Should I stay or should I go (EuroZone)

[legroom]

Indeed. One wonders how Merkel thought this was going to end

Looks like it's the Germans that want to decide who gets to be the "lucky" host country...



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Your quoted map reminded me ..... Hamburg ..... Atta.

As it is, it appeared to be the "last" destination.

Were I involved in security vetting, this would be a nightmarish scenario: open borders, 70% plus single males, no paper trails, no source country to check / confirm anything.

From the purely social point of view, the heavily skewed male:female ratio is quite unbalanced and someone here wiser than me would be able to quote someone to say that it would be rather "unstable" to have that much imbalance. I would stand corrected otherwise.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

From the purely social point of view, the heavily skewed male:female ratio is quite unbalanced and someone here wiser than me would be able to quote someone to say that it would be rather "unstable" to have that much imbalance. I would stand corrected otherwise.

Possibly from a social point - but there may be flip sides from the workforce perspective (large numbers able to do unskilled work, so potentially less welfare), easier to find housing/accommodation (dorm rooms rather than 'family' rooms), and possibly less demands on other social services such as schooling and health.

 

[kelvedon]

75 years ago the arrows on the map pointed the other way.

 

[Kaiser]

Possibly from a social point - but there may be flip sides from the workforce perspective (large numbers able to do unskilled work, so potentially less welfare), easier to find housing/accommodation (dorm rooms rather than 'family' rooms), and possibly less demands on other social services such as schooling and health.

One theory for the skewed gender ration is that many of the men may be attempting to use family reunification laws to bring the rest of their family over once they have been processed and granted official asylum. The predicted total expected in EU this year does not take this into account - so potentially triple or quadruple that 800,000-1,000,000 figure. Munich is already having to resorting to using old accommodation from the 1972 Olympics in order to provide basic shelter - so I think housing will very much be a long term problem. As far as health and education is concerned- wouldn't the demand be increasing? Eg. vaccinations, health check ups, mental health, language programs etc?

Now that Merkel has suddenly realized that a rash decision based on emotion doesn't quite work, she expects the neighbouring countries to absorb the ramifications of that decision.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

As far as health and education is concerned- wouldn't the demand be increasing? Eg. vaccinations, health check ups, mental health, language programs etc?

yes - there would be 'base' health costs - things you point out like vaccines and stuff... but if you add women to the mix, there's the whole range of obstetrics to add. Education - again for language yes, but you could do that in a group class-room. If you have children, you need to find a range of on going places in pre-school, school and then university.

 

[Kaiser]

Ahh, I get where you are coming from now, I must've misread your original post as saying a general increase in numbers could reduce demand, which obviously didn't make sense to me - forgot to include the bit about gender ratios

 

[Timtammi]

I'm in Prague now and looking at that map will crossing over that wave in the next few days as we travel from Prague - Salzburg-venice-milan. Will let you know of any increased security or evidence of the refugees as we go. Hopefully it won't disrupt our plans.

 

[marki]

I'm in Prague now and looking at that map will crossing over that wave in the next few days as we travel from Prague - Salzburg-venice-milan. Will let you know of any increased security or evidence of the refugees as we go. Hopefully it won't disrupt our plans.

You are our live correspondent very unique in AFF terms.:mrgreen:

 

[medhead]

Possibly from a social point - but there may be flip sides from the workforce perspective (large numbers able to do unskilled work, so potentially less welfare), easier to find housing/accommodation (dorm rooms rather than 'family' rooms), and possibly less demands on other social services such as schooling and health.

An interest story in The Australian today outlining the benefits. Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian
Ghosts of Gastarbeiter prime Germany for influx of refugees
Google the title to get passed the paywall.

Basically a contracting population, predicted to reduce from 80 million to 70 million by 2050, leaving fewer than 2 working people to support each pensioner. Someone invoked South Park, but it sounds like there was no one in Germany to do the jobs anyway. Certainly some challenges with the influx, but sounds like immigration is needed to support the German economy.

Europe watched with a mixture of fear and admiration as Germany opened its doors to millions of *migrants, but it was left to the head of Mercedes, the embodiment of the country’s industrial might, to explain the simple motive behind the gesture.
“Most refugees are young, well-educated and highly motivated — they are exactly the people we need,” said Dieter Zetsche, chairman of the automotive giant.
“They could, like the guest workers from decades ago, help us preserve and improve our prosperity. For Germany cannot any more fill the jobs available only with Germans.”

Were I involved in security vetting, this would be a nightmarish scenario: open borders, 70% plus single males, no paper trails, no source country to check / confirm anything.

From the purely social point of view, the heavily skewed male:female ratio is quite unbalanced and someone here wiser than me would be able to quote someone to say that it would be rather "unstable" to have that much imbalance. I would stand corrected otherwise.

Do you have an actual link/hard numbers to support your claim about the male:female ratio. There are plenty of females in the pictures I've seen.

 

[marki]

An interest story in The Australian today outlining the benefits. Cookies must be enabled. | The Australian
Ghosts of Gastarbeiter prime Germany for influx of refugees
Google the title to get passed the paywall.

Basically a contracting population, predicted to reduce from 80 million to 70 million by 2050, leaving fewer than 2 working people to support each pensioner. Someone invoked South Park, but it sounds like there was no one in Germany to do the jobs anyway. Certainly some challenges with the influx, but sounds like immigration is needed to support the German economy.
Do you have an actual link/hard numbers to support your claim about the male:female ratio. There are plenty of females in the pictures I've seen.

