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so what routes will VA cut ?

serfty

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There's more to both airlines route networks than LAX. VA have said that LAX is doing well for them, no doubt on the back of the DL partnership, as DL have only 1 flight a day for their customers vs 3 for UA and even more for QF/AA.
Also, VA's trans Pacific soft product (other than First which VA don't have ) is generally better than QF's equivalent.
 

ozfflyer

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y
That's been going on for a while. Well before the MAX issues
yes but in a slowing economy VA are doing 8 x BNE/NAN/BNE a week (7 x B738s & 1 x A332). Suggest that FJ have a problem of not enough aircraft (think they have 2 maxs grounded, but have only leased 1 x B738, was Miami Air, now Malindo air. Many people won't fly airlines they have never heard of, that's if they find out before boarding.

Fiji must be booming, as sale fare BNE/NAN return seems to be about $600-$630, whereas the sale fare BNE/NAN/LAX is around $800 return. (the fare to NAN only includes Fiji tax of about $135; the fare to LAX doesn't include that unless stop in fiji for 3 nights or more, but there are some U.S. taxes)
 
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Isochronous

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y

yes but in a slowing economy VA are doing 8 x BNE/NAN/BNE a week (7 x B738s & 1 x A332). Suggest that FJ have a problem of not enough aircraft (think they have 2 maxs grounded, but have only leased 1 x B738, was Miami Air, now Malindo air. Many people won't fly airlines they have never heard of, that's if they find out before boarding.

Fiji must be booming, as sale fare BNE/NAN return seems to be about $600-$630, whereas the sale fare BNE/NAN/LAX is around $800 return. (the fare to NAN only includes Fiji tax of about $135; the fare to LAX doesn't include that unless stop in fiji for 3 nights or more, but there are some U.S. taxes)
Perhaps with AUD falling and Aus economy slowing, people can only afford an overseas holiday to Fiji now instead of venturing to more expensive destinations like USA, Japan, Europe etc.
 

ozfflyer

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Perhaps with AUD falling and Aus economy slowing, people can only afford an overseas holiday to Fiji now instead of venturing to more expensive destinations like USA, Japan, Europe etc.
it's all perception. The AUD$ is not that weak against the USD$. Right now it's at 0.6868 which is about 1.5% less than 0.70 which is the average it's been for the last 8 or 10 months.

See graph below from www.xe.com

Fiji is not necessarily cheap either, but perception is it's closer so airfares must be a lot less.

Fly 4 or 5 Jan(A332) for a week & you're looking at $1k/adult return on VA.

USA has never been cheaper, due to oversupply & the fact that U.S. resorts adjust their prices to suit the AUD$.

I know for skiing, it's now much much cheaper to ski in USA than it was when AUD$1 = USD$1.

1568192056258.png
 
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Downthetrack

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According to ABC north west Queensland. The Wednesday return flight Brisbane - Cloncurry has been cut from october
 

ozfflyer

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According to ABC north west Queensland. The Wednesday return flight Brisbane - Cloncurry has been cut from october
isn't that flight operated by an Alliance F100 ?

+ to drive CNJ to ISA is less than hour & 1/2.

The Mon & Tue ISA/BNE VA flights(F100 - Alliance ?) go via CNJ
 

exceladdict

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...

For the avoidance of doubt every B737 and A330 flight of our Perth to Syd/Mel/Bne has been 99% or 100% full. Business class has always been full or near full on A330's.
...
Last VA A330 I took BNE-PER was very light and I enjoyed 4 seats in the middle. Though, the PER-SYD i took before that probably only had a handful empty.
Work strictly Y so no idea what was happening up front.

OTOH, PER<>BNE QF legs I've had of late have almost always been chockers (aircraft aside). Yield and/or capacity management is working well.
 

Kiran

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Did SYD-LST on Tuesday, one of my semi regular routes and a single daily service that's got to be on the radar for the chop. I think most of those single daily flights are at risk - Ballina, Coffs etc.

Anyway, the LST flight was about 2/3 full, 5 of 8 seats in J taken. Nice flight, satay chicken skewers and great FA in J, nice views of Flinders Island. Jetstar would suck after that.

Anyone know what the loads are like on HBA-PER and OOL-PER? It would be a shame is such innovative routes went.
I flew PER-HBA last month and it was 90% full. It was a great flight, tasty food, beautiful views. I noticed lots of tourists probably beginning their Australian holiday in Perth before heading to Tasmania.
 

dajop

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I flew PER-HBA last month and it was 90% full. It was a great flight, tasty food, beautiful views. I noticed lots of tourists probably beginning their Australian holiday in Perth before heading to Tasmania.
Yes, probably a sensible way of getting to Tassie.

Interesting bit of trivia, this flight + QF 9 allows the foolhardy (connecting between two carriers on different tickets) the quickest route from HBA to LHR, with just a single stop in PER (on Fridays)!
 

Jousams

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The domestic business is actually performing okay. EBIT was about $215m i wouldn't expect major cuts here.
 

Isochronous

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it's all perception. The AUD$ is not that weak against the USD$. Right now it's at 0.6868 which is about 1.5% less than 0.70 which is the average it's been for the last 8 or 10 months.

