Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

I'm in the same boat as many, I'm desperate to come home and visit my family in Australia. My Mum asks me every few months when I'm coming back (I'm in the UK currently). The issue is, from everything I read and see outside of this forum, most people seem completely fine with the government locking borders and have no issues with borders being closed for the foreseeable future, which infuriates me at times. Just because expats choose to live outside of Australia, it doesn't make us any less Australian than those inside the country.

And there is no doubt in my mind at all that federal and state governments don't care about the Aussies abroad, whether they are stranded or just want to come home for a visit. The travel sector in Australia, aviation companies and all those that rely on travel will be in trouble very very soon and people are asleep at the wheel. Everywhere else outside of Australia and NZ appear to have a strategy of how borders will open up where their borders are closed currently. Countries are slowly making it clear that once fully vaccinated, you can enter with no quarantine.

People need a clear strategy, a forward plan. And this plan can be contingent on factors happening. Why is it so difficult for the government to say that if vaccines prove to be about 80% effective against hospitalisations and say 95% against deaths, reduce transmission significantly, we will open borders to all those that want to come in and have been fully vaccinated, after the whole population in Australia is fully vaccinated?
I understand it's not exactly this simple - but shouldn't the experts, scientists have this plan in place now? They can still have caveats (like issues with other strains etc) - but why is this strategy not in place now??? Vaccinations have started and they expect to have the whole population done in about 7-8 months. Businesses need that forward time to plan. It's just head scratching.
Bravo @hb13, exactly how I feel. You couldn’t have put it any better. ❤️
 
Sorry to be blunt, but if an Aussie working abroad were coming back for say 4 weeks or more (with two weeks in mandatory quarantine), you can still leave without issue as you permanently reside outside Australia.

There are some on this forum that have done that already.

There is no guarantee a ‘fully’ vaccinated country will be considered a green country to avoid mandatory paid quarantine, or anything else more palatable this side of Christmas.
Yes but one of the biggest issues is the actual ability to come back - flights are very hard to get and very expensive and quarantine costs a lot too and takes up
2 weeks. It’s actually very hard for people employed overseas to get 3-4 weeks off, plus many also have to quarantine on return. Employers not keen on approving that amount of leave at the best of times, but being repeatedly asked to approve leave for flights that get cancelled and rescheduled many times is just not happening. Not to mention Dan “they can only come home for priority compassionate reasons”. It’s hard.
 
Yes but one of the biggest issues is the actual ability to come back - flights are very hard to get and very expensive and quarantine costs a lot too and takes up
2 weeks. It’s actually very hard for people employed overseas to get 3-4 weeks off, plus many also have to quarantine on return. Employers not keen on approving that amount of leave at the best of times, but being repeatedly asked to approve leave for flights that get cancelled and rescheduled many times is just not happening. Not to mention Dan “they can only come home for priority compassionate reasons”. It’s hard.
Well it might be better to attribute ‘blame’ appropriately. If you have added quarantine on return, then blame the departure country. If you have quarantine in Australia blame Australia/the Australian States.

Flights have been bought with award booking and madrooster has recently seen flights from Europe I think from $3000 (ie one way) and even set out quite carefully which flights you are less likely to be bumped off. Another got a flight at $2500 mark.

I don’t know what the price of flight back to say Europe are but you would have thought a bit cheaper if you take the view there are less capacity constraints.

UK has set a possible reopening of international flights at mid-May I believe if all goes well and it doesn’t seem to be based on vaccination progress. And I’m not sure what they have said re: red countries.
 
Well it might be better to attribute ‘blame’ appropriately. If you have added quarantine on return, then blame the departure country. If you have quarantine in Australia blame Australia/the Australian States.

Flights have been bought with award booking and madrooster has recently seen flights from Europe I think from $3000 (ie one way) and even set out quite carefully which flights you are less likely to be bumped off. Another got a flight at $2500 mark.

I don’t know what the price of flight back to say Europe are but you would have thought a bit cheaper if you take the view there are less capacity constraints.

UK has set a possible reopening of international flights at mid-May I believe if all goes well and it doesn’t seem to be based on vaccination progress. And I’m not sure what they have said re: red countries.
Firstly I’m talking about travel from the UAE. Secondly I actually don’t want to “blame” anyone. The point is that after a full year of this we need a much better system for allowing citizens to exercise their right to come to Australia. And that is not possible in reality for many people despite what you say. I know from first hand experience having looked at flights availability and costs are serious issued that prevent people from travelling.
 
Firstly I’m talking about travel from the UAE. Secondly I actually don’t want to “blame” anyone. The point is that after a full year of this we need a much better system for allowing citizens to exercise their right to come to Australia. And that is not possible in reality for many people despite what you say. I know from first hand experience having looked at flights availability and costs are serious issued that prevent people from travelling.
We can agree to disagree but it’s a bit unfair to say the international community had a full year to plan when most people regard vaccination as the main marker for opening up. Vaccines anywhere in the world started in December. It takes time to properly see even short-term outcomes.
 