Medhead Most probably still wondering what's it all about? I see you do now have an answer, not that you need one. Putin is in Syria, US and Australia are in Syria. Al Qaeda are calling for Young Muslim men to lone wolf attacks on the West, Germany reinstates border controls. If I cross a border illegally I expect they would jail me, deport me.(If I did it at Tullamarine). Many are country shopping. One Syrian refugee family were taken in by a friendly Eastern European town, given free housing, free medical care including medications, free education for their 4 children. The Parish priest was involved with there plight , Push Bikes were donated furniture clothes etc etc..honestly I would be overwhelmed with joy. I want for nothing. They left as soon as Angela opened the borders at night under the cover of darkness not saying a word to anyone. That's like a proverbial smack in the face with a glove.

UNHCR has the breakdown and the link was quoted in an earlier post. And since when does one believe the media so explicitly. Watching/read several media providers affords a more rounded view. IMHO

 

[medhead]

As far as I can tell you're talking a whole big load of emotional cough.

For a start it is not very humble to assume anything about the range of sources that I read, just because I linked to one convenient source. If you wish to use IMHO, perhaps try to do so in non-judgemental way - you know humbly.

I've checked all of the links in this thread, There is no ratio mentioned. Once again stop with this emotional rubbish about Al-Queda has called for lone wolf attacks, they've been doing that for years anyway. How about trying to actual address the question, then it won't look like someone is just making up numbers.

Medhead Most probably still wondering what's it all about? I see you do now have an answer, not that you need one. Putin is in Syria, US and Australia are in Syria. Al Qaeda are calling for Young Muslim men to lone wolf attacks on the West, Germany reinstates border controls. If I cross a border illegally I expect they would jail me, deport me.(If I did it at Tullamarine). Many are country shopping. One Syrian refugee family were taken in by a friendly Eastern European town, given free housing, free medical care including medications, free education for their 4 children. The Parish priest was involved with there plight , Push Bikes were donated furniture clothes etc etc..honestly I would be overwhelmed with joy. I want for nothing. They left as soon as Angela opened the borders at night under the cover of darkness not saying a word to anyone. That's like a proverbial smack in the face with a glove.

UNHCR has the breakdown and the link was quoted in an earlier post. And since when does one believe the media so explicitly. Watching/read several media providers affords a more rounded view. IMHO

 

[SeatBackForward]

I especially liked the photos of the "Syrian" refugees wearing Sikh turbans.

 

[marki]

Err pfft whatever "unemotional medhead" don't take things so personally. The real problem is

‘All the smugglers care about is money ... They don’t consider you human; they treat you like an object.’—Would-be Afghan migrant Azam Dastegir.

 

[legroom]

Do you have an actual link/hard numbers to support your claim about the male:female ratio. There are plenty of females in the pictures I've seen.

This set of data is slightly out of date but is expected to be indicative of the current situation as the mode of escape remains unchanged so far.

"...... There was a greater degree of gender inequality for asylum applicants aged 14–17 or 18–34, where around three quarters of applicants were male...."

75% !

The very definition of imbalance - if there is a need for one.

http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/mobile/index.php#Page?title=Asylum statistics&l

 

[burmans]

This set of data is slightly out of date but is expected to be indicative of the current situation as the mode of escape remains unchanged so far.

"...... There was a greater degree of gender inequality for asylum applicants aged 14–17 or 18–34, where around three quarters of applicants were male...."

75% !

The very definition of imbalance - if there is a need for one.

Statistics Explained

Oh, so young males workers in a country that wants more workers, clearly a real problem and drain on the economy!

 

[legroom]

Oh, so young males workers in a country that wants more workers, clearly a real problem and drain on the economy!

You were not addressing the gender imbalance I'm referring to.

Name for me one social study which advocates gender imbalance as 'desirable'.

People is already worried when the ratio (in India, China) is about 110:100 (M:F).

Keep calm .... and carry on !

 

[marki]

U.S. officials worry that American jet fighters could end up confronting Russian pilots over Syrian airspace, or that Russian airstrikes could target Syrian rebels backed by the U.S.(read in the WSJ)

This cannot be good for the long term prospects of people in the area. I can see why this will push more people out of Syria and surrounds.Barely a week has elapsed since Berlin opened its doors to Syrian refugees, and now it’s slamming them shut.

The imposition of border checks along Germany’s frontier with Austria on Sunday and similar moves elsewhere on Monday are the latest warning signal that Europe’s failure to manage the flow of asylum seekers could put at risk borderless travel across the European Continent—(one of the European Union’s signal achievements).

 

[drron]

Well here is an official breakdown on sex ratios of those claiming asylum in Europe in 2014.Overal 70% male-


Full report here-
Asylum statistics - Statistics Explained

But Europe doesn't seem to be as acepting as it seems.Less than 20% of final determinations of asylum status are positive.The great majority rejected-

 

[Timtammi]

Saw a large group of refugees in and around d salzburg station yesterday. Police and media in evidence and the red cross have a large tent setup just outside on the forecourt. Looked like mainly families to me, plenty of women and children, groups of men too although it was hard to tell if the men belonged with the women and children or not. Most appeared to be middle eastern in appearance and I would say majority were Muslim based on the dress code of the women.

 

[amaroo]

Well here is an official breakdown on sex ratios of those claiming asylum in Europe in 2014.Overal 70% male-


Full report here-
Asylum statistics - Statistics Explained

But Europe doesn't seem to be as acepting as it seems.Less than 20% of final determinations of asylum status are positive.The great majority rejected-

Jeez, the Germans clocking up an 84% rejection rate ... funny how the real world ruins a good story!