Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[SYD]

Well, it is (or rather, it maybe) for now. It is the only Australia to Europe non-stop flight for the moment, even if connecting via PER was required.

People predict that landscape will shift once Project Sunrise comes into service, but I think it won't disappear quickly since the idea of servicing PER might give good reason to keep it, amongst other factors.

One factor being a whole new (long overdue) QF Terminal at PER coming. Which should improve the experience - whether starting/stopping in PER or connecting.

‘City at airport’ set to revolutionise Perth

Perth Airport is preparing for take-off with a multi-billion dollar transformation set to create an entire city around the State’s busiest gateway.

www.perthnow.com.au

 

[Doddler]

One factor being a whole new (long overdue) QF Terminal at PER coming. Which should improve the experience - whether starting/stopping in PER or connecting.

‘City at airport’ set to revolutionise Perth

Perth Airport is preparing for take-off with a multi-billion dollar transformation set to create an entire city around the State’s busiest gateway.

www.perthnow.com.au

Still 6 years away, if it completes on time. It’ll be long overdue.

 

[levelnine]

A lot of the times the QF1/2 is cheaper between Singapore and London than SQ and also BA so I suspect there will still be a role for Qantas on that route in picking up passengers. Question is will it still pack out the A380 if it starts in Sydney as obviously it has a lot more international appeal than Melbourne.

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

 

[Doddler]

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

True. With Sunrise flights from Sydney and Melbourne to LHR, the premium seat capacity is about 50% more than the daily A380 flying from SIN to LHR. Can Qantas capture sufficient leftover capacity in Australia, plus more local Asian markets, to fill the premium cabins in A380 flights from Singapore to London?

BA might. not be too pleased with the prospect of Qantas stealing some of its premium cabin business between those two financial centres.

There might also be some good award availability on QF1 once Sunrise flights start

 

[dajop]

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

 

[Doddler]

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

Good points about timing! For premiums, who are able to sleep properly on the way, a morning arrival is better - they can get straight down to business. But it's complicated, given limited LHR slots, and effective curfews at both ends. This analysis explains it all very clearly:

Qantas's Project Sunrise: Heathrow slots & Sydney curfew

Project Sunrise has been in the news again with Qantas updating us on their plans to start non-stop flights from Sydney to London and New York.

www.analyticflying.com

I must admit, I hadn't really considered these things up until now. Despite claims by Qantas that direct flights between Melbourne and London will be happening, how will that be possible? They'll need to purchase extra LHR slots, which seems challenging to say the least.

 

[justinbrett]

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

It doesn’t have to be the same aircraft. QF (insert new BNE-LHR flight number) could be 787 from BNE and meet up with an A380 from SYD, and then use the A380 for the SIN-LHR leg. Similar to how JFK was served towards the end of the LAX flights.

Also remember all of the European codeshares QF has into other parts of Europe, it’s not all about LHR.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

A 1500 departure would get in at 2000, it’s not a massive change and the extra night at home is just a further sell for the benefits of the flight.

We were very used to LAX arrivals being around 6am and now QF11 and QF15 are both in the afternoon. People adapt.

 

[dajop]

It doesn’t have to be the same aircraft. QF (insert new BNE-LHR flight number) could be 787 from BNE and meet up with an A380 from SYD, and then use the A380 for the SIN-LHR leg. Similar to how JFK was served towards the end of the LAX flights.

It could also be the other way around, it has been argued that the A380 is too big for the market following sunrise, so you could turn the A380 around in SIN and deploy it elsewhere, such that the A380 from SYD meets up with a 787 from BNE but the SYD flight number continues on to LHR (or the flight number follows the 787 all the way, or the flight number could originate in MEL).

 

[dajop]

A 1500 departure would get in at 2000, it’s not a massive change and the extra night at home is just a further sell for the benefits of the flight.

We were very used to LAX arrivals being around 6am and now QF11 and QF15 are both in the afternoon. People adapt.

But it's also about choice, what drives traffic is both product and frequency. EK, SQ, QR all have multiple options out of LHR, having a 2-3 options could aid QF in the market. For some a 3pm departure equate to leaving for the airport at midday, so more or less writing off the day, whilst 8pm departure gives you at least until 5pm. Having options always helps. (Although of course trans-SW Pacific ex-US no choice exists on any of the carriers in terms of timing, so maybe there goes that argument... )

 

[justinbrett]

But it's also about choice, what drives traffic is both product and frequency. EK, SQ, QR all have multiple options out of LHR, having a 2-3 options could aid QF in the market. For some a 3pm departure equate to leaving for the airport at midday, so more or less writing off the day, whilst 8pm departure gives you at least until 5pm. Having options always helps. (Although of course trans-SW Pacific ex-US no choice exists on any of the carriers in terms of timing, so maybe there goes that argument... )

If only QF had more than two slot pairs in LHR . Maybe they could put on another flight with a stop in SE Asia?

 

[elanshin]

I must admit, I hadn't really considered these things up until now. Despite claims by Qantas that direct flights between Melbourne and London will be happening, how will that be possible? They'll need to purchase extra LHR slots, which seems challenging to say the least.

QF already has them they're on loan to BA at the moment but QF has issued intent to end the lease and take them back.

They have a total of 4 slots, 2 being used right now for QF1/2 and QF9/10. Assuming these 2 services remain, there's room for both sunrise flights.

 

[Doddler]

QF already has them they're on loan to BA at the moment but QF has issued intent to end the lease and take them back.

They have a total of 4 slots, 2 being used right now for QF1/2 and QF9/10. Assuming these 2 services remain, there's room for both sunrise flights.

