Qantas A380 New Route Speculation

[evanb]

Presumably they would be blocking quite a few seats on a 388 flying DFW-SYD.

I remember when I attended a QF feedback session last year and there were quite a few C-level executives and other senior staff. One of them made an off the cuff comment about how much more expensive it was for them to run 388s to DFW.

It's more expensive to run the A380 on any route compared to the B787-9. But it can also generate a lot more revenue.

But yes, quite a few blocked seats, but they don't mind blocking many economy seats if it means selling more in first, business and/or premium economy. FWIW, B787-9 also has to block seats at this time of year. On Saturday the B787-9 had to go into BNE for fuel on the way back from DFW.

 

[SYD]

Still have no idea what that means.

There's been plenty of spare B787 time between the end of European peak summer (when seasonal SYD-PER-FCO) ended and when seasonal SYD-SCL and SYD-YVR increases start. They didn't send it back to JNB, rather using is ad hoc to SIN and HNL.

And the A380 was deployed to JNB well before DFW which says something about what they think is the most suitable aircraft for JNB, and where they'd prefer the B787 to be going.

It was 787 for ages post the 747 retirement. Switching to A380 reduced frequency albeit arguably more capacity.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer the A380 over a 787 any day! Plus 4 engines can fly a more economical southern route.

Yes, if it’s making money v somewhere else they’ll keep it on for sure.

But if there’s a downturn, it’ll be the first to go.

 

[evanb]

It was 787 for ages post the 747 retirement. Switching to A380 reduced frequency albeit arguably more capacity.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer the A380 over a 787 any day! Plus 4 engines can fly a more economical southern route.

Yes, if it’s making money v somewhere else they’ll keep it on for sure.

But if there’s a downturn, it’ll be the first to go.

It was B787 after B747 since they barely had any A380s. You may recall the slow A380 RTS. The plan was always A380 once they had sufficient aircraft. This is because the B787 is massively payload restricted from JNB due to its altitude (5700ft). B787 isn't a great hot and high performer and they don't have the scheduling luxury to push departure into the evening for cooler temps. A380 is a beast under these conditions. The calculus will change once the A350 arrives since it's significantly better hot and high (much bigger wing).

On what basis do you assume it'll be first to go in a downturn? You mean the fleet as a whole or the route specifically?

 

[SYD]

On what basis do you assume it'll be first to go in a downturn? You mean the fleet as a whole or the route specifically?

A380 on that route and reverted back to 787 as it was precovid when there was a 12x A380 fleet.

Although, unlike SYD-HKG, they are selling F and I guess that’s helping the revenue numbers on the reduced frequency.

 

[evanb]

A380 on that route and reverted back to 787 as it was precovid when there was a 12x A380 fleet.

Although, unlike SYD-HKG, they are selling F and I guess that’s helping the revenue numbers on the reduced frequency.

It was never B787 before COVID. It was B747 all the way through to the COVID shutdown.

 

[markis10]

It's scheduled as such through the NS season and performing pretty well

If you call seat utilisation at a level close to the bottom of all destinations well then fair enough, hopefully the 50% year on year growth will continue and the route can move above East Timor and Palau on that metric.

 

[evanb]

If you call seat utilisation at a level close to the bottom of all destinations well then fair enough, hopefully the 50% year on year growth will continue and the route can move above East Timor and Palau on that metric.

SYD-JNB? It's at 83% over last 12 months which is quite remarkable given the implicit seasonality in the route.

 

[Brettmcg]

Have it on good authority that the QF21/22 MEL-DFW v.v. will become a daily A380 during weeks 2-4 of JAN26.

 

[Ricicles]

Have it on good authority that the QF21/22 MEL-DFW v.v. will become a daily A380 during weeks 2-4 of JAN26.

That makes me happy!

 

[moa999]

Was reported on airliners.net that VH-OQC was briefly live on FR24 over the weekend and seemingly moved, so possibly closer to its return.

 

[RSD]

Was reported on airliners.net that VH-OQC was briefly live on FR24 over the weekend and seemingly moved, so possibly closer to its return.

That would be very welcome!

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

QF should expand the A380 fleet.

 

[LionKing]

QF should expand the A380 fleet.

We don't need more A380s.
What we need is 100x A321XLRs to replace B737-800s and also a strong fleet (more than 16 currently ordered) to SE Asia, East Asia and South Asia.
I am highly concerned that if Qantas are not getting XLRs with lie flat Business Class to India, Pakistan and Nepal, Qantas will repeat the failure where South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas.

 

[elanshin]

We don't need more A380s.
What we need is 100x A321XLRs to replace B737-800s and also a strong fleet (more than 16 currently ordered) to SE Asia, East Asia and South Asia.
I am highly concerned that if Qantas are not getting XLRs with lie flat Business Class to India, Pakistan and Nepal, Qantas will repeat the failure where South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas.

Wait why would you want 321XLRs for that mission. It should be even more 787s and 350s.

 

[markis10]

should be even more 787s and 350s.

They do have 24 of those on order, deliveries are a long way away though

 

[Himeno]

They do have 24 of those on order, deliveries are a long way away though

So are new orders for anything from Boeing or Airbus.
Lead times of 3-7 years (depending on model) for new orders.

 

[evanb]

I am highly concerned that if Qantas are not getting XLRs with lie flat Business Class to India, Pakistan and Nepal, Qantas will repeat the failure where South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas.

Which South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas?

South Asia is pretty low yield and very seasonal. Nepal and Pakistan are pretty small markets with very high operational challenges which mean high cost. Nepal because it's nearly 5000ft AMSL so big payload restrictions, while Pakistan has huge security issues. High cost combined with low yield is really difficult. XLR's cost advantage is trip cost, but it's not going to have lower unit costs than a B787 or A350.

Qantas/Jetstar are setting themselves up well in South Asia at the moment. Next up will be Sri Lanka which is a much bigger market than Nepal and Pakistan, almost as big as them combined.

 

[WilsonM]

I am highly concerned that if Qantas are not getting XLRs with lie flat Business Class to India, Pakistan and Nepal, Qantas will repeat the failure where South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas.

Qantas have already said they'll equip a subfleet with lie-flat. Also, QF Group have many more options for A321s beyond the firm order count.

 

[Ansett Nostalgic]

We don't need more A380s.
What we need is 100x A321XLRs to replace B737-800s and also a strong fleet (more than 16 currently ordered) to SE Asia, East Asia and South Asia.
I am highly concerned that if Qantas are not getting XLRs with lie flat Business Class to India, Pakistan and Nepal, Qantas will repeat the failure where South Asian carriers are outstripping and outserving Qantas.

For South Asia service, the A380 is a must to ensure the plane has a sufficiently large septic tank and toilet to passenger ratio

 

[muppet]

Have it on good authority that the QF21/22 MEL-DFW v.v. will become a daily A380 during weeks 2-4 of JAN26.

Gee 2 whole weeks? So 6 flights?

EDIT: I missed that you said its becoming daily …