The COVID-19 vaccine rollout in Australia has begun

[serfty]

Anyway, here is a graphical representation: (looks like there was a bit of an Easter break)

 

[jakeseven7]

There have been a lot of woeful responses on here this morning about the AZ announcements last night, with a mix of what I consider are distortions and conspiracy theories.

As I understand it, the suspension of AZ for under 50s is recommended by an independent body that is chaired by Prof Cheng from Vic. Anyone saying publicly that this recommendation has been made by that body to benefit the government should be ready to defend their position.

The comparisons with other medications that can cause clots (eg contraceptive pill) are all very good, and your local GP or specialist will have advised on this based in many cases on decades of reports for those meds. The AZ vaccine is new, and various medical bodies around the world are being cautious, perhaps overly so., but if we cannot accept the recommendations of the experts where do we go?

I am 70 and will push to have my AZ shot sooner rather than later, but in doing so I know it will make little difference to when I can travel overseas, which is my goal for the purpose of family reunion.

Because AU has eradicated COVID, the risk benefit equation is different to those in other countries like the UK for example.

The clinical safety of AZ has not changed. Political positioning has.

Never mind more woman in Australia are far more likely to develop clots from the pill and many other medications, it doesn’t matter because there is no covid here. Victim of our own success.

So onto new strategy options:

1) Borders locked for much much longer while the gov tries to secure a secondary vaccine.... fingers crossed

2) Covid is reintroduced after the most vulnerable are vaccinated and sudden the risk benefit equation changes and AZ becomes viable again

Either way big delays coming unless the Feds have secretly got another vaccine deal hidden under the doona.

Everyone get used to living in the Au/Nz bubble for a much longer time!

 

[Princess Fiona]

Let’s just be clear.

The clinical evidence has not changed on AZ.

The only thing that has changed is the political positioning on AZ.

This is a very convenient get out of jail free card say a lot of clinicians in our circles.... wow look, surprise - it seems to have taken a lot of pressure off a government several million doses behind target and getting flayed in the media...

Hmmmm.

Meanwhile unless the Feds have secured a miraculous supply of the other vaccines from somewhere else.... the US?? (...but remember Canada is on its knees begging the US for vaccines too) - we can all forget any reprieve in international borders for even longer.

Plus our beloved premiers get an extended power grab as well slamming borders shut for longer to look tough. Awesome. Great night.

Let’s just pray that some clever federal bureaucrat has secured a supply of the other vaccines somewhere....

That’s not correct. The medical advice has changed.
Prof Cheng explains it well here
Allen Cheng AZ Vaccine

 

[jakeseven7]

That’s not correct. The medical advice has changed.
Prof Cheng explains it well here
Allen Cheng AZ Vaccine

No, I didn’t say the medical advice had not changed. It has locally, obviously.

The clinicals of AZ have not (sure it’s now on their label but it hasn’t changed the underlying situation). It’s the circumstances of application in the population and therefore the indication of use.

Anyway it doesn’t really matter, the outcome is the same. Fortress Australia (and NZ!) will be around for much much longer.

And lucky government conveniently gets to hit RESET to zero on all vaccination targets which they were missing dreadfully. What a nice ‘side effect’ (pun intended!)

 

[Princess Fiona]

No, I didn’t say the medical advice had not changed. It has locally, obviously.

The clinicals of AZ have not (sure it’s now on their label but it hasn’t changed the underlying situation). It’s the circumstances of application in the population and therefore the indication of use.

Anyway it doesn’t really matter, the outcome is the same. Fortress Australia (and NZ!) will be around for much much longer.

Semantics perhaps but you stated that the only thing that has changed is the political positioning.
That’s not true.
The medical advice for Australia currently as the risk/ benefit stands has changed.
Definitely not good news for the borders opening up but Prof Cheng and the rest of ATAGI don’t look at that or have any political positioning in making recommendations around the vaccines.

 

[Lynda2475]

@jakeseven7 i get the frustration as the reality we will be waiting longer to be vaccinated and therefore to travel overseas, but i disagree with your assessment that this is largely political. This delay and over reliance on AZ is doing nothing to help ScoMo and his crew politically.