See graph below from www.xe.com

Fiji is not necessarily cheap either, but perception is it's closer so airfares must be a lot less.

Fly 4 or 5 Jan(A332) for a week & you're looking at $1k/adult return on VA.

USA has never been cheaper, due to oversupply & the fact that U.S. resorts adjust their prices to suit the AUD$.

I know for skiing, it's now much much cheaper to ski in USA than it was when AUD$1 = USD$1.

View attachment 187133
I think too many people got accustomed to the dollar being 75c +, which it was for quite a while.

Resorts may adjust pricing for Australians if you book via the right website but all your incidentals remain more expensive, especially with the need to factor in 20pc for tipping whether it's for taxis or restaurants.

I'm surprised that skiing in the USA is now cheaper than when the dollar was at parity.
 

Stealthflyer

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Yes, probably a sensible way of getting to Tassie.

Interesting bit of trivia, this flight + QF 9 allows the foolhardy (connecting between two carriers on different tickets) the quickest route from HBA to LHR, with just a single stop in PER (on Fridays)!
Ooh I might have to look into that. I hate the 2 transits (particularly before the final MEL-HBA leg).
 

ozfflyer

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I think too many people got accustomed to the dollar being 75c +, which it was for quite a while.

Resorts may adjust pricing for Australians if you book via the right website but all your incidentals remain more expensive, especially with the need to factor in 20pc for tipping whether it's for taxis or restaurants.

I'm surprised that skiing in the USA is now cheaper than when the dollar was at parity.
it hasn't been 75 cents since June 2018, 15 months ago (see graph below from xe.com).

No you can't book online & get Australian prices for USA ski resorts. Online is price Americans pay. You have to deal with an Australian agent.

Food is relatively cheap in USA. Biggest problem is too much choice.

Who tips 20% ? 10% pre tax absolute maximum for exceptional service.

Skiing in USA is by far the cheapest place in the world to ski right now for 10 to 14 days or more, even when take into account airfares, due to price war between the many ski resorts & airlines.

This weeks emails include (below is straight from email recd this week)

adult lift tickets from AUD$49 a day, with 4 kids free, so if have 4 kids, that's less than AUD$10/day, or about 97% off the ticket window price of USD$170/adult/day & kids USD$125.

Even on snow accommodations are cheap. From AUD$215/night for a 3 star apartment that can sleep 6 for most nights in January & February 2020 except long weekends.

( Am sure at that price is small, but many people live in tiny apartments on snow in Australia & NZ)

1568268895681.png
 

dajop

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How much of the US flights are filled with people going on ski-holidays? I suspect many (in fact >90% of pax) are either business travellers, VFR traffic or those taking in the various sights of North America - such as NYC, San Fran, LA, theme parks, Canada, Florida etc etc. I bet your bottom dollar that New York hoteliers don't drop their rates for Australians when the AUD drops either.

Anyway, remind me, why we are talking about US ski holidays again in this thread? I thought it was well established, including comments from PS himself, that VA's LAX services are actually working well for them.
 

ozfflyer

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How much of the US flights are filled with people going on ski-holidays? I suspect many (in fact >90% of pax) are either business travellers, VFR traffic or those taking in the various sights of North America - such as NYC, San Fran, LA, theme parks, Canada, Florida etc etc. I bet your bottom dollar that New York hoteliers don't drop their rates for Australians when the AUD drops either.

Anyway, remind me, why we are talking about US ski holidays again in this thread? I thought it was well established, including comments from PS himself, that VA's LAX services are actually working well for them.
AM sure VA flights to LAX are doing well in peak of peak season, but look on the fringes of peak season & lots of drip feeding going on, like last weeks $999 return departing 14JAN & coming home before school starts.

Yes maybe only 1 or 2 dozen seats each date, but next week, there'll be another dozen or 2 & so on.

In 2nd 1/2 of DEC & most of JAN, flights to LAX & SFO have a high % of skiers onboard. Not all are skiing in USA. Many are going to Canada via USA, as much cheaper than nonstops to YVR.

Funnily enough, the perception, that Canada must be cheaper due to exchange rates, is why many Australians head to Canada, when cheaper in USA in AUD$ & much easier to get to.

The Canadians have been banging on that Canada is cheaper, due to exchange rates, rather the the reality, that it's not.

NYC hotels do have long stay discounts aimed at Australians, as Americans have much shorter holidays than we do, but not between around 20DEC-3JAN. Theme parks also have prices in AUD$ which are cheaper than Americans pay.
 

ozfflyer

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what about this idea ?

VA needs daily flights BNE/LAX to compete with QF & daily flights MEL/LAX to compete with QF/UA.

What if instead of doing 14 flights per week SYD/LAX (VA1 & VA6552(DL metal) they cut back some of VA1 to allow BNE/LAX & MEL/LAX daily & some days the only VA flight was the DL codeshare ?

Is DL that different to VA on SYD/LAX ?

Timewise the the SYD/LAX flights can be separated by as little as 5 mins & LAX/SYD by 1 hour.

Obviously Americans prefer to fly DL & Australians VA.

SYD is no longer the epicentre of Australian business that it used to be & both BNE & MEL pax hate flying anywhere via SYD, especially internationally.
 

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