Qantas cutting domestic capacity by 5%

[Laptop Jockey]

Either the war ends soon, or the war is escalated beyond tit for tat missile strikes into a full blown ground invasion with thousands of casualties.

The former option is more likely.

The latter is exceedingly unlikely if by "full blown ground invasion" you're talking 2003 Iraq style drive on Tehran (or any other major Iranian city). There simply aren't the forces in theatre, and would be a drawn out build-up over months. An Airborne brigade and a Marine Expeditionary Unit (Battalion+) or two aren't doing anything other than maybe seizing some coastline. Even that would make OIF seen like a masterclass in operational planning and foresight.
The Iranian government appear to have realised (or at least believe) the US have gone as far as they are really willing to, the people aren't coming back out into the streets, and neither the army nor pasdaran are turning on them; just wait it out and the US will cave.

 

[Laptop Jockey]

I had a dash 8 on BNE-CBR before (QF2567, Nov 2013). I hope that doesn't happen again.

I've also had a dash 8 on CBR-MEL at some point (also had a 767 once on that route, but mostly 717s and A220s)

Yeah, they've always operated on the routes, but just going through making a few bookings they seem a greater proportion than usual, although this is just anecdotally booking a few flights. Having flights changed in advance was interesting though; I've had 737/A220/717 switcheroos plenty of times CBR-MEL but moving to Dash 8s was a (unwelcome) surprise. I'm sure someone somewhere has a spreadsheet to compare if there's any material changes to confirm/disprove though.

 

[jamesatfish]

I had a dash 8 on BNE-CBR before (QF2567, Nov 2013). I hope that doesn't happen again.

I've also had a dash 8 on CBR-MEL at some point (also had a 767 once on that route, but mostly 717s and A220s)

They still fly CBR-BNE, even worse the first flight of the day (6am departure) is a Dash-8 so if you need to get into Brisbane for early appointments you're stuck on a flight with no J, cramped seats, minimal luggage space, no meal service and a 20 minute wait upon landing for a bus to drive you back from the out-stand to the terminal.

 

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Includes QantasLink flights to Mount Gambier being suspended completely.

Breaking: Qantas cancels flights between Adelaide and Mount Gambier amid fuel shortages

ABC reported that ADL- Port Lincoln is getting the chop also.

 

[Saab34]

ABC reported that ADL- Port Lincoln is getting the chop also.

Can’t see this one online? Bookings still wide open

 

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Can’t see this one online? Bookings still wide open

It was a snippet heard on local ABC radio.

 

[Warragul]

It was a snippet heard on local ABC radio.

I think it is a reduction in frequency.

 

[jase05]

I think it is a reduction in frequency.

Yeah, multiple flight per day on the route and they aren’t going to chop them all. We are hearing they might lose 1 of their daily’s

 

[Quickstatus]

But somebody does

Which means they will happily sell to anyone who wants it if Qantas does not want it. There is no mandatory rationing in the airline space at the moment.

I believe the more rational explanation for the 5% reduction is that Jetfuel price is increasing Qantas' costs and it is finding ways to reduce that cost by improving operational efficiency - such as increasing seat occupancy through reducing capacity especially on more marginally profitable routes. This is in the context of lowest consumer confidence in 3 years. Consumer confidence likely will determine airline seat demand and ability to pay for price hikes to cover excess fuel costs. Increasing seat capacity on existing flights by price discounting would likely not work for the same reason.

 

[AuSammy]

Graphic indication of what airlines are facing. Economies have to be made, price pressures addressed. Thats besides impeding shortages

 

[Pushka]

Of course PL is one of our bookings...

 

[jrfsp]

Graphic indication of what airlines are facing. Economies have to be made, price pressures addressed. Thats besides impeding shortages

View attachment 503854

Or demand shortfalls.

 

[AuSammy]

Or demand shortfalls.

There will be a two sided coin. Uncertainty and economic circumstances will reduce overall demand. However, airlines that can’t get fuel cutting /not flying will result in those passengers who still want/need to fly will move to flights still scheduled with carriers who can - creating demand.

 

[Quickstatus]

those passengers who still want/need to fly will move to flights still scheduled with carriers who can - creating demand.

Hence a unilateral altruistic measure to save fuel is not going to work as the fuel suppliers will happily sell fuel to anyone that wants it.

All airlines are impacted more or less equally in a fuel shortage at any particular airport assuming they anre happy to pay the fuel price. The only way that airlines can mitigate against fuel supply disruption at any one particular airport is to carry their own fuel (tanking) into that airport. Not a chance that international flights can tank fuel into Australia and depart without refueling.

 

[Rabs97]

So how about you tell us who they are, where they are, and how much of THEIR fuel resouurces are they going to sell to us in the current situation????

Because LNG stocks out of the Gulf have been disrupted to a higher extent than oil has. Australia has plenty of LNG supply, which supplies up to 50% of electrical power generation in some south East Asian countries. Singapore, Japan, China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brunei have already done “quid pro quo” deals to keep refined fuel supply stable in return for LNG and other Australian rich resources.

The other advantage for Australia is we are a wealthy nation, the wealthiest in the region. So we can pay a higher price to guarantee fuel supply, whereas a poorer nation in the region like Philippines, Vietnam or Cambodia can’t.

 

[Quickstatus]

poorer nation in the region like Philippines, Vietnam or Cambodia can’t.

Vietnam apparently has enough incoming to meet usual demand for April
While fuel prices have risen 60%, the domestic retail market is currently being subsidised by their fuel stabilisation fund
Currently retail prices are about $1.20 for U92 and $1.50 for diesel.
Not sure if Jetfuel is subsidised by the fund.

Reuters commentary:
VN (the airline) has suspended 7 domestic routes and may reduce between 10-20% depending on the Jetfuel price
VJ (the LCC) is reducing up to 22% of domestic capacity and 11% of international capacity.
QH (bamboo) is planning to reduce their flying by 50%

 

[kookaburra75]

I had a dash 8 on BNE-CBR before (QF2567, Nov 2013). I hope that doesn't happen again.
I've also had a dash 8 on CBR-MEL at some point (also had a 767 once on that route, but mostly 717s and A220s)

Yeah, they've always operated on the routes, but just going through making a few bookings they seem a greater proportion than usual, although this is just anecdotally booking a few flights. Having flights changed in advance was interesting though; I've had 737/A220/717 switcheroos plenty of times CBR-MEL but moving to Dash 8s was a (unwelcome) surprise. I'm sure someone somewhere has a spreadsheet to compare if there's any material changes to confirm/disprove though.

They still do CBR-BNE on the weekends, and by the look of things, other days too. Two hours in a Dash8 is a bit much though. Last Dec when we went down to Hobart for a few days Qantas switched the jet for a Dash8 in both directions, which wasn't good either.
I used to use pick the 6pm MEL-CBR on the Dash8, as it got me home quicker than having to wait around until the 7.40pm - although it's only just over an hour.

As so many flights get cancelled coming into CBR anyway, I doubt whether we'll notice much difference

 

[Kingo42]

Reports are QF has cut 3x weekly HBA-MEL, 2x weekly HBA-SYD and Saturday SYD-LST services in May and June, looks to be all a220 - maybe redeploying them on longer 737 routes to save fuel...
Paywall (LST Flights) https://www.themercury.com.au/news/...s/news-story/e59cd4d0a61c161c0c7d81c210ac209a
Free (Hobart Flights) Flights reduced to and from Hobart as airline moves to save on fuel costs - ABC listen