Because NZ have opted for 100% Pfizer and have a small population (less than NSW) distributed over small area they will be able to open to more of the world well before us as Pfizer also takes 1/3 of the time to administer (3 weeks between shots vs 12 weeks). Once their doses arrive they can power through roll out.

I think all the state border closures (except Vic second wave) have been a gross over reaction, but this is different. I'm glad i now have a choice, and aren't being forced to get AZ as an only option. Because of our HQ program our risk profile is different, we don't need to risk blood clots given risk of getting covid is near non existent.

Not fair to compare to pill, as there are alternative forms of contraception which don't have a dvt risk, and many brands/formulas to choose between plus decades of real world data to help you make an informed decision.

 

[jakeseven7]

Semantics perhaps but you stated that the only thing that has changed is the political positioning.
That’s not true.
The medical advice for Australia currently as the risk/ benefit stands has changed.
Definitely not good news for the borders opening up but Prof Cheng and the rest of ATAGI don’t look at that or have any political positioning in making recommendations around the vaccines.

Sure if that’s how you read it so agree semantics

There is also a very interesting moral / ethical discussion here.

So the Australia gov is probably behind the scenes wading back into the negotiation pool to desperately try and save their political future (cough sorry, the populations health) and secure another proverbial tonne of other vaccines.

But should we really be? There is no covid here.

Perhaps nations overrun by covid where people are dropping dead everyday should be prioritised over a rich covid free country that is annoyed because we can’t go on holidays....

It’s an interesting predicament....

 

[Toula92122]

What an effing mess. My take from this as someone in their 50s who is healthy, even the clotting is not good we aren't that bothered if you die, we need to save the good stuff for younger people or really sick and older people. I do blame the government for not negotiating for more drugs, they said they did not do so because companies would not budge on price yet at the same time they were splashing funds on job keeper/seeker and business support.

I've decided I will likely return to the US to get my vaccine which I can obtain now. It will be Pfizer, Moderna or JnJ. Unfortunately they have put doubts into my head about AZ and I am sure that's happening a lot of places.

 

[Pushka]

I've had a DVT, a known clotting issue in blood, multiple auto immune illnesses and was fine with getting the AZ. Not that I had a choice. While people in their fifties may feel a little like sacrificial lambs now, I wonder if this will improve the uptake by younger people which I feel was always a risk issue as there doesnt really seem to be any benefits for them in being vaccinated. And IF we can get supplies then second dose will be faster than with AZ. So that's a big plus.

20 million Pfizer should see us through? If we can trust the Govt these seem guaranteed.

 

[drron]

Well @RAM you have distinguished yourself again as the master of conspiracy theories..The true figure for German cases of clotting after the AZ vaccine is not 10000 the number of usual cases of this type of clotting but 1 in 90000.This is some 10 times greater than the number that has occurred in the UK.
The other thing you are obviously unaware of is that sometimes clusters do happen by chance._ though unlikely in this instance.I have reported 2 instances of suspicious clusters in my time.Heart attacks in Rayon workers and one of a cluster of thyroid cancer.Both turned out not to be proven.As did a famous case in Brisbane of cancer in ABC staffers.

The German numbers though certainly do seem unusual compared to other countries so the true incidence is still therefore unknown.In medicine though caution is the key.So the reccomendations given I do agree with.
However what worries me is that the Europeans think the reason for this effect is antibodies produced in reaction to the vaccine cross react with platelets.As this disease is more common with Covid than after the vaccine so far it is possible that this may eventually be seen with other vaccines.After all they all aim to produce antibodies to Covid.

I did like your little praise of NZ by saying they got in early getting extra doses of Pfizer on March 7 then of course listed Greg Hunt ordering extra doses on Feb 7th.

And by your figures Pfizer have delivered just on 1 million doses of vaccine by the end of March.Just half of what was agreed to in the initial contract.

But I really have to laugh at your implication that AZ is less trueful than Pfizer.I wonder why you didn't post Pfizer's record on fines from the same source as you used for AZ.Maybe because they have been fined more including the largest fine ever in 2009.

pfizer | Violation Tracker

Violation Tracker, produced by the Corporate Research Project of Good Jobs First, is a wide-ranging database on misconduct by large and small corporations throughout the United States.

violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org

 

[tgh]

Meanwhile…...

