Qantas Fleet

[markis10]

As far as I'm aware, EK have publicly stated that they need/are expecting more A380s.

Considering they have close to 50 and 90 more on order....

 

[Robbi]

Considering they have close to 50 and 90 more on order....

Holy snapping' duck**** Batman!

 

[ComeFlyWithMe]

The day QF give up SYD/MEL-LHR is the day QF will sign their own death warrant. End of story. Pack up and go home.

These are pretty profitable routes also, along with SYD-LAX.

As for 388 to SCL and JNB? Highly unlikely. Way too much capacity for relatively unprofitable routes. Likely 789 candidates.

My thoughts are the following possibilities:
- SYD-HKG to daily A380
- new flights to DXB ex-BNE/ADL/PER on QF metal (333/332) to connect with 388 onwards to LHR or EK to rest of EU (still, do they have enough metal for this?)
- QFF sold off
- bringing forward of new 333 J product

Saying that it could be something benign based on past 'enhancements':
- Neil Perry replaced with some other bozo
- ASA's returned to online (we wish)
- New CEO appointed (we wish)

 

[markis10]

The day QF give up SYD/MEL-LHR is the day QF will sign their own death warrant. End of story. Pack up and go home.

These are pretty profitable routes also, along with SYD-LAX.

As for 388 to SCL and JNB? Highly unlikely. Way too much capacity for relatively unprofitable routes. Likely 789 candidates.

I doubt you will see JNB taken by a Dreamliner for the same reasons VA found not make it work with a 777, it's a four burner route that's marginal at best and will likely die or route via PER.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The day QF give up SYD/MEL-LHR is the day QF will sign their own death warrant. End of story. Pack up and go home.

Really? How many European airlines no longer fly to Australia, are they dead?

Long haul is a very complex beast these days. Low fares rules the skies, if you can't make a profit running your own operation then what is the point - it's much easier to make money as a middle man on a codeshare...

 

[Flying Fox]

Considering they have close to 50 and 90 more on order....

Yep, by my thinking it would almost be cheaper for EK to buy EADS and give themselves the A380s!

In addition, Tim Clarke could then design the planes that they always want.

 

[maninblack]

Really? How many European airlines no longer fly to Australia, are they dead?

Long haul is a very complex beast these days. Low fares rules the skies, if you can't make a profit running your own operation then what is the point - it's much easier to make money as a middle man on a codeshare...

Chances are that QFi can never be profitable when in competition with Asian and ME airlines. So if you are Qantas use your great brand name to sell tickets under code share as you suggest and focus on domestic and the small number of routes where you can make money and stop trying to show off by flying to LHR.

The North American carriers are all second rate so hit that market hard where you stand a chance of competing and where the brand name is held in high regard and where you will be the sole Oneworld carrier. LAX, YVR, DFW, HNL, maybe SFO and JFK.

 

[anat0l]

Really? How many European airlines no longer fly to Australia, are they dead?

Long haul is a very complex beast these days. Low fares rules the skies, if you can't make a profit running your own operation then what is the point - it's much easier to make money as a middle man on a codeshare...

BA and VS still operate to Australia, though BA cut back one service and VS aren't increasing any time soon. Point taken about the others, though to be fair they killed off Australian services ages ago.

QF cutting LHR might save money (or risk) but would feel like a symbolically a seppuku move, if not for at least the international operation. QF have operated Australia to London for several decades with quite some prestige along the way. They have a lot more pedigree on this route compared to the profitable Americas or the emerging Asia. The socio-political ramifications and the continued physical existence of the incumbent QF CEO may be disastrous if QF stop operating the route.

Frankly if QF can't make at least SYD/LHR work, something is rather wrong.

Services to the Americas are less of a concern purely due to the lack of options and competition, especially given the current business regimes of any competitor who could or is currently feasibly competing on this market.

 

[ComeFlyWithMe]

Really? How many European airlines no longer fly to Australia, are they dead?

Long haul is a very complex beast these days. Low fares rules the skies, if you can't make a profit running your own operation then what is the point - it's much easier to make money as a middle man on a codeshare...

