Qantas A380 New Route Speculation

[markis10]

Won’t happen. The 767 had much more of a claim to preservation, and they just disappeared, and have been forgotten by almost everyone.

Agree, and there are two unwanted SQ birds languishing in ASP already.

 

[HirafuHeartAttack]

Sorry to jump into an old thread but figured it's somewhat relevant.

Looking at SE asia in Feb, and just wondering if anyone had any insight into whether QF would throw A380s on the Syd-HKG route for summer/CNY again?

I know they did in 2023/24 and from what I can see it was announced roughly this time of year but I don't know if they did for 2024/25.

Trying to gauge whether this might trigger more seats being released.

 

[JohnK]

SYD-BKK or SYD-SIN or any other Australian city to BKK or SIN.

Currently there's quite good demand and people are going elsewhere.

 

[Saab34]

I agree SIN and BKK are two very popular routes at the moment, loads are strong for QF and it would be good to see them increase BKK, even start a new direct from another city.

 

[SYD]

I agree SIN and BKK are two very popular routes at the moment, loads are strong for QF and it would be good to see them increase BKK, even start a new direct from another city.

Yes. Finding premium CR seats on those routes is almost impossible, so presumably they’re making money not releasing them. Compare that to CGK, MNL and HKG (and some Indian ports) that are pretty generous with CR seats.

 

[NSun]

I agree SIN and BKK are two very popular routes at the moment, loads are strong for QF and it would be good to see them increase BKK, even start a new direct from another city.

And any A380 routes to Asia would only use 1 frame per 24 hours.

 

[mbe1510]

Doesn't Qantas typically up the frequency to Johannesburg during summer school holidays? I know they were almost daily in the June/July period.

Knowing the reliability issues Qantas A380s face suspect they will keep one or so as an operational spare like has been done in the past. Always amazes me how frequent QF11 is late. I reckon I hear it above my house a few hours later at least once a week.

 

[Himeno]

And any A380 routes to Asia would only use 1 frame per 24 hours.

It depends how far into Asia the flight goes. Allowing for turnarounds, flights past around 10 hours would be getting a bit tight for a same day return for daily flight using only 1 aircraft.

 

[AIRwin]

Always amazes me how frequent QF11 is late.

Delayed again:

 

[evanb]

Unlikely A380 will go back to SYD-HKG next year since it'll be going to SYD-SIN 2x/week from NS26. SYD-JNB will remain 4x/week with PER-JNB 3x/week on the alternate days. Together with daily SYD-DFW, SYD-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR and 2x/week MEL-LAX (with the base maintenance transit at LAX), that accounts for 9 aircraft. With the length of time taking for heavy maintenance, they'll need the 10th to cover that for the time being unless that shortens.

 

[elanshin]

Unlikely A380 will go back to SYD-HKG next year since it'll be going to SYD-SIN 2x/week from NS26. SYD-JNB will remain 4x/week with PER-JNB 3x/week on the alternate days. Together with daily SYD-DFW, SYD-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR and 2x/week MEL-LAX (with the base maintenance transit at LAX), that accounts for 9 aircraft. With the length of time taking for heavy maintenance, they'll need the 10th to cover that for the time being unless that shortens.

Wouldn't that be precisely when we could see additional HKG service pop out of nowhere if QF has an extra bird for short period of time which I believe @HirafuHeartAttack was asking about?

In the next few months during peak travel especially with Lunar New Year before NS26 schedule starts

 

[SYD]

Unlikely A380 will go back to SYD-HKG next year since it'll be going to SYD-SIN 2x/week from NS26. SYD-JNB will remain 4x/week with PER-JNB 3x/week on the alternate days. Together with daily SYD-DFW, SYD-LAX, SYD-SIN-LHR and 2x/week MEL-LAX (with the base maintenance transit at LAX), that accounts for 9 aircraft. With the length of time taking for heavy maintenance, they'll need the 10th to cover that for the time being unless that shortens.

SYD-JNB is probably the wildcard in that lot?

 

[evanb]

Wouldn't that be precisely when we could see additional HKG service pop out of nowhere if QF has an extra bird for short period of time which I believe @HirafuHeartAttack was asking about?

In the next few months during peak travel especially with Lunar New Year before NS26 schedule starts

But it doesn't have slack for some time, that's the point. The length of time taken in heavy maintenance has typically meant one aircraft coming back and being replaced with another the next day.

And the heavy maintenance schedule isn't ending anytime soon because they're taking so long. When heavy maintenance transits were taking 2-4 weeks it meant that a 12 aircraft fleet needed 24-48 weeks over the 2 year cycle. When that's at 2-3 months the smaller 10 aircraft fleet it needing 80-120 weeks over the 2 year cycle. This effectively means at least one aircraft in heavy maintenance at all times. Some of this is because current cycle involves a lot of D-checks with other work on wing spars and landing gear means that it'll be a while until they're back to 2-4 week transits.

 

[evanb]

SYD-JNB is probably the wildcard in that lot?

Not sure what you mean? It's scheduled as such through the NS season and performing pretty well. It's probably one of the most consistent performers for Qantas.

 

[SYD]

Not sure what you mean? It's scheduled as such through the NS season and performing pretty well. It's probably one of the most consistent performers for Qantas.

Just if they stumble across a spare 787 and free up the A380…

 

[elanshin]

But it doesn't have slack for some time, that's the point. The length of time taken in heavy maintenance has typically meant one aircraft coming back and being replaced with another the next day.

And the heavy maintenance schedule isn't ending anytime soon because they're taking so long. When heavy maintenance transits were taking 2-4 weeks it meant that a 12 aircraft fleet needed 24-48 weeks over the 2 year cycle. When that's at 2-3 months the smaller 10 aircraft fleet it needing 80-120 weeks over the 2 year cycle. This effectively means at least one aircraft in heavy maintenance at all times. Some of this is because current cycle involves a lot of D-checks with other work on wing spars and landing gear means that it'll be a while until they're back to 2-4 week transits.

Depends on when oqc is done though. Im merely suggesting that if there was an extra that appeared (oqc), HKG would be an option until NS26 schedule kicked in.

 

[evanb]

Just if they stumble across a spare 787 and free up the A380…

Still have no idea what that means.

There's been plenty of spare B787 time between the end of European peak summer (when seasonal SYD-PER-FCO) ended and when seasonal SYD-SCL and SYD-YVR increases start. They didn't send it back to JNB, rather using is ad hoc to SIN and HNL.

And the A380 was deployed to JNB well before DFW which says something about what they think is the most suitable aircraft for JNB, and where they'd prefer the B787 to be going.

 

[evanb]

Depends on when oqc is done though. Im merely suggesting that if there was an extra that appeared (oqc), HKG would be an option until NS26 schedule kicked in.

OQC will return in time for SYD-DFW increasing to daily in early January. But the way things have gone with the A380s? Who knows!

 

[elanshin]

I'm also confused they're not installing the wifi domes whilst the aircrafts are in heavy maintenance.

 

[DAC1]

And the A380 was deployed to JNB well before DFW which says something about what they think is the most suitable aircraft for JNB, and where they'd prefer the B787 to be going.

Presumably they would be blocking quite a few seats on a 388 flying DFW-SYD.

I remember when I attended a QF feedback session last year and there were quite a few C-level executives and other senior staff. One of them made an off the cuff comment about how much more expensive it was for them to run 388s to DFW.