 

[Lynda2475]

I've decided I will likely return to the US to get my vaccine which I can obtain now. It will be Pfizer, Moderna or JnJ. Unfortunately they have put doubts into my head about AZ and I am sure that's happening a lot of places.

Depending on which state you return to, you likely will be able to choose which one you get. My ex lives in Manhattan, when NY announced eligibility for anyone over 30 a couple of weeks ago, he started ringing clinics to book his shot. He said all volunteered which vaccine they were giving, he opted for J&J because he felt 1 shot was more efficient and needs to travel soon.

People like to feel they have some control/choice in which vaccine they get, choice should lead to greater up take.

 

[Lynda2475]

here is also a very interesting moral / ethical discussion here.

So the Australia gov is probably behind the scenes wading back into the negotiation pool to desperately try and save their political future (cough sorry, the populations health) and secure another proverbial tonne of other vaccines.

But should we really be? There is no covid here.

Perhaps nations overrun by covid where people are dropping dead everyday should be prioritised over a rich covid free country that is annoyed because we can’t go on holidays....

It’s an interesting predicament....

Disagree with some of the sentiment. The whole point of vaccinating is to reduce future risk. We still routinely vaccinate for diseases that are eradicated in the Australian community like Polio and measles because there is always a risk of an international arrival bringing it back in.

Its also not just about wanting to travel, it is also about being able to safely open up business i.e. international students and reduce costs of HQ for air and freight crews etc.

The wealthy nation guilt trip wont wash with most Australias, we pay some of the highest taxes in the world so we have universal healthcare and we expect to be looked after.

Because we don't have a material Covid risk outside of HQ we can afford for many of the population to wait for a vaccine that has lower risk of causing other serious health issues. Is this rich nation privilege? Perhaps, but not a reason to leave us further behind our western cohort.

If we can secure timely supply of more Pfizer (or Moderna subject to TGA), then we can donate our unneeded excess AZ to poorer neighbours like PNG where the situation is much more dire, when the risk of getting and dying from Covid is much higher you willing to overlook other lower risks,

Its a numbers game, and the risk profile here makes AZ more risky than getting Covid for the younger cohort.

And importantly, if you are under 50 and personally choose (in conjunction with your GP) to accept the risks that come along with the AZ vaccine you can still choose to get it. The new directive is a health advice recommendation not a prohibition. It looks like there will be a lot of local AZ supply freeing up as many under 50s wait for the Pfizer, so those who are ok with a blood clot risk can then likely access those shots earlier than the original plan,

 

[RAM]

Well @RAM you have distinguished yourself again as the master of conspiracy theories..The true figure for German cases of clotting after the AZ vaccine is not 10000 the number of usual cases of this type of clotting but 1 in 90000.This is some 10 times greater than the number that has occurred in the UK.
The other thing you are obviously unaware of is that sometimes clusters do happen by chance._ though unlikely in this instance.I have reported 2 instances of suspicious clusters in my time.Heart attacks in Rayon workers and one of a cluster of thyroid cancer.Both turned out not to be proven.As did a famous case in Brisbane of cancer in ABC staffers.

The German numbers though certainly do seem unusual compared to other countries so the true incidence is still therefore unknown.In medicine though caution is the key.So the reccomendations given I do agree with.
However what worries me is that the Europeans think the reason for this effect is antibodies produced in reaction to the vaccine cross react with platelets.As this disease is more common with Covid than after the vaccine so far it is possible that this may eventually be seen with other vaccines.After all they all aim to produce antibodies to Covid.

I did like your little praise of NZ by saying they got in early getting extra doses of Pfizer on March 7 then of course listed Greg Hunt ordering extra doses on Feb 7th.

And by your figures Pfizer have delivered just on 1 million doses of vaccine by the end of March.Just half of what was agreed to in the initial contract.

But I really have to laugh at your implication that AZ is less trueful than Pfizer.I wonder why you didn't post Pfizer's record on fines from the same source as you used for AZ.Maybe because they have been fined more including the largest fine ever in 2009.

pfizer | Violation Tracker

Violation Tracker, produced by the Corporate Research Project of Good Jobs First, is a wide-ranging database on misconduct by large and small corporations throughout the United States.

violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org

Drron you have twisted the figures yet again.