The analysis that I linked to above goes into all of this in detail.
There it is explained why, for example, one of the midday takeoff slots currently used for QF10 is likely to be used for the new Sunrise flight to Sydney, with QF10 switching to an evening departure. That's due to timing and curfews at both airports.

 

[Doddler]

The analysis that I linked to above goes into all of this in detail.
There it is explained why, for example, one of the midday takeoff slots currently used for QF10 is likely to be used for the new Sunrise flight to Sydney, with QF10 switching to an evening departure. That's due to timing and curfews at both airports.

Q: Under Singapore and UK air regulations, could Qantas operate an A380 just on the SIN/LHR sector, connecting with smaller aircraft to/from Australian airports? Or do the rules require the aircraft itself to connect all the way to/from Australia?

 

[elanshin]

Q: Under Singapore and UK air regulations, could Qantas operate an A380 just on the SIN/LHR sector, connecting with smaller aircraft to/from Australian airports? Or do the rules require the aircraft itself to connect all the way to/from Australia?

They could do that, but it's not feasible in terms of operational efficiency. You'd be stranding those 380s just shuttling betwen SIN - LHR neither of which are QF 380 maintenance bases. Anything happens you'd then have to take a 380 out of rotation elsewhere. The current LHR-SIN-SYD-LAX is the main a380 stable rotation that QF utilises right now.

Then you'd have to consider how the pilots and crews get to SIN/LHR. Its just overall more efficient to have one leg be an a380. I also highly doubt that SYD -SIN on its own can't support an a380 (without the additional LHR). Theres days with QF291, QF81 and QF1 all going SYD-SIN and there is a planned schedule with double a380 on the same day as well.

 

[justinbrett]

Even with both SYD and MEL A350 flights, there will be 2 fewer F seats and 61 fewer Y seats vs an A380. There will only be an extra 36 more J seats.

I’m fairly certain QF intends to increase its market share on the route and thinks it can, whether that’s people from BNE, NZ, DRW or those in SYD/MEL preferring one stop.

As for SIN-LHR itself, BA has to maintain two daily flights (one of which going to SYD) and probably will have more trouble than QF who only has to sell a single flight.

 

[elanshin]

The analysis that I linked to above goes into all of this in detail.
There it is explained why, for example, one of the midday takeoff slots currently used for QF10 is likely to be used for the new Sunrise flight to Sydney, with QF10 switching to an evening departure. That's due to timing and curfews at both airports.

There are scenarios which are not considered as well on the analysis. Because MEL doesn't have any slot restrictions they can blast off whenever they want if the 4th slot is to be MEL-LHR and fit whatever schedule is most suitable.

QF also has many 5-6am SYD arrival slots (which I believe QF2 currently uses one of). And adds a bit more flexibility. They could also park the 380 at SIN instead of LHR if it suits their timing or rejig things to do MEL - SIN - LHR rotation (Actually now that I think about it, they might do that and put the new a350-900 on SYD).

I'll just say that when there's an interesting puzzle problem with slot timing worth a lot of money, you can bet the airlines will put a fair amount of work into coming up with a novel solution and then work other parts of the network around it.

 

[Doddler]

There are scenarios which are not considered as well on the analysis. Because MEL doesn't have any slot restrictions they can blast off whenever they want if the 4th slot is to be MEL-LHR and fit whatever schedule is most suitable.

QF also has many 5-6am SYD arrival slots (which I believe QF2 currently uses one of). And adds a bit more flexibility. They could also park the 380 at SIN instead of LHR if it suits their timing or rejig things to do MEL - SIN - LHR rotation (Actually now that I think about it, they might do that and put the new a350-900 on SYD).

I'll just say that when there's an interesting puzzle problem with slot timing worth a lot of money, you can bet the airlines will put a fair amount of work into coming up with a novel solution and then work other parts of the network around it.

The thing is, the one-stop works quite well with their existing LHR evening takeoff slots but a direct flight doesn't because of the Sydney curfew. Hence the need to swap a slot with QF10. A direct flight to Melbourne wouldn't be constrained in the same way. So feasibly they could retain one evening slot for an A380 to Sydney, one for a Sunrise flight to Melbourne, one for QF10 to Perth, and use their midday slot for the Sunrise flight to Sydney.
Maybe having A350ULRs arriving/departing LHR at different times would help with ground turnarounds as they could be swapped (e.g. SYD-LHR-MEL and MEL-LHR-SYD), but that's too complicated for my brain!

 

[justinbrett]

Maybe having A350ULRs arriving/departing LHR at different times would help with ground turnarounds as they could be swapped (e.g. SYD-LHR-MEL and MEL-LHR-SYD), but that's too complicated for my brain!

Have a look at the original proposal for QF managing slots at HND, 3 way juggling between all three routes.

 

[dajop]

Maybe having A350ULRs arriving/departing LHR at different times would help with ground turnarounds as they could be swapped (e.g. SYD-LHR-MEL and MEL-LHR-SYD), but that's too complicated for my brain!

And if you want further complication, throw in plane rotations with the JFK service, although I think most of us suspect the schedule for JFK will be similar to QF3/4, except leaving SYD later and arriving back earlier.

 

[torks]

QF also has many 5-6am SYD arrival slots (which I believe QF2 currently uses one of). And adds a bit more flexibility. They could also park the 380 at SIN instead of LHR if it suits their timing or rejig things to do MEL - SIN - LHR rotation (Actually now that I think about it, they might do that and put the new a350-900 on SYD).

I believe that once Western Sydney airport opens the 5am-6am slots at Sydney will be cancelled as the curfew will become a hard 6am curfew with no landings before then. On the basis that WSI will be 24 hours and if you want to land before 6am you can do it there.