Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Understandably, given the tourist travel ban, don’t see anybody factoring in propensity to travel and the risk/fear factors, as well as the other post-covid travel difficulties. Even in countries where travel has been relatively less impacted, international travel last year was down by 2/3 to ¾.

COVID-19's Crushing Impact On International Tourism

cheers skip
 
Well Prod.Kelly is the CMO now and is an epidemiologist specialising in virus pandemics so he is the one I believe.
Prof Murphy is an excellent physician but is a nephrologist.When CMO he had several deputies including Prof. Kelly to bring him up to speed on Covid.
 
Yeah... Prof Kelley presser via ABC news... words now along the lines of 'the first vaccines will not change everything', but 'the rollout should see us return to some sort of normal through 2021'.

Also the PM and Deputy PM along the same lines. They'll be looking at the evidence on a rolling basis.
 
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And now today, talk of international bubbles and CHO Prof Kelly stating the vaccine rollout will be crucial to reopening borders for international travel! Australia coronavirus updates, Gladys Berejiklian border clash, health minister's COVID-19 warning (second story on the list, although it might get moved at some stage)

Prof Murphy: vaccine does not = travel
Prof Kelley: vaccine = travel

🤷‍♂️
Didn't Prof Murphy put a rider on his claims that he can only foresee the next 3 months anyway?
 
And now today, talk of international bubbles and CHO Prof Kelly stating the vaccine rollout will be crucial to reopening borders for international travel! Australia coronavirus updates, Gladys Berejiklian border clash, health minister's COVID-19 warning (second story on the list, although it might get moved at some stage)

Prof Murphy: vaccine does not = travel
Prof Kelley: vaccine = travel

🤷‍♂️
Some positivity to counter the 'no travel to 2023' brigade. Gives me some hope.
 
Didn't Prof Murphy put a rider on his claims that he can only foresee the next 3 months anyway?

he did! But that bit was overlooked by the '2023 brigade' (thanks to oznflfan for that one!)

Qantas may be a bit optimistic with July, but September is looking much better.
 
it just seems all so simple

once those that want the vaccine have it we move from situation A to situation B

Situation A
There is a virus, it might kill you, it might kill the ones you love, it might spread everywhere

Situation B
There is a virus, if you get it you'll shrug it off fairly quickly, your loved ones if you pass it on (wait and see if still transmissable) then they'll shrug it off fairly quickly

One of these situations is just and i mean JUST enough to close international borders with people going mental

One of them is fricken not, once those jabs are in folk, its situation B, make no mistake.
 
it just seems all so simple

once those that want the vaccine have it we move from situation A to situation B

Situation A
There is a virus, it might kill you, it might kill the ones you love, it might spread everywhere

Situation B
There is a virus, if you get it you'll shrug it off fairly quickly, your loved ones if you pass it on (wait and see if still transmissable) then they'll shrug it off fairly quickly

One of these situations is just and i mean JUST enough to close international borders with people going mental

One of them is fricken not, once those jabs are in folk, its situation B, make no mistake.

And all of it depends how quickly this happens and aligns with the federal election of course :)
 
Also the PM and Deputy PM along the same lines. They'll be looking at the evidence on a rolling basis.
Pretty much QED about the ability of politicians to sucker people.

Meanwhile they're somewhat less inclined to string other governments along.

I look forward to the October trip report.
 
Pretty much QED about the ability of politicians to sucker people.

Meanwhile they're somewhat less inclined to string other governments along.

I look forward to the October trip report.

At this point in time it's looking less likely that the conditions to extend the travel ban under the Biosecurity Act are going to exist come September. That's a hurdle the government would need to overcome. Of course things may change as the data comes in.

As for future travel plans, they are what they are. If we can travel that's great, I got a super deal. If not, I get a refund.
 
Spain and Greece following the Seychelles yesterday looking to allow travel for vaccinated passengers, current vaccinations about 40,000,000 current vaccinations in Aus: 0.

yup, really pulling out all the stops and doing the worlds best response to covid there guys, heading to bed can someone pull the rock we are all hiding under a little bit further over me to block out the light.

Cheers

 
Spain and Greece following the Seychelles yesterday looking to allow travel for vaccinated passengers, current vaccinations about 40,000,000 current vaccinations in Aus: 0.

yup, really pulling out all the stops and doing the worlds best response to covid there guys, heading to bed can someone pull the rock we are all hiding under a little bit further over me to block out the light.

Cheers

Spain and Greece's economies so reliant on tourism so they have to do something.

Every night you go to sleep you wake up one day closer to getting what you want. AFR story on Scott Morrison positive. Still think best case scenario for very limited areas overseas trips September 2021, but more widespread travel March 2022.

1611145686414.png.
 
Well... one reason may be that they can no longer justify quarantine. If we look at the reason why we have quarantine, it's to stop severe illness or death if the virus hits vulnerable populations. If the vaccines work as the CHO says, that risk will drop to a reasonable/acceptable level.

The Cth originally outlined that all of Australia would be vaccinated by the end of October. They've now advised the vaccination program wil start a good six weeks earlier than planned, so that should give an end date of mid September rather than the end of October. And those at the end will be low risk anyway.

So that time - mid September - fits nicely with the date they need to decide whether to extend the emergency ban on departures/arrivals. So September at this stage is looking reasonable IMO.
So slow, what a disgrace. Israel is doing it faster. The existing regular flu shot method was a disaster.

Suggestion for Australia , I am taking liberties here:-
Vaccination Centre set up at local Synagogue. I believe even the Sabbath would be ok(medical emergency), and plenty of doctors/GP's at hand. The orthodox have to walk it anyway.
St Mary's. Catholics can join in too, and the collection plate will be heavier.
Church goers are reliable and likely an older more aged group. Lots of catholic GP's.
Set one up at a busy central train station. Control the workload by age, and day of week you were born on - those those who see it and miss out, will be more eager the next day..

Now the irresponsible youngsters. Put on a rolling concert in the park. Entrance fee is medicare card and the jab on entry, limited numbers on some 'like'. The USA is using football and basketball stadiums.
And one at the Airports - anyone with any airport business needs a jab.
Premium city carparks another good location, when below 60 comes up.

I can see the groupthink will be to fill in a form, and sign away medical responsibility form first.
Wrong. This administrative BS means poorer herd coverage.
 
Israel is finding that a single shot of the Pfizer vaccine is significantly less effective than first projected:


They are seeing around 33% effectiveness vs the 52% anticipated after the first shot. This doesn't bode well for the single shot regimens that the UK and US have been experimenting with.
 
What I'm confused about is why Israel's cases and deaths are continuing to rise rapidly, even though approx. 34% of their population is vaccinated. In fact their 7-day average for deaths is at its highest point ever now. Does anyone have any ideas as to why?

I know it takes about 2 weeks for the vaccine protection to 'kick-in' - but two weeks ago Israel had 18% of its population vaccinated, so I'm just wondering what is going on.
 
What I'm confused about is why Israel's cases and deaths are continuing to rise rapidly, even though approx. 34% of their population is vaccinated. In fact their 7-day average for deaths is at its highest point ever now. Does anyone have any ideas as to why?

I know it takes about 2 weeks for the vaccine protection to 'kick-in' - but two weeks ago Israel had 18% of its population vaccinated, so I'm just wondering what is going on.

I thought it was actually longer than 14 days? More like 28? Also posted by 33kft that israel is reporting the single dose may be less effective than originally claimed. .
 
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