When the current released information does not match your narrative you resort to playing the man not the ball - and label it as a 'conspiracy theory'. Your earlier posts when this clotting issue first apeared labelled any possible linkage also as 'conspiracy theories' by me.

1. One comparing a rate per annum (normal incidence in entire population) with a rate for a few week period (AZ doses given) is misleading at best and corrupt at worst.
2. You for some reason missed the point that the rate for under 40s apparently caused by the AZ vaccine is > 10,000 times the incidence normally per annum for the incidence of that rare blood clotting condition in under 40s. Please compare like with like. It is fallacious to compare (for example) the death rate of 80 yr olds with that of 30 yr olds and say it is the same thing.
3. Selective quoting is never a positive sign.
4. The NZ Govt saw the mounting body of evidence & immediately sought to pivot. They ordered enough additional doses of Pfizer to vaccinate the entire NZ population despite already having contracted in 2020 to over-cover their population based on a risk mitigation strategy of not putting all their eggs in the one vaccine basket which the Federal Govt did with the Uni of Qld vaccine program. Will you admit that is a fact and not a conspiracy theory?
5. The Fed Govt roll-out has been an abject failure. In your own words the Federal Govt had over 1 million doses of Pfizer (alone) available to distribute to Priority 1A recipients as well around 1 million AZ doses by the end of March - yet under 700,000 doses out of over 2 million had been achieved. The states had actually put more doses into arms as a proportion of the Priority 1A cohort despite not having access to the required number of doses that the Cwth private contractors did & do. The under 700,000 doses were reached with close to 180,000 added in the final three days as the AZ doses were given to GPs. The proportion of Pfizer doses sitting in the Fed Govt's hands despite being approved for delivery is in the hundreds of thousands despite the fact that it is only a 3 week delay between doses. Again - all spelt out in my previous posts using Dept of Health figures = facts not conspiracy theory.
6. You seem to have missed that I wrote that the deaths were in Italy & Germany - your response only mentions Germany.
7. If the Fed Govt wanted to get all Australians vaccinated as soon as possible as their number 1 objective - then they would have sought to order a meaningful quantity of the additional Pfizer vaccines available for delivery starting in April (as NZ did) instead of persisting with the AZ consistently over-promised & under-delivered domestic supply.

Do you think the Australian Govt made the right choice to put 100% of orders into the Uni of Qld vaccine last year?

Do you think that the rollout of Priority 1A vaccine delivery has been well done by the Federal Govt?

Do you think that having zero aged or disability care staff Priority 1A) vaccinated by late March is another Federal Govt success?

Could it be that as the Federal Govt put most of its eggs in the AZ basket following its mistake with all of its eggs in the Uni of Qld basket - that politics has really been driving the 'Australian' official response to the AZ clotting issues compared with the response by virtually every other country using the AZ vaccine (bar the UK)?

 

[RAM]

Well @RAM you have distinguished yourself again as the master of conspiracy theories..The true figure for German cases of clotting after the AZ vaccine is not 10000 the number of usual cases of this type of clotting but 1 in 90000.This is some 10 times greater than the number that has occurred in the UK.
The other thing you are obviously unaware of is that sometimes clusters do happen by chance._ though unlikely in this instance.I have reported 2 instances of suspicious clusters in my time.Heart attacks in Rayon workers and one of a cluster of thyroid cancer.Both turned out not to be proven.As did a famous case in Brisbane of cancer in ABC staffers.

The German numbers though certainly do seem unusual compared to other countries so the true incidence is still therefore unknown.In medicine though caution is the key.So the reccomendations given I do agree with.
However what worries me is that the Europeans think the reason for this effect is antibodies produced in reaction to the vaccine cross react with platelets.As this disease is more common with Covid than after the vaccine so far it is possible that this may eventually be seen with other vaccines.After all they all aim to produce antibodies to Covid.

I did like your little praise of NZ by saying they got in early getting extra doses of Pfizer on March 7 then of course listed Greg Hunt ordering extra doses on Feb 7th.

And by your figures Pfizer have delivered just on 1 million doses of vaccine by the end of March.Just half of what was agreed to in the initial contract.

