Superjumbo stalled another year

[garyjohn951]

I spoke to a "bookie" friend and asked him some odds after discussing the continuing delays and he said the best odds he would quote would be for last qter 2009; 1st qter 2010, with anything earlier at growing odds !

 

[Yada Yada]

I spoke to a "bookie" friend and asked him some odds after discussing the continuing delays and he said the best odds he would quote would be for last qter 2009; 1st qter 2010, with anything earlier at growing odds !

Hmmm... sounds like a good idea for a competition in The Playground forum. :mrgreen:

 

[markis10]

Well the US carriers must be laughing with their plans given that not one has placed an order for a 380, and Airbus need another 200 orders to breakeven!

 

[maninblack]

I am not one to disappoint

That's a pretty bold statement. Can you justify it?

Lets look at just what Qantas has ordered since 2000.

• 747-400ER was ordered in November 2000 and first delivery was in October 2002. Again I believe these have been a good investment for Qantas. Perhaps they could now use a few more of them, but at the time the order was placed the numbers were appropriate.
  
• A380 was ordered in November 2000 (initial Letter of Intent dated 29th November 2000). Initially deliveries were expected in late 2005, and as we now know that has slipped by 2 years.
  
• At the same time they ordered 7 x A330-200 and 6 x A330-300. These numbers have changed slightly since the initial order as they changed one -200 for a -300 and ordered a few more -300s in January 2004. I know your view is that QF should have bought A340 instead, but the additional capital cost and ongoing maintenance costs would have meant either more debt and higher operating costs (lower margins or higher fares, take your pick) or less aircraft could have been purchased. The airbus special A380 sale incentive was for A330 aircraft and not A340 since Airbus had some A330 delivery slots they needed to allocate and did not have the slack on the A340 order book at the time.
  
• 737-800 was ordered in late 2001 with first deliveries in Feb 2002. In my view that was a good move as they could source aircraft at short notice as AA was unable/unwilling to take delivery of their initial commitment and Boeing was willing to move the slots to QF. They have become the backbone of the domestic operation. Another 5 x 737-800 were ordered in March 2004.
  
• Six new 717s were announced in April 2002 for deliver in May and June that year. As we now know these became part of the initial Jetstar fleet and are now back in QantasLink colours. I think they have been quite successful and proven to be versatile in the QF fleet.
  
• in December 2003 Qantas ordered 6 new Dash 8-Q300 aircraft for delivery in the first half of 2004. These have been the backbone of the regional network in Qld and NSW as well as operating some services to Tasmania.
  
• Also in December 2003 Qantas launched Jetstar and announced the order for 23 x A320 aircraft. Whether we like JQ or not, the A320 seems to have been a good choice for them.
  
• In January 2005 Qantas announced the purchase of 7 x Dash 8-Q400 aircraft.
  
• In December 2005, Qantas announced its order for 65 x Boeing 787s (plus 50 options).

So just which of these were orders for the wrong aircraft?

Okay, thats a lot to answer and I am not saying that every decision was wrong. But here goes on a few.

That was (and it has been proven) never going to be enough 747-400ER aircraft. They were banking on the A380 but the usefulness of this plane is not even proven, the 747-400 still remains the undefeated heavyweight champ.

A-380 has slipped by at least two years, probably 3-4 by the time they have decent numbers in service.

We will have to agree to disagree about the A-340 but I bet they would be smiling now if they had 15 of them instead of A-330's. If they had A-340's and a few more 744's they could have retired the 743's and perhaps even a few 763's thus making up for the higher op costs of the 340's and provided passengers a better service too.

the 737-800 is excellent, but why no in seat power, personal IFE etc. They are going to have to retrofit these items eventually because the opposition will have them. Also, what are they going to use on the big trunk routes like MEL-SYD in a few years when the 767's are going out of service. Is this to be 787?

