QF - Little demand for Y+ into Asia

[TomVexille]

If someone else was paying I would still go for QF 747 or A380 economy with the hope of an upgrade to business or premium economy.

By the way I have paid for premium economy on QF and BA when I could see value. I have also tried VS premium economy.

Good for you. Personally I'd go CX and know that the seat will be better than Y, and the tiny chance of an upgrade to J.

 

[eastwest101]

Well the AUD224.00 for PE was a 40% increase over the Y price of AUD552.00 (travel was CAN-HKG-MEL).

And according to my maths a CX Y+ seat has a footprint on the aircraft floor that is 125% of a regular CX Y seat so PE fares of ranging up to say 130-150% of regular Y fares are acceptable to most CX customers. (based on typical CX A330). And, just for comparison, I also worked out that VA B777 Y+ seat footprint on aircraft floor is 125% size of a regular Y seat on VA.


For QF assuming A380 I found that a Y+ seat has a footprint on the aircraft floor that is 143% of a typical QF Y standard seat, so in QF's case you would expect to see Y+ fares being 140-160% of regular Y fares, maybe up to 170% at a stretch if you believe the on-board Y+ product is non-stop caviar and champagne.

And then just a quick glance at the official QF CX and VA site sale fares where its possible to compare Y and Y+ fares we see:

QF SYD-HGK return: Y = $808 vs Y+ = $1399 (so Y+ seat coming in at 173% of a regular Y seat)
CX SYD-HKG return: Y = $958 vs Y+ = $1905 (so Y+ seat coming in at 198% of a regular Y seat)

QF SYD-LAX return: Y = $1299 vs Y+ = $2999 (so Y+ seat coming in at 230% of a regular Y seat)
VA SYD-LAX return: Y = $1305 vs Y+ = $3126 (so Y+ seat coming in at 239% of a regular Y seat)


First of all - this tells us about different markets, obviously for longer flights then Y+ becomes more attractive for passengers and so probably results in airlines able to ask for more $$$ for premium economy seats. But it also hints that either QF are not filling their Y+ seats at those prices, or alternatively, if they are, then Y+ must be more profitable than flying bog standard Y seats, even if they have a competitor with Australian costs (like VA) or a competitor with lower costs (eg CX), and also very interesting to note that CX can command such a price premium for their SYD-HKG services.

In short - if QF predicts that there is little demand for premium economy, then given QF's track record, I can confidently predict all of QF's competitors will eventually install Y+ seating and proceed to hand QF their own a%$e to them.

 

[Austman]

And according to my maths a CX Y+ seat has a footprint on the aircraft floor that is 125% of a regular CX Y seat so PE fares of ranging up to say 130-150% of regular Y fares are acceptable to most CX customers. (based on typical CX A330).

Can we compare maths?

CX can charge a lot more than 40% for PE (often around 100% more), it depends on the market and the route. But from my rough calculations, based only on PE seat size and space (the biggest benefit IMO):

The A330 PE cabin has 28 seats being 4 rows of 7 seats at 38" pitch = 152" total pitch
That total pitch could fit 4.75 rows of 32" Y or 38 Y seats
At a 40% price premium, 28 PE seats earns the same as 39.2 Y seats

So I think 40% extra for PE would be the minimum CX would want. On my flight there were some OP-UPs, so CX still oversells Y. A PE A330 cabin means they have 10 less passengers carried in the PE + Y cabins. So, even if the PE cabin was 100% sold as Y, it might not be a huge loss and if 100% sold as PE it could be a sizable gain.

 

[Anna]

I wonder if a factor in the decision is that EK does not have Y+.

 

[moa999]

I doubt it for Asia....

Reality is QF has experience in what sells on these routes, and I suspect if they thought it would make them more money than not having it, it would be installed.... Afterall its not like QF management are desparate to improve earnings.

 

[JohnK]

Good for you. Personally I'd go CX and know that the seat will be better than Y, and the tiny chance of an upgrade to J.

That's OK too. We all have different preferences.

There are certain airlines I would never travel in economy and other airlines I wouldn't travel in any cabin.

CX is OK but their airfares are poor except for rare super duper sales. Premium economy is not worth double the price of economy. Maybe 10% more. At a stretch 20% more but anything more and it is totally overpriced.

But I'm stupidly after QFF points and status so QF economy at ~AUD750 return BNE-SYD-BKK-CNX is unbeatable. The only downside is the A330 but I can live with that for that price.

 

[Himeno]

Afterall its not like QF management are desparate to improve earnings.