But I really have to laugh at your implication that AZ is less trueful than Pfizer.I wonder why you didn't post Pfizer's record on fines from the same source as you used for AZ.Maybe because they have been fined more including the largest fine ever in 2009.

pfizer | Violation Tracker

Violation Tracker, produced by the Corporate Research Project of Good Jobs First, is a wide-ranging database on misconduct by large and small corporations throughout the United States.

violationtracker.goodjobsfirst.org

Simple when it comes to the CV vaccine their is only one company that has been caught being untruthful about the efficacy of their vaccine and that is AstraZeneca.

Pfizer has not been repeatedly caught out falsifying the data on its CV vaccine, I don't recall them even being caught once. That is a clear point of difference this time around.

You seem to forget, again, that in response to one of your normal 'conspiracy theory' diversion attempts on one of my earlier postings in 2020 in which I cautioned on being too trusting of 'Big Pharma' - I posted the Pfizer fine history as well.

It is 100% factual that AstraZeneca was caught putting out multiple times, in late March 2021, false 'efficacy' figures for their US trials - do you concede that Drron?

Do you also concede that the latest data suggest that the AstraZeneca vaccine has a 50% efficacy in reducing Asymptomatic cases?

 

[RooFlyer]

There have been a lot of woeful responses on here this morning about the AZ announcements last night, with a mix of what I consider are distortions and conspiracy theories.

I was just about to post much the same thing - its sad that an announcement like last night's brings out the nutters, the sub-nutters and conspiracy theorists in society (if they are not the same thing). I wonder why these people don't micro-analyse things like the annual flu vaccination, with its fatalities, stuff ups and supply issues? Oh, maybe they do and the COVID vaccine is a welcome relief from an annual obsession.

 

[burmans]

Semantics perhaps but you stated that the only thing that has changed is the political positioning.
That’s not true.
The medical advice for Australia currently as the risk/ benefit stands has changed.
Definitely not good news for the borders opening up but Prof Cheng and the rest of ATAGI don’t look at that or have any political positioning in making recommendations around the vaccines.

I think Jakeseven is looking wider than just in Australia, the global view on AZ has been tending more negative than Australia for quite some time. Politicians in Australian have been extremely slow to recognise this (as has the medical community until we had a blood clotting case here).

 

[jonboixxx]

Anyway, here is a graphical representation: (looks like there was a bit of an Easter break)

View attachment 244128

Nice curve forming there.

 

[JessicaTam]

Well I for one am happy that I have got my first jab. And the fact it is AZ is neither here nor there as far as I am concerned. The only advantage Pfizer has for me is that it is done and dusted in 3 weeks, not 12.

In my job and leisure time I have the potential to be exposed to all sorts of nasties. So I will take any vaccine I can get. Such a small risk of a clot barely raises an eyebrow for me.

I am reminded of when I first went for my various travel vaccines - yellow fever and the like: The doctor was putting little stickers all over my yellow vaccination record card. I asked what I would win if I filled in every square. His deadpan response: “You won’t die!”

 

[RooFlyer]

Those most at risk - front liners etc, have Pfizer, all good. About 3.5 million more of these are already on order. Not enough, sure, but will cover many more of those most at risk.

The next at risk - the seniors and older people with underlying medical conditions can safely get AZ, - all good.

Those at much lesser risk of getting seriously ill with COVID - under 50s, may have to wait a little longer OR, taking the risks as they are measured and in comparison with equivalent or greater medical and other risks they accept every day, they can opt for AZ.

The sky isn't falling, folks, nor is there some sinister gov'mint conspiracy to ... well, I don't know what the conspiracy could possibly be. Like most conspiracy theories, the rationale is not readily apparent.

As for waiting longer - there is little or no covid in the community in Australia AND if you think you are going to be able to safely travel overseas this year (other than a few bubble countries), I reckon you are dreaming, and not only from insurance and government (ours or theirs) travel restrictions points of view. Just be thankful that we are in one of the safest countries on earth.

Oh - just a thought. I wonder where those who were complaining that the roll-out was all too slow are at? Can you imagine the howls if the government had super rushed the roll-out (if there was suppy, which there hasn't been), gave everyone the AZ and then announced this? Wah! They didn't do enough research! Wah! Our health is at risk!