Qf 93 mel-lax 12/9/10 i am informed is 14 oversold in y - good op up one thinks

[Sprucegoose]

Leave it to the forum to call it, as they invariable get it right!!!

Cheers

SPRUCE

 

[Sprucegoose]

I believe the MEL-LAX route is one that QF oversells on more than most.

 

[milehighclub]

I don't know where you got told 14 oversold - but I see 37 spare.

 

[jb747]

Plenty of seats available in Y.

 

[straitman]

Spruce,

Currently showing:
F6 A6 J9 C9 D3 I0 W0 R0 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K4 M4 L0 G0 E0

 

[jb747]

Must admit I don't know what all the categories you list are, but, right now, there are seats in economy (30), business (also 30), and first. None in PE.

 

[serfty]

Must admit I don't know what all the categories you list are, but, right now, there are seats in economy (30), business (also 30), and first. None in PE.

PE are represented by the classes W, R & T and all being zero indicates the sell out.

 

[Sprucegoose]

Spruce,

Currently showing:
F6 A6 J9 C9 D3 I0 W0 R0 T0 Y9 B9 H9 K4 M4 L0 G0 E0

Thanks Bill, got this info from the premium desk. Time will tell!!!

 

[Standby]

Irrespective if oversold,I'm sure they know how many are registered for upgrades and will overbook the Y cabin against that knowing the how much space in J wont sell from the forecasts they have .End result flight goes out full so I wouldnt hold my breath,the magic of yield management strikes again

 

[Sprucegoose]

Irrespective if oversold,I'm sure they know how many are registered for upgrades and will overbook the Y cabin against that knowing the how much space in J wont sell from the forecasts they have .End result flight goes out full so I wouldnt hold my breath,the magic of yield management strikes again

Expanding on Standby's comments, and just looking at total sales versus total seats available and lets say they are oversold at 14Y at present, and they have determined the optiminal return model says lets oversell by 60 on this route, at this time, then you would be able to see more seats for sale, which may account for say 37 still for sale?

 

[taswegian77]

I have that flight as availability of 28 in Y, 0 in Y+, 24 in J and 6 in F so far from oversold.

 

[Sprucegoose]

I have that flight as availability of 28 in Y, 0 in Y+, 24 in J and 6 in F so far from oversold.

go back and read my comment!!

 

[oz_mark]

Expanding on Standby's comments, and just looking at total sales versus total seats available and lets say they are oversold at 14Y at present, and they have determined the optiminal return model says lets oversell by 60 on this route, at this time, then you would be able to see more seats for sale, which may account for say 37 still for sale?

Yes, and I understand that different people in QF will see this differently - some will see a full plane (looking at loads) and some will see a not full plane (looking at seats for sale). The question is - how do you know who sees which view?

 

[serfty]

I don't know where you got told 14 oversold - but I see 37 spare.

Must admit I don't know what all the categories you list are, but, right now, there are seats in economy (30), business (also 30), and first. None in PE.

... The question is - how do you know who sees which view?

Note that both jb747 and milehighclub work inflight for the airline and have accurate access to that information. i.e. Current total Number of unsold seats in WHY.

On that basis, it is currently not a "good Op-up" situation at all.

Current E/F loadings are F6 A6 J9 C8 D0 I0 W0 R0 T0 Y9 B9 H8 K4 M4 L0 G0 E0 . With this Qantas are telling the world they are willing to sell up to 6 seats in First Class, 9 Seats each in Business and Economy & none in premium Economy.

For an Op-up to become a possibility, K and M would need to drop to 0 and Y/B/H all reduce significantly.

 

[oz_mark]

Note that both jb747 and milehighclub work inflight for the airline and have accurate access to that information. i.e. Current total Number of unsold in WHY.

The point the sprucegoose was making, was whether 'unsold' means how many they are prepared to sell, versus how many empty seats there are. The two are not the same.

 

[serfty]

I believe they are indicating the number of empty seats (not the number of unallocated seats).

i.e. if a flight had 250 WHY seats available for sale and 220 WHY seats have been booked then the quoted figure would be 30.

It is possible (even likely) Qantas are willing to sell more than that figure.

 

[ozbeachbabe]

It is possible (even likely) Qantas are willing to sell more than that figure.

Sometimes the airline does make adjustments whereby they may show 20 available seats to sell in Y even when the Y cabin is already full but there are 20 seats in J to cover the oversale ie there will be the facility to do 20 odd op ups or points upgrades.

The airline knows it's not going to sell 20 J seats at the last minute but it is conceivable that it could sell 20 Y seats. So reservations (which I imagine includes the Premium Desk) to the best of their knowledge may tell you there are 20 available Y class seats & not realise that the flight is oversold in Y.

The reality is eg on a 767 config 30/214 they may have sold 10/234 seats which still adds up to a total pax count of 244 hence the need to flow forward 20 pax from Y to J.

If res don't have access to the checkin area they could still find out the airline configuration then work out how many seats have been sold in a particular cabin, do the sums & work out if they do infact have an oversale in Y.

 

[Sprucegoose]

The point the sprucegoose was making, was whether 'unsold' means how many they are prepared to sell, versus how many empty seats there are. The two are not the same.

Correct Oz_mark. They may wish to target an oversold position given history of no shows, season, other irregular factors, in all an algorithic position can be established.

so Aircraft 250, sell 300, sold 260, 40 unsold scenario. 100% is not always the answer.

cheers

SPRUCE

 

[serfty]

I guess you ignored this bit:

... It is possible (even likely) Qantas are willing to sell more than that figure.

I am here to say that the loading so far shown in my experience are not indicative of an op-up.

Unless the loadings in the days before the flight start showing something like Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 ... or Y2 B1 H1 K1 M1 L1 ... or similar, then an op-up is unlikely.

 

[Sprucegoose]

I guess you ignored this bit:I am here to say that the loading so far shown in my experience are not indicative of an op-up.

Unless the loadings in the days before the flight start showing something like Y0 B0 H0 K0 M0 L0 ... or Y2 B1 H1 K1 M1 L1 ... or similar, then an op-up is unlikely.

Serfty your point was not lost on me, you are never ignored!!

I would add though, and I believe it is practice that QF do deliberately oversell on certain flights, however while you can take a position on how many people are expected to turn up, it may well turn out to be the case that many more do, increasing your chances once again.

It is definately an art and not a science.

cheers
SPRUCE