Well it might be better to attribute ‘blame’ appropriately. If you have added quarantine on return, then blame the departure country. If you have quarantine in Australia blame Australia/the Australian States.

Flights have been bought with award booking and madrooster has recently seen flights from Europe I think from $3000 (ie one way) and even set out quite carefully which flights you are less likely to be bumped off. Another got a flight at $2500 mark.

I don’t know what the price of flight back to say Europe are but you would have thought a bit cheaper if you take the view there are less capacity constraints.

UK has set a possible reopening of international flights at mid-May I believe if all goes well and it doesn’t seem to be based on vaccination progress. And I’m not sure what they have said re: red countries.
Let's try to be clear on terminology here though, international flights are not 'closed' here in the UK. I think what you're referring to in the UK is that we may be able to legally travel, under "non-essential" reasons as a result of lockdown measures being lifted.

The red countries / hotel quarantine is a different kettle of fish.
 
Let's try to be clear on terminology here though, international flights are not 'closed' here in the UK. I think what you're referring to in the UK is that we may be able to legally travel, under "non-essential" reasons as a result of lockdown measures being lifted.

The red countries / hotel quarantine is a different kettle of fish.
Yes that’s right.

The only additional point is that the Federal Government is pretty much hostage to the desire of Vic, Qld and SA wanting zero cases. Two parts of the ‘gold triangle’ - stifling the domestic economy. Even NSW that was happy with suppression has been forced into the search for zero. The Feds can’t wait for the day when covid numbers don’t matter, but they don’t control States. NSW will soon happily take flights (eg 60-80% vaccinated) but at the risk of a permanent state border closure. Don’t forget at AHPPC the Feds and NSW are outvoted there too
 
The Frequent Flyer Concierge team takes the hard work out of finding reward seat availability. Using their expert knowledge and specialised tools, they'll help you book a great trip that maximises the value for your points.

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

Just wondering what will happen if NSW put their foot down and say "We will only take in arrivals for NSW residents only"? 🤔
 
Just wondering what will happen if NSW put their foot down and say "We will only take in arrivals for NSW residents only"? 🤔

There would be very few people arriving in Sydney!!

Australian (and therefore NSW) residents are of course by and large not allowed to leave (unless in one of the specific exemption category). Those who remain overseas by now are most likely overseas residents (and not trapped holidayers). So how do you categorise an Australian that has lived overseas for 10 years? They could well have familial ties to one state but lived in a different state before leaving Australia, and there is no such thing as state citizenship.
 
There would be very few people arriving in Sydney!!

Australian (and therefore NSW) residents are of course by and large not allowed to leave (unless in one of the specific exemption category). Those who remain overseas by now are most likely overseas residents (and not trapped holidayers). So how do you categorise an Australian that has lived overseas for 10 years? They could well have familial ties to one state but lived in a different state before leaving Australia, and there is no such thing as state citizenship.
I might be naive here but ...Something like proof of residency in NSW e.g. NSW driver's licence, Council rates etc? Like how they check at border crossings?
 
I think that's what the government has been saying! The PM has said the risk profile will change once the vaccine has been rolled out. He's said we live with other viruses and the flu. He's said the relaxation of borders and the requirement for HQ won't be immediate, which is understandable. But six months is a long way away.

There'll be an element of education, but the majority of Aussies are aware of the impacts if covid gets into vulnerable populations. Once you remove that risk I think it will be a different discussion.

But there's more going on that just border restrictions for the aviation and travel sectors. News out of China today is that Aussie universities are not to be promoted. If that goes ahead i suspect Chinese tourists will face similar restrictions, or just not want to come. The Aussie tourism sector may need to pivot and be looking at other markets. (QF's exposure to China is pretty limited anyway.)

Where has the government said they have a plan or strategy? I'd like to see the proof of this.
 
Sponsored Post

Struggling to use your Frequent Flyer Points?

Frequent Flyer Concierge takes the hard work out of finding award availability and redeeming your frequent flyer or credit card points for flights.

Using their expert knowledge and specialised tools, the Frequent Flyer Concierge team at Frequent Flyer Concierge will help you book a great trip that maximises the value for your points.

Sorry to be blunt, but if an Aussie working abroad were coming back for say 4 weeks or more (with two weeks in mandatory quarantine), you can still leave without issue as you permanently reside outside Australia.

There are some on this forum that have done that already.

There is no guarantee a ‘fully’ vaccinated country will be considered a green country to avoid mandatory paid quarantine, or anything else more palatable this side of Christmas.

Here is the problem exactly. Some people can't afford to pay over 3k for hotel quarantine on top of an inflated premium ticket to come to Australia as well as take 2 weeks leave just to quarantine and then 2 weeks off.

If everyone thought like this, we have a much bigger problem.
 
Firstly I’m talking about travel from the UAE. Secondly I actually don’t want to “blame” anyone. The point is that after a full year of this we need a much better system for allowing citizens to exercise their right to come to Australia. And that is not possible in reality for many people despite what you say. I know from first hand experience having looked at flights availability and costs are serious issued that prevent people from travelling.