Quite simply, their network would be so small nobody would stay with QF. These routes are still quite profitable (SYD-LHR, maybe not so much MEL). It's the flow on effect. Who would pool points in a FF scheme for an airline which only flies to Asia and the US?

Making money on codeshares is not all that lucrative, especially when your pax just decide to buy the code share airline's flights directly for less. How many people have flown on an EK code now they get WP benefits that would never have spent a cent on an EK flight?

And contrary to a non-loyal occasional Y traveller's belief, some people aren't just driven by fares.

 

[Robbi]

How many people have flown on an EK code now they get WP benefits that would never have spent a cent on an EK flight?

Only if it gives me QF SC's and is cheaper.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Quite simply, their network would be so small nobody would stay with QF. These routes are still quite profitable (SYD-LHR, maybe not so much MEL). It's the flow on effect. Who would pool points in a FF scheme for an airline which only flies to Asia and the US?

Making money on codeshares is not all that lucrative, especially when your pax just decide to buy the code share airline's flights directly for less. How many people have flown on an EK code now they get WP benefits that would never have spent a cent on an EK flight?

And contrary to a non-loyal occasional Y traveller's belief, some people aren't just driven by fares.

We don't know for sure that SYD-LHR is profitable, do we?

Fair enough point on the codeshare scenario, but it hasn't stopped VA selling a decent number of tickets on EY....which I'm sure will only go up now that EY will fly out of PER.

And you are right, some people aren't just driven by low fares - but it would be fair to say that, these days, the vast majority are. Just see how many flights Air Asia, Tiger, Jetstar and Scoot are operating in to Asia...

 

[Mavrrix]

Interesting post in another thread (re: announcement Feb 27th) that triggered my interest.

The 777 might also be a good a/c to allow QF to route to LHR via LAX and terminate the 380s at DXB (with onward codeshare to LHR).

Why would they want to do this? For LHR-bound passengers, it's a longer flight than via DXB, and a USA transit is a total pain in the cough. There's already lots of competition on LAX-LHR, so I doubt there's too much money to be made on that segment.

 

[markis10]

Why would they want to do this? For LHR-bound passengers, it's a longer flight than via DXB, and a USA transit is a total pain in the cough. There's already lots of competition on LAX-LHR, so I doubt there's too much money to be made on that segment.

Seems to be working for NZ, they may be two hours closer but I also believe a lot of traffic does both the UK and USA in one trip.

 

[docjames]

As far as I'm aware, EK have publicly stated that they need/are expecting more A380s.

Yes, but most of those (the latest order at Dubai airshow) are for delivery a fair way into the future (2020+).

I was suggesting they could get hold of Qantas's remaining frames a lot sooner.

 

[markis10]

Yes, but most of those (the latest order at Dubai airshow) are for delivery a fair way into the future (2020+).

I was suggesting they could get hold of Qantas's remaining frames a lot sooner.

That info was not confirmed, with slots available in 2015 and on I would be surprised if that order is not done by 2020, QF slots are not that close.

Airbus CEO Fabrice Bregier said in Dubai that the order will help to fill open production slots, although not all the details including delivery timing have been sorted out. Airbus has been trying for some time to fill “a handful” of 2015 production slots. Around 25 aircraft are to be delivered this year and the rate is supposed to be ramped up to 30 annually in order to achieve operational break-even by 2015. That guidance does not take into account the multi-billion production costs for the program.

Emirates Stabilizes Shaky A380 Order Book

 

[acrimmo]

B737-400 TJI leaves MEL on Monday 03/02 for retirement.

Should leave only 2 -400's left. TJS,TJX.

 

[CaviAck]

Seems to be working for NZ, they may be two hours closer but I also believe a lot of traffic does both the UK and USA in one trip.

