Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[jakeseven7]

Looks like demand is there

——

Australians rush to book flights home and for holidays following border news​

Australians trapped in London and desperate to see their families booked out the first regular flight home in 18 months within hours of seats becoming available.

Australians rush to book flights home and for holidays following border news

Some Australians living abroad say they are yet to find direct flights to Australia, and many of those making successful bookings are doing so amid some uncertainty about the lifting of the border ban.

www.smh.com.au

 

[MEL_Traveller]

You guys are making me nervous LOL. What is the chance that Scomo says if you are unvaccinated or non TGA vaccinated, you cannot enter Australia at all (atleast now you can do 14 day hotel quarantine).

I think it will go back to 'programming as normal'... ie you can't exclude Australian citizens from returning home, vaccinated or not. The governing legislation which allowed entry to be temporarily suspended to those from India won't be applicable (can't be satisfied). So if you turn up at the border, you have to be allowed in. For non-citizens, it will be like a visa... no visa, no entry.

If an airline mandates vaccination before being allowed on one of their aircraft, that's a different restriction and not related to the government.

 

[andye]

A vaccinated Chinese student is highly unlikely to end up on ICU or even in hospital for any length of time regardless of the vaccine-type. By then, IMO there will be more than enough Australian-Covid cases to be worried about foreign non-critically ill cases.

 

[Lynda2475]

what is really needed in a non-covid zero environment is protection (high efficacy) against hospitalisation.

and the TGA states that BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm China) protection "against hospitalisation has not been estimated" because "No studies are available to determine VE against severe infection/hospitalisation" and that "Based on published and pre-print data this suggests that the efficacy of BBIBP-CoV against symptomatic infection is slightly lower than Australian-approved vaccines, and there is currently no assessment of protection it offers against severe-infection/hospitalisation." Leading to a conclusion that "TGA thus considers that BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm) not be a "recognised vaccine" at this stage, because of the absence of information on severe infection/hospitalisation."

So I stand by my statement that we should not be considering those vaccinated with Sinopharm for at home quarantine or quarantine exemptions, irrespective of whether the WHO considers it acceptable.

 

[Lynda2475]

Well President Biden disagrees with you as well as Dr.Fauci.The USA has announced they will accept all on the WHO approved list.

However the TGA does agree with me that not all of the WHO approved vaccines are good enough to be recognized here.

 

[Flashback]

Looks like demand is there

——

Australians rush to book flights home and for holidays following border news​

Australians trapped in London and desperate to see their families booked out the first regular flight home in 18 months within hours of seats becoming available.

Australians rush to book flights home and for holidays following border news

Some Australians living abroad say they are yet to find direct flights to Australia, and many of those making successful bookings are doing so amid some uncertainty about the lifting of the border ban.

www.smh.com.au

No chance of bringing your partner with you though it she (or he) doesn't hold an Australian passport. I've been trying for the last 3 weeks to submit a eVisitor (651) visa application for my wife and it keeps failing on "The payment system is currently not available. Please try again later". It doesn't cost anything for that visa, too, which makes it all the more frustrating.

 

[dajop]

So I stand by my statement that we should not be considering those vaccinated with Sinopharm for at home quarantine or quarantine exemptions, irrespective of whether the WHO considers it acceptable.

We should be considering all vaccines, but if there isn't enough evidence that the vaccine works at the levels we desire - then don't recognise it. Very simple.

In face what I specifically responded to is "We need to insist only recognizing vaccines that actually work against Delta". That's exactly what the government is doing? Reviewing evidence and recognizing vaccines that have studies that show acceptable level of performance. Sinovac and Covishield (Indian AZ) OK, Sinopharm, Coaxin, Sputnik, Convidecia - not yet. Science at work.

 

[Seat0B]

I’ve found a statement from Services Australia about how the new international vaccination certificates will work for those of us who are dual citizens. Previous posts in this thread have provided basic details of the certificates (ICAO-compliant Visual Digital Seal etc) which will start to become available this month, but the certificate’s link to the subject’s Australian passport left me still uncertain about proof of vaccination when entering another country on a non-AU passport.

