Qantas cutting domestic capacity by 5%

[Laptop Jockey]

Either the war ends soon, or the war is escalated beyond tit for tat missile strikes into a full blown ground invasion with thousands of casualties.

The former option is more likely.

The latter is exceedingly unlikely if by "full blown ground invasion" you're talking 2003 Iraq style drive on Tehran (or any other major Iranian city). There simply aren't the forces in theatre, and would be a drawn out build-up over months. An Airborne brigade and a Marine Expeditionary Unit (Battalion+) or two aren't doing anything other than maybe seizing some coastline. Even that would make OIF seen like a masterclass in operational planning and foresight.
The Iranian government appear to have realised (or at least believe) the US have gone as far as they are really willing to, the people aren't coming back out into the streets, and neither the army nor pasdaran are turning on them; just wait it out and the US will cave.

 

[Laptop Jockey]

I had a dash 8 on BNE-CBR before (QF2567, Nov 2013). I hope that doesn't happen again.

I've also had a dash 8 on CBR-MEL at some point (also had a 767 once on that route, but mostly 717s and A220s)

Yeah, they've always operated on the routes, but just going through making a few bookings they seem a greater proportion than usual, although this is just anecdotally booking a few flights. Having flights changed in advance was interesting though; I've had 737/A220/717 switcheroos plenty of times CBR-MEL but moving to Dash 8s was a (unwelcome) surprise. I'm sure someone somewhere has a spreadsheet to compare if there's any material changes to confirm/disprove though.

 

[jamesatfish]

I had a dash 8 on BNE-CBR before (QF2567, Nov 2013). I hope that doesn't happen again.

I've also had a dash 8 on CBR-MEL at some point (also had a 767 once on that route, but mostly 717s and A220s)

They still fly CBR-BNE, even worse the first flight of the day (6am departure) is a Dash-8 so if you need to get into Brisbane for early appointments you're stuck on a flight with no J, cramped seats, minimal luggage space, no meal service and a 20 minute wait upon landing for a bus to drive you back from the out-stand to the terminal.

 

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Includes QantasLink flights to Mount Gambier being suspended completely.

Breaking: Qantas cancels flights between Adelaide and Mount Gambier amid fuel shortages

ABC reported that ADL- Port Lincoln is getting the chop also.

 

[Saab34]

ABC reported that ADL- Port Lincoln is getting the chop also.

Can’t see this one online? Bookings still wide open

 

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Can’t see this one online? Bookings still wide open

It was a snippet heard on local ABC radio.

 

[Warragul]

It was a snippet heard on local ABC radio.

I think it is a reduction in frequency.

 

[jase05]

I think it is a reduction in frequency.

Yeah, multiple flight per day on the route and they aren’t going to chop them all. We are hearing they might lose 1 of their daily’s

 

[Quickstatus]

But somebody does

Which means they will happily sell to anyone who wants it if Qantas does not want it. There is no mandatory rationing in the airline space at the moment.

I believe the more rational explanation for the 5% reduction is that Jetfuel price is increasing Qantas' costs and it is finding ways to reduce that cost by improving operational efficiency - such as increasing seat occupancy through reducing capacity especially on more marginally profitable routes. This is in the context of lowest consumer confidence in 3 years. Consumer confidence likely will determine airline seat demand and ability to pay for price hikes to cover excess fuel costs. Increasing seat capacity on existing flights by price discounting would likely not work for the same reason.

 

[AuSammy]

Graphic indication of what airlines are facing. Economies have to be made, price pressures addressed. Thats besides impeding shortages

 

[Pushka]

Of course PL is one of our bookings...

 

[jrfsp]

Graphic indication of what airlines are facing. Economies have to be made, price pressures addressed. Thats besides impeding shortages

View attachment 503854

Or demand shortfalls.

 

[AuSammy]

Or demand shortfalls.

There will be a two sided coin. Uncertainty and economic circumstances will reduce overall demand. However, airlines that can’t get fuel cutting /not flying will result in those passengers who still want/need to fly will move to flights still scheduled with carriers who can - creating demand.

 

[Quickstatus]

those passengers who still want/need to fly will move to flights still scheduled with carriers who can - creating demand.

Hence a unilateral altruistic measure to save fuel is not going to work as the fuel suppliers will happily sell fuel to anyone that wants it.