Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Although a majority of people want the borders to remain closed the poll numbers for the Coalition aren't looking great.If you look at State elections he should look at the Tasmanian election more closely.Peter Gutwein has been one of the better Premiers and from the start put out a roadmap out of lockdown and kept to it.The state has gone over a year without a community transmission of Covid.
But in the State Election the Libs vote actually went down.fortunately for him the ALP vote went down further.Hardly a result like WA and QLD.
 
My money is still on late 22 first Quarter 23 said this over 12 months ago. Until they are sure that the vaccine your on protects against all variants you might as well be classed as un vaccinated. The largest study to date UK says OK but the figures aren’t in for the Delta variant yet! The study has only been going 7 months so a bit more time yet plus any new variations re set the clock. No harm in hope but could lead to depression.
Sadly I more and more think you're probably right in your prognostications. Unless there is some political leverage, that is currently not seen, comes into play.
 
A lot of political comments here!
Actually, it has to be. It’s all about the current Govt and how it is playing the next election by refusing to lay out a forward plan and simply sitting on ‘health advice’. Don’t know if the opposition would do it better but they aren’t in the chair right now.
 
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Actually, it has to be. It’s all about the current Govt and how it is playing the next election by refusing to lay out a forward plan and simply sitting on ‘health advice’. Don’t know if the opposition would do it better but they aren’t in the chair right now.
thats the real problem, on either side of the benches
 
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From time to time a travel bubble with Fiji has been mentioned. I am guessing now that is squarely off the table, with events of last few weeks. Last 2 days there have been 105 and 89 new cases respectively. For context, adjusted for population (~x7) that's the same as the peak new cases in Victoria's second wave.

 
thats the real problem, not one spine in the whole parliament, on either side of the benches
Unfortunately Labour can't state do anything against the current message, otherwise COVID will be the negative gearing to Shorten and the PM will kill him at election. Status quo unfortunately. Just look forward to 'keeping Australia safe' being mentioned by both parties for months leading to election.
 
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From time to time a travel bubble with Fiji has been mentioned. I am guessing now that is squarely off the table, with events of last few weeks. Last 2 days there have been 105 and 89 new cases respectively. For context, adjusted for population (~x7) that's the same as the peak new cases in Victoria's second wave.

With 38% of the population being of Indian descent, it was always likely any HQ breach would be a variant of concern, given the high percentage of arrivals in HQ coming form India. Hopefully they will find a way to better support locals so they can limit the spread, there has been low compliance with restrictions because people didn't have sufficient food to stay home and health care is very limited especially outside of Nadi and Suva.
 
The opposition has failed to hold the government to account.
I think Albo learnt a lot from Michael O'Brien (LP opposition leader) in Victoria during the long lockdown. He got almost no traction, despite the Victorian government losing a senior minister and senior public servant within the Premier's office, O'Brien ended up either no better or worse than before the second wave. Don't underestimate that outside the AFF bubble, border controls are immensely popular.
 
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Unfortunately Labour can't state do anything against the current message, otherwise COVID will be the negative gearing to Shorten and Scomo will kill him at election. Status quo unfortunately. Just look forward to 'keeping Australia safe' being mentioned by both parties for months leading to election.
I think more than that, Labor's demographic would skew harder towards overreacting everything-closed hand-out-borrowed-money response.
 
[moderator hat]
Regarding Recent Political Comment in This thread.
While generally Political Comment would be deleted, some of the recent comments are pertinent to this thread and its topic.​
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I have given up all hope of international travel by end 2022 (travel bubbles excepted) and hope maybe sometime in 2023...the government and opposition know the majority of voting Australians want the borders to stay shut and to do otherwise will be political suicide. In 6 months time, I will also be needing a booster vaccine dose...the disadvantage of getting the vaccine too early! If I was over 50 and haven't been vaccinated yet, I would wait till I could get the Pfizer vaccine....
 
I have given up all hope of international travel by end 2022

Agreed. I will be heading over to Vietnam sometime this year when they accept vaccine passports (remember, they are not looking at elections there) and quit my job here (hopefully) get an exemption showing that I have enough funds to sustain myself overseas, quit job, stat dec saying will not be back for a long time and then ride it out overseas until borders open after the election
 
maybe this will be the tipping point?
I'm not convinced. I think that for a lot of the population someone heading overseas when they "shouldn't" doesn't mean that others should be able to do the same. They would argue that the trip shouldn't have happened.

Whereas my view is that this trip should have happened and there should be a clear roadmap for family reunion trips with home quarantine on return to be allowed to the UK by the end of the 2021 calendar year unless there's a huge spike in deaths in hospitalisations and deaths in the U.K.
 
I'm not convinced. I think that for a lot of the population someone heading overseas when they "shouldn't" doesn't mean that others should be able to do the same. They would argue that the trip shouldn't have happened.

Whereas my view is that this trip should have happened and there should be a clear roadmap for family reunion trips with home quarantine on return to be allowed to the UK by the end of the 2021 calendar year unless there's a huge spike in deaths in hospitalisations and deaths in the U.K.

Not so much that the PM 'shouldn't go - I think one of the comments was that Aussies can't go overseas because it is too unsafe... that we will catch covid. Yet there's the PM, no mask, no social distancing. So how can it be unsafe?
 
Not so much that the PM 'shouldn't go - I think one of the comments was that Aussies can't go overseas because it is too unsafe... that we will catch covid. Yet there's the PM, no mask, no social distancing. So how can it be unsafe?
I agree with you, however outside the AFF bubble, I think a lot of people will think differently. I think a lot of the people would take this as a "role model" doing the wrong thing going not only by going overseas and not taking "sensible precautions" whilst over there doesn't mean that others should be allowed to go and do it too.

The argument is not that we will all catch COVID but that some will and if 0.1% of those heading overseas catch it and bring it back, that's 1 in a 1000 chance and if some of those spread it to others in a quarantine hotel it could leak back into the community and we could end up in lockdown again, or maybe people get hospitalised and die.

I think the risk level is acceptable now (or at the very least by the end of the year) to let vaccinated travellers go to the UK and home quarantine on return, but clearly those in charge disagree.
 
This is exactly what the PM is doing. Isn’t he in charge? It is ‘do as I say’ not ‘do as I do’.
His travel is an exception not a blanket change in restrictions.

Meeting the UK PM and US President and finalising the FTA with the UK are significant reasons for an exemption.
 

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