Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[SYD]

Well, it is (or rather, it maybe) for now. It is the only Australia to Europe non-stop flight for the moment, even if connecting via PER was required.

People predict that landscape will shift once Project Sunrise comes into service, but I think it won't disappear quickly since the idea of servicing PER might give good reason to keep it, amongst other factors.

One factor being a whole new (long overdue) QF Terminal at PER coming. Which should improve the experience - whether starting/stopping in PER or connecting.

‘City at airport’ set to revolutionise Perth

Perth Airport is preparing for take-off with a multi-billion dollar transformation set to create an entire city around the State’s busiest gateway.

www.perthnow.com.au

 

[Doddler]

One factor being a whole new (long overdue) QF Terminal at PER coming. Which should improve the experience - whether starting/stopping in PER or connecting.

‘City at airport’ set to revolutionise Perth

Perth Airport is preparing for take-off with a multi-billion dollar transformation set to create an entire city around the State’s busiest gateway.

www.perthnow.com.au

Still 6 years away, if it completes on time. It’ll be long overdue.

 

[levelnine]

A lot of the times the QF1/2 is cheaper between Singapore and London than SQ and also BA so I suspect there will still be a role for Qantas on that route in picking up passengers. Question is will it still pack out the A380 if it starts in Sydney as obviously it has a lot more international appeal than Melbourne.

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

 

[Doddler]

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

True. With Sunrise flights from Sydney and Melbourne to LHR, the premium seat capacity is about 50% more than the daily A380 flying from SIN to LHR. Can Qantas capture sufficient leftover capacity in Australia, plus more local Asian markets, to fill the premium cabins in A380 flights from Singapore to London?

BA might. not be too pleased with the prospect of Qantas stealing some of its premium cabin business between those two financial centres.

There might also be some good award availability on QF1 once Sunrise flights start

 

[dajop]

And it's going to need to be a whole lot cheaper once the route loses a bunch of passengers to Sunrise, especially given SIN-LHR will be losing the airline's most profitable customers (SYD/MEL-originating corporate & wealthy pax). At a certain point, the route becomes unprofitable either because the plane is flying empty or not flying people paying enough.

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

 

[Doddler]

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

Good points about timing! For premiums, who are able to sleep properly on the way, a morning arrival is better - they can get straight down to business. But it's complicated, given limited LHR slots, and effective curfews at both ends. This analysis explains it all very clearly:

Qantas's Project Sunrise: Heathrow slots & Sydney curfew

Project Sunrise has been in the news again with Qantas updating us on their plans to start non-stop flights from Sydney to London and New York.

www.analyticflying.com

I must admit, I hadn't really considered these things up until now. Despite claims by Qantas that direct flights between Melbourne and London will be happening, how will that be possible? They'll need to purchase extra LHR slots, which seems challenging to say the least.

 

[justinbrett]

They could of course downguage the flight to suit a smaller market and even originate it in BNE.

It doesn’t have to be the same aircraft. QF (insert new BNE-LHR flight number) could be 787 from BNE and meet up with an A380 from SYD, and then use the A380 for the SIN-LHR leg. Similar to how JFK was served towards the end of the LAX flights.

Also remember all of the European codeshares QF has into other parts of Europe, it’s not all about LHR.

Also there’s a matter of timing - the Sunrise flights will be unable to operate out of London in the evening and arrive in Sydney early morning (at least for 6 months of the year). During the Australian winter, a 10pm departure would reach Sydney at around 3am, even the current 8:10pm timing would reach Sydney at around 1am. Of course the latter is possible into MEL, but is it appealing?

Retaining QF2 maintains this “traditional” timing. Although personally I prefer the evening arrivals into Australia, the QF market has it seems for a long time preferred the early morning arrival.

A 1500 departure would get in at 2000, it’s not a massive change and the extra night at home is just a further sell for the benefits of the flight.

We were very used to LAX arrivals being around 6am and now QF11 and QF15 are both in the afternoon. People adapt.

 

[dajop]

It doesn’t have to be the same aircraft. QF (insert new BNE-LHR flight number) could be 787 from BNE and meet up with an A380 from SYD, and then use the A380 for the SIN-LHR leg. Similar to how JFK was served towards the end of the LAX flights.

It could also be the other way around, it has been argued that the A380 is too big for the market following sunrise, so you could turn the A380 around in SIN and deploy it elsewhere, such that the A380 from SYD meets up with a 787 from BNE but the SYD flight number continues on to LHR (or the flight number follows the 787 all the way, or the flight number could originate in MEL).

 

[dajop]

A 1500 departure would get in at 2000, it’s not a massive change and the extra night at home is just a further sell for the benefits of the flight.

We were very used to LAX arrivals being around 6am and now QF11 and QF15 are both in the afternoon. People adapt.

But it's also about choice, what drives traffic is both product and frequency. EK, SQ, QR all have multiple options out of LHR, having a 2-3 options could aid QF in the market. For some a 3pm departure equate to leaving for the airport at midday, so more or less writing off the day, whilst 8pm departure gives you at least until 5pm. Having options always helps. (Although of course trans-SW Pacific ex-US no choice exists on any of the carriers in terms of timing, so maybe there goes that argument... )

 

[justinbrett]

But it's also about choice, what drives traffic is both product and frequency. EK, SQ, QR all have multiple options out of LHR, having a 2-3 options could aid QF in the market. For some a 3pm departure equate to leaving for the airport at midday, so more or less writing off the day, whilst 8pm departure gives you at least until 5pm. Having options always helps. (Although of course trans-SW Pacific ex-US no choice exists on any of the carriers in terms of timing, so maybe there goes that argument... )

If only QF had more than two slot pairs in LHR . Maybe they could put on another flight with a stop in SE Asia?

 

[elanshin]

I must admit, I hadn't really considered these things up until now. Despite claims by Qantas that direct flights between Melbourne and London will be happening, how will that be possible? They'll need to purchase extra LHR slots, which seems challenging to say the least.

QF already has them they're on loan to BA at the moment but QF has issued intent to end the lease and take them back.

They have a total of 4 slots, 2 being used right now for QF1/2 and QF9/10. Assuming these 2 services remain, there's room for both sunrise flights.