QF management is far more concerned about themselves then the airline itself or their customers.

 

[moa999]

Safest way to protect your job is increase profits, or in QFs case make a profit. At the moment I would say management and shareholders are very aligned in objectives

 

[Jeffrey O'Neill]

I think the issue is that PE has always been overpriced. When it's usually 3K+ to USA it's a bit rich. When VA had it for 2K it was a no brainer to pay the extra fro the comfort.

At least VA and Delta have it for around the 2.6K mark to LAX which is not cheap but certainly affordable. QF are charging close to 4K for the same trip. No wonder they find people aren't interested.

Get the pricing right and I'd say PE would be a real winner with passengers and the airlines.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

I think the issue is that PE has always been overpriced. When it's usually 3K+ to USA it's a bit rich. When VA had it for 2K it was a no brainer to pay the extra fro the comfort.

At least VA and Delta have it for around the 2.6K mark to LAX which is not cheap but certainly affordable. QF are charging close to 4K for the same trip. No wonder they find people aren't interested.

Get the pricing right and I'd say PE would be a real winner with passengers and the airlines.

QF Y+ is a much better product than DL and VA too

 

[hossein_au]

QF Y+ is a much better product than DL and VA too

It could probably be just me, but I've flown both Y+ and J on both VA and QF (both to and from LAX), and to me the corresponding products are very similar (the hard products are almost identical (to me), and each soft product has pros and cons versus the competition). Just my $0.02.

 

[Aussie_flyer]

It could probably be just me, but I've flown both Y+ and J on both VA and QF (both to and from LAX), and to me the corresponding products are very similar (the hard products are almost identical (to me), and each soft product has pros and cons versus the competition). Just my $0.02.

Yes va is comparable but dl sure isnt.

 

[downgraded]

A few observations:
- It seems odd to state there isn't demand when the routes and classes aren't on offer to be able to judge demand.
- CX PE to Asia has often seemed very under occupied even at almost rational price points on the fist full of flights observed
- recent price checks for MEL-LHR saw QF asking nearly AUD6500 for PE - common sense says fly J with someone else (a slight deviation from the Asia theme but illustrative of the challenge none the less). Same flights now on offer for 3800 are a somewhat different proposition.

If price gouging removes demand then everyone loses, if PE is genuinely not economically viable then pax lose, but I am certainly willing to pay a rational sum for something better than the spiral to the bottom that economy has become.

 

[Himeno]

If price gouging removes demand then everyone loses, if PE is genuinely not economically viable then pax lose, but I am certainly willing to pay a rational sum for something better than the spiral to the bottom that economy has become.

If only QF management was capable of understanding that.

 

[sydstar]

I mentioned it in the QF 330 thread, but it is interesting that NZ are installing Y+ in their 789s which are going to be running similar routes to the QF 330s (Asia, HNL and PER).

Effectively NZ thinks there is a market for it, QF doesn't. On recent form, I know which horse I'd be backing....

 

[dajop]

It's very easy to skew the math to support any argument. I've seen BA selling Y fares more than Y+ between SYD and SIN. In fact earlier this year a grabbed Y+ SIN-SYD, Y SYD-SIN for about $150 less than they wanted to charge if I'd also taken Y on the same SIN-SYD flight (and $250 less than what QF were charging for an entire economy itinerary). Granted it was last minute, but it seems that perhaps BA don't need to make a profit on Y+ between SIN & SYD as long as enough are paying a significant premium between SYD & LHR, and thefore seem to discount it to fill it on the shorter part of the overall route (have never seen equivalent discounts on the longer SIN/LHR sector).

Bottom line, after many flights in economy between MEL & SIN, I just don't see the value in paying more than perhaps $150 return or so to fly Y+ on these relatively short 6.5-7.5 hr flights. I am also betting, there are many many other passengers with the same view.

 

[JohnK]

Bottom line, after many flights in economy between MEL & SIN, I just don't see the value in paying more than perhaps $150 return or so to fly Y+ on these relatively short 6.5-7.5 hr flights. I am also betting, there are many many other passengers with the same view.

I think that is a key point.

The current QF special had a SYD-HKG economy return for ~$808 return and premium economy return for ~$1399. I think a lot of people woud have trouble spending more on premium economy. I have seen premium economy priced for as high as ~$2000 which is totally ridiculous.

 

[cambriamarsh]

Duh Qantas, if there's very little supply, it follows there's very little demand.

It's usually the other way around.
Cheers