The Dash-8 is not my favorite. They may be cost effective but for us paying customers the CRJ would have been better. The Dash-8's aren't flying to dirt strips, mostly to places like Canberra, Launceston, Devonport, Tamworth, Newcastle etc which can all handle regional jets. they are also highly flexible for charter ops etc. My friend is going to Launceston next month and of course he will be on a Virgin 737, not a mosquito.

As to the 787, no problem but the first of these is at least two years away.

You are right that given circumstances, QF's choices have not been terrible, I just wonder if some of them could have been better.

 

[NM]

Well the US carriers must be laughing with their plans given that not one has placed an order for a 380, and Airbus need another 200 orders to breakeven!

Indeed I think there are some worried people in Toulouse. And with all the compensation to be paid out, and the delayed revenue flow that comes with the delayed deliveries, I think the additional 200 orders for break-even may still be a little shy of the mark. But with all the hidden accounting and subsidies its going to be impossible to know if and when the program breaks even.

 

[NM]

And now a report in ATW Online is suggesting the delays in the A380 program and going to have a flow-on affect for the A350XWB program, with first deliveries not expected until 2013. Now that is going to hurt Airbus given that Boeing has already posted orders for over 440 x 787 aircraft.

 

[maninblack]

And now a report in ATW Online is suggesting the delays in the A380 program and going to have a flow-on affect for the A350XWB program, with first deliveries not expected until 2013. Now that is going to hurt Airbus given that Boeing has already posted orders for over 440 x 787 aircraft.

Remember too that various industry people suggested some years ago that the A-380 may prove to be a great 'white-elephant' and could send Airbus broke. But on the other hand many people said the same about Boeing and the 747 way back when. Time will tell.

 

[simongr]

Indeed I think there are some worried people in Toulouse. And with all the compensation to be paid out, and the delayed revenue flow that comes with the delayed deliveries, I think the additional 200 orders for break-even may still be a little shy of the mark. But with all the hidden accounting and subsidies its going to be impossible to know if and when the program breaks even.

Also - once the plane is flying effectively and the production process is working - this has to be the plane of the future. Given there are finite slots at airports and a growing global population - more pax/plane has to be the go. This is a glitch as I reckon Boeing must have their own eye on a super-jumbo - maybe even a 700 seater (based on standard config rather than max config) to fill the gap until hypersonic jets become practical.

 

[JohnK]

Hmmm... sounds like a good idea for a competition in The Playground forum. :mrgreen:

Yeah and we'd probably have to wait 4+ years to find out the winner.

 

[Altair]

Remember too that various industry people suggested some years ago that the A-380 may prove to be a great 'white-elephant' and could send Airbus broke. But on the other hand many people said the same about Boeing and the 747 way back when. Time will tell.

If EK, SQ and QF cancel their orders then the A380 may be our generation's Concorde. I have no doubt that it will make revenue service, but like Concorde (also the SST) there is not much to stop the airlines from cancelling it leaving only a handful of operators.
SQ has cancelled orders or returned planes before, MD11 and A340-300.
QF is begining to feel a capex issue and their forecasts have been based on having the A380 in service, especially on the US routes and later LHR.
EK is starting to face competition issues from other airlines in the region and staffing and access, many analysts are wondering how they are going to fill these planes.
The 747 nearly did bankrupt Boeing, they gambled their entire capital on the project at the insistence of Juan Tripp of Pan Am, their form of subsidies were the revenue coming in from their military contracts. The 747 nearly killed PA, it took a few more bad decisions, political and commercial to do it, as they started to appear at a start of a recession.
I have said before I like the A380, it is a little ugly, but I think it will be beneficial for many passengers, unless they carry waif seats there is no way they can get 11 across in the main-cabin which leaves 10 across "777 level of comfort". I do not look forward to QF/JQ 787 9 across "comfort" levels. It is unfortunate that Airbus has managed to stuff it up in the best way they can.

 

[NM]

Remember too that various industry people suggested some years ago that the A-380 may prove to be a great 'white-elephant' and could send Airbus broke. But on the other hand many people said the same about Boeing and the 747 way back when. Time will tell.