Exactly right. There is a better way to manage the risks, even without vaccines. But the Australian government doesn't want to hear it and is not interested in any solutions. Some people seem to be happy with this approach, likely those who are in the country and don't need to worry about spending north of $10k to visit family and loved ones.
 
I might be naive here but ...Something like proof of residency in NSW e.g. NSW driver's licence, Council rates etc? Like how they check at border crossings?

The point is that people who are most likely to be coming into Australia, by now, are not residents of Australia and by definition are not residents of any state either. Many may not own a property with attached council rates or if they do it is an investment property and has no bearing on where one is “rooted” to, and most likely will also have a foreign drivers license.

I’ll give an example of a colleague, an Australian citizen - his parents and siblings are all in NSW. He is resident of Singapore. Has a Singapore drivers licence. Before leaving Australia 11 years ago, he lived in Melbourne for 8 years. NSW is the end destination, to stay with elderly parents. But obviously not a NSW resident. Even if you based it on residency before departing those years ago, he was not considered a NSW resident then either.

Back 9-12 months ago when people were returning from short term trips, it may have made sense, but now the vast majority of arrivals are in all likelihood non-residents (residents can’t leave unless they get an exemption!), so restricting it to residents of the state they are arriving in, is likely to cut arrivals to a very small number - i.e those who left with exemptions.
 
Where has the government said they have a plan or strategy? I'd like to see the proof of this.

I think they have outlined their plan, they just haven't given a date? Which is probably fair enough at this point given the roll out has only just started.

Exactly right. There is a better way to manage the risks, even without vaccines. But the Australian government doesn't want to hear it and is not interested in any solutions. Some people seem to be happy with this approach, likely those who are in the country and don't need to worry about spending north of $10k to visit family and loved ones.

The Federal Court in the Palmer case considered the issue of border closures in terms of protecting the state. It found that without effective treatments, border closures were the most effective method. That would probably carry some weight when considering the Cth approach. What other options are there?

I don't know if everyone is 'happy' with the approach. But it is consistent. There borders aren't open for free movement either going out or coming in.
 
I think they have outlined their plan, they just haven't given a date? Which is probably fair enough at this point given the roll out has only just started.



The Federal Court in the Palmer case considered the issue of border closures in terms of protecting the state. It found that without effective treatments, border closures were the most effective method. That would probably carry some weight when considering the Cth approach. What other options are there?

I don't know if everyone is 'happy' with the approach. But it is consistent. There borders aren't open for free movement either going out or coming in.

Where is the plan? Can you point me to where it is, as clearly you have seen it? Where is the plan of what to do once the vaccination of all Australians is finished and their is sufficient proof of the vaccine's effectiveness in reducing severe disease and transmission?
 
I think they have outlined their plan, they just haven't given a date? Which is probably fair enough at this point given the roll out has only just started.



The Federal Court in the Palmer case considered the issue of border closures in terms of protecting the state. It found that without effective treatments, border closures were the most effective method. That would probably carry some weight when considering the Cth approach. What other options are there?

I don't know if everyone is 'happy' with the approach. But it is consistent. There borders aren't open for free movement either going out or coming in.
But the previous CMO and the current one have both said there is no need for border closures unless a definite declared hotspot and then only for the hotspot.
And any plans must have an indictave date to be of any use.
 
Where is the plan? Can you point me to where it is, as clearly you have seen it? Where is the plan of what to do once the vaccination of all Australians is finished and their is sufficient proof of the vaccine's effectiveness in reducing severe disease and transmission?

Agree there's no date. But I think this is going to be an ongoing campaign. The first hurdle is getting the vaccine program up and running. The next is trying to get as many people as we can vaccinated... and there's a vocal sector against vaccination. The rally outside the Fed minister's office was calling it 'poison', and 'punishment' if people do not get the vaccine.

The PM is beginning the conversation about a change in risk. And saying that is likely by the end of the year. Importantly, looking at the Biosecurity Act, the question is how much longer can it be invoked once the population is vaccinated? I don't know if an exact date could be reasonably given as of today.

But the previous CMO and the current one have both said there is no need for border closures unless a definite declared hotspot and then only for the hotspot.
And any plans must have an indictave date to be of any use.

CMOs may have said that, but they don't trump the Federal Court.
 
Saw an article in Daily Fail today, of the 30k returning to Oz in December 11k were visitors. So much for locked borders. I haven't seen anything that constitutes a plan. It seems to be more of a general vibe with ever changing fluff as to what is the plan for reopening.

Agree with @dajop drivers licence is not indicative of actual state of residence for expats. We both hold NT DLs but have not lived there for a long time and only lived there briefly and had no intention of returning there but I guess for all intents and purposes would be counted as NT residents.
 
But the Federal Court didn't hear their evidence as the Commonwealth had pulled out of the case.
And sorry although the courts have ultimate power they are not the best when it comes to medical matters. I still regard Prof Kelly more than the Federal Court.
 
Back
Top