Qantas A380 New Route Speculation

[evanb]

Presumably they would be blocking quite a few seats on a 388 flying DFW-SYD.

I remember when I attended a QF feedback session last year and there were quite a few C-level executives and other senior staff. One of them made an off the cuff comment about how much more expensive it was for them to run 388s to DFW.

It's more expensive to run the A380 on any route compared to the B787-9. But it can also generate a lot more revenue.

But yes, quite a few blocked seats, but they don't mind blocking many economy seats if it means selling more in first, business and/or premium economy. FWIW, B787-9 also has to block seats at this time of year. On Saturday the B787-9 had to go into BNE for fuel on the way back from DFW.

 

[SYD]

Still have no idea what that means.

There's been plenty of spare B787 time between the end of European peak summer (when seasonal SYD-PER-FCO) ended and when seasonal SYD-SCL and SYD-YVR increases start. They didn't send it back to JNB, rather using is ad hoc to SIN and HNL.

And the A380 was deployed to JNB well before DFW which says something about what they think is the most suitable aircraft for JNB, and where they'd prefer the B787 to be going.

It was 787 for ages post the 747 retirement. Switching to A380 reduced frequency albeit arguably more capacity.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer the A380 over a 787 any day! Plus 4 engines can fly a more economical southern route.

Yes, if it’s making money v somewhere else they’ll keep it on for sure.

But if there’s a downturn, it’ll be the first to go.

 

[evanb]

It was 787 for ages post the 747 retirement. Switching to A380 reduced frequency albeit arguably more capacity.

Don’t get me wrong, I’d prefer the A380 over a 787 any day! Plus 4 engines can fly a more economical southern route.

Yes, if it’s making money v somewhere else they’ll keep it on for sure.

But if there’s a downturn, it’ll be the first to go.

It was B787 after B747 since they barely had any A380s. You may recall the slow A380 RTS. The plan was always A380 once they had sufficient aircraft. This is because the B787 is massively payload restricted from JNB due to its altitude (5700ft). B787 isn't a great hot and high performer and they don't have the scheduling luxury to push departure into the evening for cooler temps. A380 is a beast under these conditions. The calculus will change once the A350 arrives since it's significantly better hot and high (much bigger wing).

On what basis do you assume it'll be first to go in a downturn? You mean the fleet as a whole or the route specifically?

 

[SYD]

On what basis do you assume it'll be first to go in a downturn? You mean the fleet as a whole or the route specifically?

A380 on that route and reverted back to 787 as it was precovid when there was a 12x A380 fleet.

Although, unlike SYD-HKG, they are selling F and I guess that’s helping the revenue numbers on the reduced frequency.

 

[evanb]

A380 on that route and reverted back to 787 as it was precovid when there was a 12x A380 fleet.

Although, unlike SYD-HKG, they are selling F and I guess that’s helping the revenue numbers on the reduced frequency.

It was never B787 before COVID. It was B747 all the way through to the COVID shutdown.

 

[markis10]

It's scheduled as such through the NS season and performing pretty well

If you call seat utilisation at a level close to the bottom of all destinations well then fair enough, hopefully the 50% year on year growth will continue and the route can move above East Timor and Palau on that metric.

 

[evanb]

If you call seat utilisation at a level close to the bottom of all destinations well then fair enough, hopefully the 50% year on year growth will continue and the route can move above East Timor and Palau on that metric.

SYD-JNB? It's at 83% over last 12 months which is quite remarkable given the implicit seasonality in the route.