Indeed only time will tell. As with most of these things its not going to be a single situation or event that makes or breaks the A380 or Airbus as a manufacturer. Its an extremely complex environment and it only takes a few difficulties to be compounded to change the outlook significantly - think how September 11, followed by war in the middle east and SARS affected the entire industry (manufacturers, airlines, airports, passengers etc).

 

[jasonja3]

As with most of these things its not going to be a single situation or event that makes or breaks the A380 or Airbus as a manufacturer. Its an extremely complex environment and it only takes a few difficulties to be compounded to change the outlook significantly

This is very true, yet Airbus are blaming cabling installation, a single contributor..... It must be much more complex than that, my bet is that it more like the systems than the medium that they are having trouble with. IMO cabling infrastructure, although complicated on a mdern aircraft, can be designed AND tested using state of the art software, prior to installation. All that said, I also don't think that it takes such a long period to fix. Just my opinion!!

Man, can you imagine the pressure on the design and production team!!

 

[Altair]

This is very true, yet Airbus are blaming cabling installation, a single contributor..... It must be much more complex than that, my bet is that it more like the systems than the medium that they are having trouble with. IMO cabling infrastructure, although complicated on a mdern aircraft, can be designed AND tested using state of the art software, prior to installation. All that said, I also don't think that it takes such a long period to fix. Just my opinion!!

Man, can you imagine the pressure on the design and production team!!

I thought Airbus' last statement said that the software they were using was not integrating the wiring together eg. the different aircraft sections harnesses could not "join". This meant the pre-fabrication then assembly point process failed and they basically have to hand re-wire the airframes in their assembled state. This is one of the rationales behind moving the assembly process to one site, Tolouse. The use of different software and the "lack of sufficient training" feels like Airbus are now having a go at their design team, well at least management. I would hate to be on the design team right now.
Regarding the computer testing, it was not working when they tested it in real-life, there was electrical interference, so they had to remove the re-installed wires. Note the customer electric systems have yet to be certified, but the airframe certification is at least progressing with Airbus indicating that performance at least meets expectations.

 

[Skyring]

If EK, SQ and QF cancel their orders then the A380 may be our generation's Concorde. I have no doubt that it will make revenue service, but like Concorde (also the SST) there is not much to stop the airlines from cancelling it leaving only a handful of operators.
I have said before I like the A380, it is a little ugly, but I think it will be beneficial for many passengers, unless they carry waif seats there is no way they can get 11 across in the main-cabin which leaves 10 across "777 level of comfort". I do not look forward to QF/JQ 787 9 across "comfort" levels. It is unfortunate that Airbus has managed to stuff it up in the best way they can.

Qantas has stated that they will carry 501 on the A380, and SQ 475. Those are amazing figures for a plane 50% bigger than the B747 and have to translate to new levels of comfort and space.

Concorde wasn't widely accepted because it came at the wrong time, had a limited market, and was only built in small numbers. It only had one competitor and that was a dog. Both were aimed at flagship, prestige, low volume routes. Much as people would like to get to a distant destination a lot faster, most aren't prepared to pay huge amounts of money for saving a few hours, just as most travellers prefer not to pay several times the cost of an economy ticket for the comfort of a higher class.

The A380 is aimed at efficiency and is a competitor to the B747. Regardless of whether airlines cancel orders, it will fly commercially, and if it can deliver on efficiency, there is a reason for airlines to buy it.

 

[NM]

Concorde wasn't widely accepted because it came at the wrong time, had a limited market, and was only built in small numbers. It only had one competitor and that was a dog. Both were aimed at flagship, prestige, low volume routes. Much as people would like to get to a distant destination a lot faster, most aren't prepared to pay huge amounts of money for saving a few hours, just as most travellers prefer not to pay several times the cost of an economy ticket for the comfort of a higher class.

