QF profit to fall 90% - shares falling

[yohy?!]

It is not so much the right price, but the right time. That time to buy will be not when the end of the current strategy is in sight, but when the future strategy is in sight.

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Yep that makes sense, would be similar to JB and VA situation recently.

 

[kamchatsky]

No way I would buy airline stocks. No dividends and keeps falling. Better off getting BHP whilst it is down now.

 

[browski]

$1.187 at 12.27pm

$1.17 at 1.34pm

 

[eastwest101]

I have successfully caught a few "falling knives" in my time - some worked and some didn't. But as others have said - its all in the timing. The market is very weird and irrational at the moment. If a company announces bad news then the share price gets smashed, announcing good news also gets you smashed at the moment.

AJ and the board composition could be a game changer to the share price, however resignation by AJ/boardmembers could promote further share price falls! But maybe more long-term stability or even growth.

As they say - "no-one rings a bell when its at the bottom of the market" or a good buying opportunity. Don't forget about a general sell-down of investors to crystallize capital losses, although capital losses aren't too hard to find at the moment!

 

[docjames]

I have successfully caught a few "falling knives" in my time - some worked and some didn't.

You've got to catch the handle, not the blade.....

 

[harvyk]

I almost get the feeling that QFi is splitting off to prevent the creative accounting (or at least the illusion of) of which they are frequently accused of.

It's a bit harder to demand a company "sells" you stuff below cost if they are no longer under you direct control, and the person who actually controls the purse strings has to answer to people other than you.

Also I strongly suspect AJ is feathering a nest for himself. But lets face it, every CEO on the planet of a for profit company is feathering nests for themselves. Such people don't take on such large responsibilities out of the goodness of their own hearts.

 

[SeatBackForward]

The Qantas ownership laws, do they apply to the entire company? or are there clauses that make it only applicable to interntional/domestic? For instance? might the Interntional component be kept as a national airline (or nationalised) while the domestic/freight and FF parts be siphoned off to the private equity sharks that were hunting around some time ago?

 

[moa999]

Again QFi is not splitting off, it is simply being reported as a separate division, with a separate head (given a CEO title).
The rumours on creative accounting will continue.

 

[markis10]

Again QFi is not splitting off, it is simply being reported as a separate division, with a separate head (given a CEO title).
The rumours on creative accounting will continue.

Not quite true, its two separate businesses that have their own entities under Australian corporations law and as a result, two AOCs, just like JQ.

 

[moa999]

I thought the two AOCs was still a question mark.
Whilst it may be a separate company, I expect QF will continue to report a single set of consolidated accounts, so the rumours on transfers, transfer pricing etc will continue. Looking at the Annual, QF has hundreds of subsidiaries.
As it is despite the separate AOCs, Jetstar is reported as a single group.

 

[markis10]

I thought the two AOCs was still a question mark.
Whilst it may be a separate company, I expect QF will continue to report a single set of consolidated accounts, so the rumours on transfers, transfer pricing etc will continue. Looking at the Annual, QF has hundreds of subsidiaries.
As it is despite the separate AOCs, Jetstar is reported as a single group.

No, if your read the announcement its separate accounts and reporting, my reference to JQ is in regards to its accounts being separate to QF, not the individual companies that make up JQ aka QFlink:

 

[moa999]

Current reporting for Qantas Airways Limited is: Qantas, Jetstar, Frequent Flyer, Freight (I think thats it)

This will become: Qantas Int, Qantas Dom, Jetstar, Frequent Flyer, Freight
- I read the announcement as all still reported as a consolidated entity under Qantas Airways Limited, just the financial results as a separate "segment"
- There will still be plenty of shared services, shared fleet (eg tag flights) and intersegment transfers

I believe the accounting standards (Im sure someone around here will correct me) require you to define a segment based on management reporting and setup, so by virtue of the management change this causes the reporting change.

 

[markis10]

Current reporting for Qantas Airways Limited is: Qantas, Jetstar, Frequent Flyer, Freight (I think thats it)

This will become: Qantas Int, Qantas Dom, Jetstar, Frequent Flyer, Freight
- I read the announcement as all still reported as a consolidated entity under Qantas Airways Limited, just the financial results as a separate "segment"
- There will still be plenty of shared services, shared fleet (eg tag flights) and intersegment transfers

I believe the accounting standards (Im sure someone around here will correct me) require you to define a segment based on management reporting and setup, so by virtue of the management change this causes the reporting change.

I am sure there will be some interesting intra company transfers as always, however Revenue (external and intrasegment), EBITDAR etc will be split and clearly visible. BTW you missed the corporate segment which includes Qantas IT, flight training etc.

 

[Oneworldplus2]

As a wise investor once said:
Q. How do you get a small fortune in the airline industry?
A. Start with a large fortune.

I thought that was one of Richard Bransons famous quotes?

If you want to be a Millionaire, start with a billion dollars and launch a new airline.

 

[bossreggie]

Well....

I remember back in 2003..... I sold 4,000,000 shares at $3.98 per share. (Still retained some)

I think at $1.16, I'm pretty happy to buy a further 10,000,000 and hold on to them.

I don't require a dividend and if all turns bad....... I will get a bus pass!!

Boss

 

[Noob]

I think at $1.16, I'm pretty happy to buy a further 10,000,000 and hold on to them.

Long term I think that's a much better option than fixed term deposits with interest rates ATM! But to be honest, I think there are better places to put money than airlines.

Most shares at the moment are good buys, but not many people have the cash on hand or the confidence.

 

[markis10]

Imagine if QF brought in Shareholder entitlements, like double SCs, 10% rebate etc etc, and made it applicable on QF mainline only

 

[SeatBackForward]

Imagine if QF brought in Shareholder entitlements, like double SCs, 10% rebate etc etc, and made it applicable on QF mainline only

No value add to QF. Buying shares on the market doesn't send a cent to Qantas.

 

[markis10]

No value add to QF. Buying shares on the market doesn't send a cent to Qantas.

Not true, driving shareholder value will increase demand for shares making them more value for future equity raising etc, also helps to dilute the ownership base and therefore control! We have had enough short term outlook stuff when it comes to QF! How many QF shareholders fly other airlines.....and your still think its not adding value to QF?

 

[SeatBackForward]

Share price reflects what the market believes the company is worth divided by the number of shares on offer. Qantas has close to 2.3billion shares on offer, even BossReggies numbers don't register as a blip on the radar. You would need FF to purchase SIGNIFICANT amounts of shares to have an effect on the shareprice, then in turn these flyers would need to do the BIS miles to give $ back to the airlines - on top of what they're already spending.

My actual point was that the only way QF get money from shares is when they issue even more shares onto the market.