The Senate Covid-10 Enquiry took evidence from Services Australia on 30 Sep. Reading the transcript over the weekend I came across this passage which I don’t think has been reported by the media:

‘Senator KITCHING: I want to go to passports. There was a briefing given yesterday by Mr Robert and Senator Reynolds. You put in your passport number, there's back-end work, and your passport is then listed as having a certificate. But what happens with dual or multiple passport holders—people who may go out of the country on one passport because, say, they're lucky enough to be going to Europe? What happens if they come back on another? What happens if they're dual passport holders?
Mr Howard: There is the digital process, which Mr McHardie described earlier, which is for Australian passport holders—Australian citizens. For those people out there who have a dual citizenship, at the moment there's an assisted staff channel to enable them to get the certificate. They just need to ring Services Australia and we will be able to help them get the certificate for their foreign passport as well. There are plans in place for us to automate that process—to give a digital option to dual citizens—but that's going to take us a little bit more time. In the meantime, there's a staff assisted channel. You just need to ring the agency.’

To see this exchange in context it’s on p16 of the PDF of the transcript here; other discussion of the international certificate (as reported in the media) is on p11.

...which is terrific for dual citizens who are currently in the country, but is yet another example of the Catch 22 I referred to previously for poor old Seat Son.

He's a dual Australian/US citizen, who lives in Dubai on his US passport (better visa conditions) and was vaccinated there with Indian made AZ. How does the system work for him if he ever manages to get home to Australia - where he will have to use his Australian passport?

I'm not having a go at you @Telemachus - your posts are always very informative. It's just that yet again the overseas Aussie is regarded as a second or even third class citizen - or maybe not even as a citizen at all.

 

[Seat0B]

At the moment, to me anyway, it is still rather unclear when the new arrangements will start, and what the conditions of home quarantine will be, what the testing will be etc etc.

Yep, it is a frustrating dog's breakfast. And when you add the uncertainty about how you would get from Sydney to say Canberra or any other place that you live, it is enough to put you off making a speculative booking, that's for sure.

 

[Seat0B]

I'm not sure that number will stay that high once home quarantine starts - they want to scale down hotel quarantine, that's the whole point. It's a waste of resources.

It certainly won't be the same schedule as more and more airlines will be flying more flights to Australia.

At the moment, airlines don't have to consider vaccination status, so they sell the number of seats according to the caps. If they have to account for keeping track of vaccinated vs unvaccinated seats at time of sale, then enforcing this on check in, it does get complex.

At the risk of sounding political, it is relevant to note that the new NSW premier, Dominic Perrottet is not a fan of quarantine of any kind and has already been giving sound bites about abandoning it, especially hotel quarantine, as soon as he can.

 

[dajop]

Yep, it is a frustrating dog's breakfast. And when you add the uncertainty about how you would get from Sydney to say Canberra or any other place that you live, it is enough to put you off making a speculative booking, that's for sure.

On the other hand, I'm also comfortable that speculative bookings aren't necessary if you are comfortable flying carriers other than QF. Once there is some certainty the carriers currently serving Australia will suddenly be selling an extra 200-350 seats on each of the flights they are already operating, and at least whilst foreign travellers* are still excluded it won't be that difficult finding more affordable seats. TBH, I suspect the airfare in some instances will be less than the cost of the testing associated with the travel.

* Except sports people and celebrities

 

[Seat0B]

You guys are making me nervous LOL. What is the chance that Scomo says if you are unvaccinated or non TGA vaccinated, you cannot enter Australia at all (atleast now you can do 14 day hotel quarantine).

Deep breath. I know this is very stressful for you and I'm really hoping your fiance will get here soon.

 

[jrfsp]

TBH, I suspect the airfare in some instances will be less than the cost of the testing associated with the travel.

Agreed

Qantas reveals additional requirements for overseas travel

Speaking to journalists at the International Air Transport Association annual general meeting, Joyce revealed a few new details on what the future of travelling internationally will look like for Australians.

australianaviation.com.au

"Qantas boss Alan Joyce has revealed that Australian passengers will still need to undergo at least four COVID tests, as well as be fully vaccinated, when flying the airline internationally."

4 covid tests at $150 a pop. Those caravan sales are only going to increase i reckon.....

 

[Seat0B]

On the other hand, I'm also comfortable that speculative bookings aren't necessary if you are comfortable flying carriers other than QF. Once there is some certainty the carriers currently serving Australia will suddenly be selling an extra 200-350 seats on each of the flights they are already operating, and at least whilst foreign travellers* are still excluded it won't be that difficult finding more affordable seats. TBH, I suspect the airfare in some instances will be less than the cost of the testing associated with the travel.

* Except sports people and celebrities

I'm fine with a carrier other than QF - often have used a ME carrier to get to Dubai or Abu Dhabi to see Seat Son. But ability to make a connection from SYD back home to CBR by flight or car is still a factor that puts me off booking a flight to see him. And the cost of testing for Singapore, which was our initial "meet half way" idea is enough to make us consider meeting half way in London in March - hilarious really. Anyway, all speculative at this point, but looking very intently at all press announcements about travel.