Between June 1963 and April 1984, there were over 100 orders placed for Concorde. Obviously most of those were later cancelled. It is interesting to see the list of airlines that had placed orders, including QF, AA, UA, CO, Pan Am, TWA, MEA, LH, JAL, Air India, Air Canada, and Iran Air.

The fact that many airlines planning to operate the A380 with considerably less than the 555 seats specified by Airbus leads me to interpret that they perceive the A380 as a premium product in a similar way to how Concorde was marketed. They plan to make money by selling more premium tickets rather than bulk low fare tickets.

One of the main reasons most Concorde customers cancelled their orders was the sudden rise in fuel prices in the late 1960s, making the aircraft unviable to operate. That was not foreseen by the initial customers nor the manufacturer. Now the A380 (and 787 and A350XWB) are somewhat protected from the skyrocketing fuel prices at the moment, and their next generation of fuel efficiency actually make them more attractive (unlike Concorde which suffered greatly from the fuel price hikes). However, the next unforeseen complication may have a similar affect on these new aircraft. Perhaps global terrorism, perhaps bird flu, perhaps political instability in many regions, perhaps something we cannot even consider right now.

But just like Concorde did eventually enter the market and was operating commercially for over 30 years, I am sure we will see the A380 grace the skys. Just how many of the 150 orders will be delivered (hopefully all 150) and how many future orders are added is yet to be determined.

 

[serfty]

This is very true, yet Airbus are blaming cabling installation, a single contributor..... It must be much more complex than that, my bet is that it more like the systems than the medium that they are having trouble with. IMO cabling infrastructure, although complicated on a mdern aircraft, can be designed AND tested using state of the art software, prior to installation. All that said, I also don't think that it takes such a long period to fix. Just my opinion!!

Man, can you imagine the pressure on the design and production team!!

There have been reports about Brake Issues and Wing Problems. In regard to the "wiring issue", this was the reason quoted for the inital delays in May last year. I find it hard to believe that nearly 1½ years later this hasn't been sorted.

There have been other issues, some quite major. IMO, What we have here is spin; reporting the delay problem as "a wiring issue" seems a lot safter than mentioning problems like "Wing" or "Brake" failure.

 

[oz_mark]

There have been reports about Brake Issues and Wing Problems. In regard to the "wiring issue", this was the reason quoted for the inital delays in May last year. I find it hard to believe that nearly 1½ years later this hasn't been sorted.

There have been other issues, some quite major. IMO, What we have here is spin; reporting the delay problem as "a wiring issue" seems a lot safter than mentioning problems like "Wing" or "Brake" failure.

Wiring issues are still being quoted as the problem. For example:

EADS sees more A380 delays; delivery time, financial impact not finalised UPDATE - Forbes.com

'Continuing industrialisation challenges with the wiring of production aircraft have been identified and are being tackled,' it said in a statement, adding that A380 flight tests are progressing as planned.

 

[Skyring]

However, the next unforeseen complication may have a similar affect on these new aircraft. Perhaps global terrorism, perhaps bird flu, perhaps political instability in many regions, perhaps something we cannot even consider right now.

Terrorism could be something. A plane full of hundreds of Westerners has got to be a juicier target than a Dash-8, especially if the effort required is the same.

 

[oz_mark]

If EK, SQ and QF cancel their orders then the A380 may be our generation's Concorde. I have no doubt that it will make revenue service, but like Concorde (also the SST) there is not much to stop the airlines from cancelling it leaving only a handful of operators.

As bad as the delay of the A380 is for Qantas, it would be having a much larger impact on SQ and EK. The problem as I see it, were they to cancel, was that they would still need something, and just what would that something be? Given the time lines that they need the aircraft in, I would think that they do not have lots of options at this point in time.

 

[NM]

Maybe Airbus should have build the freighter version first. Much fewer problems around the cabin wiring for the A380-800F model. And they could have had a revenue stream coming in while they sorted out the passenger version.

Perhaps Boeing are pleased that their initial orders for the 747-8 are for freighter versions . Not that I would expect the cabin wiring for the 747-8 to be significantly different from the 747-400.