DJ's Y+ seating hits the market.
 
Yada Yada said:
I haven't looked in the past few months, but have you noticed if there has been more D fare availability beginning to appear? I'm expecting this to be the case as DJ's Y+ seating hits the market.
Just checked myself as I am booking a SYD-MEL for tomorrow... there is a stack of D availability! I guess it is always quieter in Jan but you can almost pick any flight at present for tomorrow morning and fly J for $453. Not bad compared with Y at $412.

EDIT: At the times I wish to fly tomorrow, DJ=$258.00 return and QF=$702 return. If I could fly at an alternative time then the difference would be closer, but I can't.
 
Yada Yada said:
EDIT: At the times I wish to fly tomorrow, DJ=$258.00 return and QF=$702 return. If I could fly at an alternative time then the difference would be closer, but I can't.
Seems like a no-brainer decision to me. Another step closer to maintaining your Velocity Gold status.
 
Yada Yada said:
Sorry p7, but as an almost lone voice here at AFF I will continue to defend DJ from the derision that gets posted about them, especially by those who don't even fly with them. I realise the died-in-the-wool QF loyalists don't like it but they will have to cope. . :evil:

I personally don't mind you doing this at all! :p

I guess my point was that sometimes it comes across a little over the top and paints a picture of an airline that in reality as a frequent passenger of DJ I can safely say doesn't exist. I think that continued blind praise for everthing DJ does from the toilet paper they stock to the hair clips the FA's wear may actually be counterproductive to what you set out to achieve and just suggest some balance ;)

Anyway point made!
 
This report may have something to do with the price and value of Virgin being disputed... Goes on to talk about how all airlines, QF, JQ and Tiger all adding capacity... Fun year for us travellers ahead :p

Virgin earnings forecast slashed

By Steve Creedy
January 10, 2008 01:00am

UBS has slashed its profit forecasts for Virgin Blue by up to 22 per cent
because it believes earnings will be dragged down this year by increased domestic capacity and start-up costs for its long-haul and New Zealand operations.

UBS analyst Simon Mitchell has downgraded the rating for Virgin = from buy to neutral and reduced his valuation of the airline's shares from $2.80 to $2.20.

The forecast reduction to 22 per cent would see Virgin's net income at $210 million in 2008-09, compared with an estimated $218 million at the end of this financial year.

"There are a number of factors working against Virgin earnings that have not been been fully reflected in consensus numbers," Mr Mitchell said in a note.

Virgin earnings forecast slashed | NEWS.com.au Business
 
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pauly7 said:
This report may have something to do with the price and value of Virgin being disputed... Goes on to talk about how all airlines, QF, JQ and Tiger all adding capacity... Fun year for us travellers ahead :p

And now it is hitting Qantas:

theaustralian.news.com.au said:
Qantas down on Merrill 'sell' call
Steve Creedy, Aviation writer | January 16, 2008

INVESTORS yesterday wiped almost 4.5 per cent - or $450million - off the value of Qantas as a Merrill Lynch "sell" recommendation sent the share price plummeting below $5 for the first time since the launch of last year's private equity bid.

The stock plunged 23c to close at $4.90 - with more than 14million shares changing hands - after the analysts slashed their fiscal 2009 earnings estimate by 20 per cent to reflect "cost and competition concerns".
 
Looks like Toll have officially given up trying to sell DJ...
(good thing / bad thing??). Personally I still believe DJ would benefit from a backer who actually really wants the business.

The current performance of the business though (not to mention the credit crunch and general operating environment) wouldn't have made the sell job easy. Maybe this is why they pulled the Canberra routes back so quickly? if they are under this kind of pressure they probably want to capitalise on their key leisure routes first and expand into more risky markets later?

Hope Virgins Amercian flights still get a decent launch budget!

Virgin hit by fuel costs, plans higher levy

Virgin Blue warned on Friday night that profits would more than halve this year due to record fuel prices and was set to increase ticket prices or introduce another fuel surcharge to recoup some of the losses.
The Toll Holdings-controlled Virgin Blue board has also conceded defeat in its attempt to find a buyer for the majority stake the transport company inherited from its takeover of Patrick Corp two years ago.

Virgin hit by fuel costs, plans higher levy | smh.com.au
 
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