Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[elanshin]

Just curious, we know MEL is left off the slides but has anyone looked into if MEL-LHR is even possible anymore without further payload restrictions?

Iirc the rumours were that SYD-LHR is already extremely touch and go (and that there might be payload restrictions at times).

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Yeh, OK you've got me. Yes, 'm being somewhat selective, I could only find 14 AA arrivals before 9am , and another 5 between 9 and 10., and probably a few more AS flights to boot. And not every ticket is issued with AA connectors. I've travelled a plenty on mix and match interlines bookings such as SQ/AA, QF/UA .

Exactly… QF sells connections on United as you point out. UA has plenty flight arriving early in the morning into LAX, SFO etc, and other options for connecting with evening flights.

Just curious, we know MEL is left off the slides but has anyone looked into if MEL-LHR is even possible anymore without further payload restrictions?

Iirc the rumours were that SYD-LHR is already extremely touch and go (and that there might be payload restrictions at times).

I mean we’re only talking three hours longer in the air than current 787 non stops. If PS can’t do that without restriction, what was the whole point?

 

[RooFlyer]

From the configuration and pricing of PER-LHR QF are already extracting a 20% improvement in margin and the recent statement from the CEO Intimated she wanted to match that, not add an additional 20% on top of that.

So, a 20% margin on top of current QF Syd-Sin-LHR pricing? Genuine question - We've heard 'no premium' before in this thread, and then '20%' but I'm unsure of what people mean by 20% margin.

 

[SYD]

So, a 20% margin on top of current QF Syd-Sin-LHR pricing? Genuine question - We've heard 'no premium' before in this thread, and then '20%' but I'm unsure of what people mean by 20% margin.

Pretty consistent comments suggesting a “premium” and the latest from QF was circa 20% on say QF1/2. Not sure re QF3/4 which already has a slight premium over NYC via DFW. Guess we’ll see in due course.

 

[AuSammy]

Pretty consistent comments suggesting a “premium” and the latest from QF was circa 20% on say QF1/2. Not sure re QF3/4 which already has a slight premium over NYC via DFW. Guess we’ll see in due course.

They expect a 20% increase in profitability not 20% increase in fares. There was a video on AFF somewhere recently where it was explained. It does not mean a 20% rise in prices at all. Reduced seats for same demand mean higher occupancy. More F and J means more revenue per seat km. They will sell a lot of discount Y for similar to current pricing but bump up the penalty for last minute bookings/ higher fare buckets. Several tweaks that improve profitability but not just a blanket increase in prices.

The planes are also less fuel hungry than the A380s and other older frames.

They save on airport and handling taxes on transits. They use a lot of fuel taking off and landing.

They are already making 20% additional margin on the PER flights but the prices are pretty similar.

 

[RooFlyer]

They expect a 20% increase in profitability not 20% increase in fares. There was a video on AFF somewhere recently where it was explained. It does not mean a 20% rise in prices at all. Reduced seats for same demand mean higher occupancy. More F and J means more revenue per seat km. They will sell a lot of discount Y for similar to current pricing but bump up the penalty for last minute bookings/ higher fare buckets. Several tweaks that improve profitability but not just a blanket increase in prices.

Well, we shall see. I don't see why this much-trumpeted, unique service, avoiding all the pitfalls you've mentioned, attracting corporate spend, shouldn't have a decent premium on it, over current SYD-SIN-LHR.

 

[SYD]

They expect a 20% increase in profitability not 20% increase in fares. There was a video on AFF somewhere recently where it was explained. It does not mean a 20% rise in prices at all. Reduced seats for same demand mean higher occupancy. More F and J means more revenue per seat km. They will sell a lot of discount Y for similar to current pricing but bump up the penalty for last minute bookings/ higher fare buckets. Several tweaks that improve profitability but not just a blanket increase in prices.

The planes are also less fuel hungry than the A380s and other older frames.

They save on airport and handling taxes on transits. They use a lot of fuel taking off and landing.

They are already making 20% additional margin on the PER flights but the prices are pretty similar.

Do you have a reference / source for that? 20% increase in profit is “Magic pudding” territory if no price increase.

There was a link posted - which I can’t find now - but it was QF reiterating that there’d be a ~20% premium on price BUT that they were already applying that to PER-LHR and SYD-AKL-JFK.