 

[NoName]

URL unfurl="true"]https://australianaviation.com.au/2021/10/qantas-reveals-additional-requirements-for-overseas-travel/[/URL]

"Qantas boss Alan Joyce has revealed that Australian passengers will still need to undergo at least four COVID tests, as well as be fully vaccinated, when flying the airline internationally."

4 covid tests at $150 a pop. Those caravan sales are only going to increase i reckon.....

I wonder how long until Qantas Labs pops up? How many points per $$ will we earn for getting a COVID test? Any bonus points on offer?

 

[Polz]

I am hoping to go back to the Uk with family over Christmas. Unsurprisingly costs are ridiculous. Should we hold out for cheaper flights (ie will there be more inventory) or just book

 

[justinbrett]

Agreed

Qantas reveals additional requirements for overseas travel

Speaking to journalists at the International Air Transport Association annual general meeting, Joyce revealed a few new details on what the future of travelling internationally will look like for Australians.

australianaviation.com.au

"Qantas boss Alan Joyce has revealed that Australian passengers will still need to undergo at least four COVID tests, as well as be fully vaccinated, when flying the airline internationally."

4 covid tests at $150 a pop ONE WAY. Those caravan sales are only going to increase i reckon.....

I think you misread that - it's one before each flight (total 2 for a return trip), then another two during quarantine. The latter wouldn't be Qantas's requirements, it would be the government's.

It's quite possible and probable the latter tests would be either funded or subsidised by the government.

So two private tests for a return journey, and another two government mandated ones.

This is just the start - we have already seen the UK replace PCR tests with RAT.

Anyway, I'll pay the $600 if that's what it takes.

 

[eastwest101]

Will be interesting to see - looks like its going to be SYDAS operating a few very expensive 787 flights from SYD to a few overseas destinations with very onerous testing and quarantine requirements for outgoing and incoming passengers, while all the other airlines play chicken and "Who's on First" games with various state and federal governments and regulators.

As for anyone who lives more than 2 hours drive from Mascot airport, its doubtful you are going overseas, and your overseas family and freinds probably won't be seeing you either if you live in The Dear Leaders Republic of Danistan, Emperor McGowans Emirate of WA, Field Marshall Marshall of Suburban Adelaide, Governor Gutwein's Penal Colony of VanDiemens Land, or within her Majesty the Queen of QLD's empire, or more than 2 hours drive from Mascot Airport within NSW unless they have an unlimited budget, no commitments or timeframes, infinite amounts of spare time and are prepared to risk being stranded/imprisoned and/or breach various visa conditions on the whims of any of the sovereign leaders of the different states or Premier Morrison.

 

[Lynda2475]

That was the other thing - the NSW trial also included people living in apartment buildings.

As well it should., given how many Sydneysiders live in them.

I can isolate just as well in my apartment as a person in a single family home can. In my building there is no shared ventilation systems, no lifts, all have balconies for fresh air.

You can easily get a friend/family member to refill your fridge before you arrive or have deliveries left at your door. The 10 seconds or so of transiting a foyer whilst masked to get inside is less risky than the cab/uber ride from the airport which would take much longer.

 

[robbo135]

Will be interesting to see - looks like its going to be SYDAS operating a few very expensive 787 flights from SYD to a few overseas destinations with very onerous testing and quarantine requirements for outgoing and incoming passengers, while all the other airlines play chicken and "Who's on First" games with various state and federal governments and regulators.

As for anyone who lives more than 2 hours drive from Mascot airport, its doubtful you are going overseas, and your overseas family and freinds probably won't be seeing you either if you live in The Dear Leaders Republic of Danistan, Emperor McGowans Emirate of WA, Field Marshall Marshall of Suburban Adelaide, Governor Gutwein's Penal Colony of VanDiemens Land, or within her Majesty the Queen of QLD's empire, or more than 2 hours drive from Mascot Airport within NSW unless they have an unlimited budget, no commitments or timeframes, infinite amounts of spare time and are prepared to risk being stranded/imprisoned and/or breach various visa conditions on the whims of any of the sovereign leaders of the different states or Premier Morrison.

What about the great Kingdom of the North ruled by House of Gunner or the Great Lord Barr of the Capital? Will Lord Barr allow those of the Capital to traverse the lands of Prince Perrottet to seek freedom?
Will House of Gunner allow the Northerners refuge on the London express which will make a brief stop in Winterfell...sorry I mean Darwin.