From		To		Initial Heading		Distance
2 segment path:			11960 mi
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E)	LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	50.0°	(NE)	6504 mi
LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	34.1°	(NE)	5456 mi
2 segment path:			11990 mi
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E)	SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	282.8°	(W)	5225 mi
SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	322.4°	(NW)	6765 mi
2 segment path:			12244 mi
AKL (37°00'29"S 174°47'30"E)	DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	275.1°	(W)	8824 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	317.2°	(NW)	3421 mi
2 segment path:			12944 mi
SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E)	LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	61.2°	(NE)	7488 mi
LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	34.1°	(NE)	5456 mi
2 segment path:			10672 mi
SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E)	SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	298.4°	(NW)	3908 mi
SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	322.4°	(NW)	6765 mi
2 segment path:			10901 mi
SYD (33°56'46"S 151°10'38"E)	DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	288.4°	(W)	7481 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	317.2°	(NW)	3421 mi
2 segment path:			13377 mi
MEL (37°40'24"S 144°50'36"E)	LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	65.3°	(NE)	7921 mi
LAX (33°56'33"N 118°24'29"W)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	34.1°	(NE)	5456 mi
2 segment path:			10508 mi
MEL (37°40'24"S 144°50'36"E)	SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	306.2°	(NW)	3744 mi
SIN (1°21'33"N 103°59'22"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	322.4°	(NW)	6765 mi
2 segment path:			10651 mi
MEL (37°40'24"S 144°50'36"E)	DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	290.6°	(W)	7231 mi
DXB (25°15'10"N 55°21'52"E)	LHR (51°28'39"N 0°27'41"W)	317.2°	(NW)	3421 mi
Total:			105248 mi

It's shorter for NZ to fly via LAX (not by much though). By flying to LAX they can double up with AKL-LAX traffic and then any American LAX-LHR traffic.
Not sure about how QF is going with each leg broken down, SYD/MEL-DBX and any DBX-LHR traffic when competing with EK and to an extent EY considering how close AUH and DXB are. Come to think of it QF, disregarding longer flight distances/times, I wonder if flying via LOTFAP would allow QF to pick up a fair size of the market between LAX/(resume flights to SFO/DFW/(maybe JFK)-LHR with the QF prestige. They can also then codeshare with AA to other EU destinations?

B737-400 TJI leaves MEL on Monday 03/02 for retirement.

Should leave only 2 -400's left. TJS,TJX.

That brings the average fleet age down so close to 9 years. If VH-TJI left a week ago that would've done it. (Although if you judge from delivery date instead of first flight, the average fleet age should be below 9 years once TJI leaves.)

 

[ComeFlyWithMe]

We don't know for sure that SYD-LHR is profitable, do we?

SYD-LHR and SYD-LAX have been the stars of QFi for quite some time. Many other routes are subsidised by these.

A smart decision was not to give up lucrative LHR slots which they lease to make extra cash too.

Many of the poor performing routes are of QFs own making, with poor equipment decisions and sub-standard hard product. Anywhere they are running a 767 a case in point.

 

[Isochronous]

SYD-LHR and SYD-LAX have been the stars of QFi for quite some time. Many other routes are subsidised by these.

A smart decision was not to give up lucrative LHR slots which they lease to make extra cash too.

Many of the poor performing routes are of QFs own making, with poor equipment decisions and sub-standard hard product. Anywhere they are running a 767 a case in point.

That's only HNL internationally - and that's supposed to be a route where both QF and JQ profit.

 

[Mattg]

Chances are that QFi can never be profitable when in competition with Asian and ME airlines. So if you are Qantas use your great brand name to sell tickets under code share as you suggest and focus on domestic and the small number of routes where you can make money and stop trying to show off by flying to LHR.

The North American carriers are all second rate so hit that market hard where you stand a chance of competing and where the brand name is held in high regard and where you will be the sole Oneworld carrier. LAX, YVR, DFW, HNL, maybe SFO and JFK.

It has become quite apparent during my travels that there are some destinations which QF could have a lot of potential with but are taking for granted. For example, Canada. I have met so many Canadians who want to come to Australia but can't afford to come directly because the only airline who flies direct is Air Canada, and they are too expensive and not a great airline. And of course, there are a LOT of Australians who want to go to Canada as well!

IMHO QF could do very well if they flew to, say, Vancouver, because:
-there are a lot of Canadians who want to come to Australia, and vice versa
-those Canadians aren't just going to want to visit Sydney and then go home, they'll want to visit other places, meaning they will also use QF domestic, presumably
-the current benchmark in terms of fare prices is very high
-the only competition (Air Canada) has an inferior product
-the prestige of Qantas, which many North Americans perceive as a quality airline
-gives QF customers another alternative to transiting through LAX