 

[esseeeayeenn]

Interestingly 1A is my most frequent seat.

 

[RooFlyer]

They expect a 20% increase in profitability not 20% increase in fares. There was a video on AFF somewhere recently where it was explained. It does not mean a 20% rise in prices at all. Reduced seats for same demand mean higher occupancy. More F and J means more revenue per seat km. They will sell a lot of discount Y for similar to current pricing but bump up the penalty for last minute bookings/ higher fare buckets. Several tweaks that improve profitability but not just a blanket increase in prices.

The planes are also less fuel hungry than the A380s and other older frames.

They save on airport and handling taxes on transits. They use a lot of fuel taking off and landing.

They are already making 20% additional margin on the PER flights but the prices are pretty similar.

I'd only point out that notwithstanding its more fuel efficient and will save on transit costs, that its only carrying 230-odd pax, Vs the 350-odd capacity of an A350-1000. And re profit, there is the capital cost/depreciation of a new, custom built airframe. And the need for a whole, empty 'spare', given the timings/curfews at SYD and LHR. Swings and roundabouts, but I'm sure it'll be much on the plus side for the company, overall.

I have no idea on impact on profit (I guess this means profit/pax on this route Vs SYD-SIN-LHR), but as I said, I wouldn't begrudge, and would expect, a decent fare premium over SYD-SIN-LHR.

When they begin - toppish fares taking advantage of the hype and eagerness of people to try, or low-ish fares to give it a 'flying' start?

 

[Feech La Manna]

Those old enough will remember QF put a "premium" on the original non stop 747-400 flights to the US back in the early 1990s. They also heavily restricted most fare buckets in F/J on the A380 originally, only the R and J fare buckets were generally available.

Neither of these lasted too long before QF went back to "normal" revenue management.

The thing that gets me about Sunrise is business/corporate passengers wont actually save that much time - they still wont get a full working day in Sydney before leaving for London. And on the return they'll still lose two working days.

Unlike QF9 from Perth, where its a real time saver compared to the previous Qantas options to SIN and then LHR - the flight to SIN departed lunchtime so you lost most of the day, unlike QF9 which departs in the evening. I can see that being worth a nice premium along with the reduced flight time, not so sure if Sunrise has as much value given the timings.

 

[jrfsp]

Those old enough will remember QF put a "premium" on the original non stop 747-400 flights to the US back in the early 1990s. They also heavily restricted most fare buckets in F/J on the A380 originally, only the R and J fare buckets were generally available.

Neither of these lasted too long before QF went back to "normal" revenue management.

The thing that gets me about Sunrise is business/corporate passengers wont actually save that much time - they still wont get a full working day in Sydney before leaving for London. And on the return they'll still lose two working days.

Unlike QF9 from Perth, where its a real time saver compared to the previous Qantas options to SIN and then LHR - the flight to SIN departed lunchtime so you lost most of the day, unlike QF9 which departs in the evening. I can see that being worth a nice premium along with the reduced flight time, not so sure if Sunrise has as much value given the timings.

We don’t know the timings yet but I’d assume for a 5am arrival into LHR, the SYD dept would be around 5pm, around a 4 hour saving on QF1.

 

[AuSammy]

Do you have a reference / source for that? 20% increase in profit is “Magic pudding” territory if no price increase.

There was a link posted - which I can’t find now - but it was QF reiterating that there’d be a ~20% premium on price BUT that they were already applying that to PER-LHR and SYD-AKL-JFK.

I can’t remember where I watched it right now, maybe it will come back to me but it went into how most important factor for the company was a term called RASK and in quite some detail how they can never make decent margins with a transit through a port dominated by another carrier like SIN, DOH, DXB HKG the only hope for international division was a PS strategy but it was a big risk.

 

[justinbrett]

And re profit, there is the capital cost/depreciation of a new, custom built airframe.

If you're implying this cost QF significantly more than a standard A350-1000, that's not correct. All aircraft are custom in some respect, but in the sense that QF contributed financially to the development of the type - that's not the case, it's covered by Airbus. It's an official type, and any customer can now order it (there was some talk of TK buying them).

As a direct equivalent, QF also didn't pay to develop the 747-400ER, for which they were the launch and sole customer.