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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

oznflfan

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Apr 15, 2020
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You buggers far too pessimistic. So many changes in last 4 months, imagine the changes in the next 16 months. FOR SURE International travel in 2021, without a doubt. Maybe not everywhere and not very beginning of 2021, but I would be very surprised if we can't travel to the many (less COVID than us) SE Asian countries by mid next year. Dollars always win out over everything else, even health. Mark my words.

Tempted to book a week holiday to KL or Kuching for April school holidays, it will brighten my spirits knowing booked so I can look forward to that. Can press back to July school holidays worst case. Freezing cold here now so good to chase the sun.

Glass half full people.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Apr 27, 2005
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But how? The borders are closed due to Coronavirus and Hong Kong is having some outbreaks as well.

I think these visas should allow Hong Kongers to apply and wait until Coronavirus is over then give them a deadline to come over.
This is one of those things. China could move to impose exit permits at any time. Any offer by Australia or other countries could then become nothing more than an empty gesture. I'd hate to see that as an outcome simply because of CV-19. There are alternatives... like Rottnest for example.
 

Gremlin

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Was just on the news they will continue to work on it.

We can chew gum and walk at the same time thankfully!

Will be a good step to start up the university sector up again.
Apparently we can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Just announced that the Safe Passage Student Return program has been postponed until there is "a clearer picture around the COVID trajectory."
 

jakeseven7

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Sep 9, 2005
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Apparently we can't walk and chew gum at the same time. Just announced that the Safe Passage Student Return program has been postponed until there is "a clearer picture around the COVID trajectory."
How disappointing but predictable
 

CityRail

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Looking at the mood of the public and the politicians, even though it's hard to predict the future, I'm thinking end of 2021, or later, is looking more likely now than it was 4 weeks ago.
I think travel in 2020 will be quite unlikely, but if end of 2021 for travel resumption then that means Olympics 2020 will be cancelled due to Coronavirus pandemic. I think with the current efforts of a vaccine, unless things failed miserably, I hope we can see some travel resumption by Chinese New Year in 2021.
 

CityRail

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This is one of those things. China could move to impose exit permits at any time. Any offer by Australia or other countries could then become nothing more than an empty gesture. I'd hate to see that as an outcome simply because of CV-19. There are alternatives... like Rottnest for example.
I recall that under Basic Law there is freedom for Hong Kongers to enter and exit the country freely unless you are a suspect of a crime. I don't think majority of HKers are criminals and such scheme will be severely affect international trust on China.
 

oznflfan

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Apr 15, 2020
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I recall that under Basic Law there is freedom for Hong Kongers to enter and exit the country freely unless you are a suspect of a crime. I don't think majority of HKers are criminals and such scheme will be severely affect international trust on China.
Except China owns HK and can do whatever they want, whenever they want. Sad but true.

Within next decade or so will just be one whole Shenzhen Hong Kong megapolis all under the same rule. Again sad but true.
 
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oznflfan

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Apr 15, 2020
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I think travel in 2020 will be quite unlikely, but if end of 2021 for travel resumption then that means Olympics 2020 will be cancelled due to Coronavirus pandemic. I think with the current efforts of a vaccine, unless things failed miserably, I hope we can see some travel resumption by Chinese New Year in 2021.
Will be no vaccine in 2021 nor 2022 nor 2023, but COVID treatments, tests and diagnosing will get better. I'd love to see travel start Chinese New Year and it may start then. If not will be sometime by mid year though.
 

jellybelly

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Apr 20, 2014
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Dont want to sound pessimistic but Im saying international mid 2022. Domestic by late 2021. There will not be a vaccine, only treatment.
 

oznflfan

Junior Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2020
Messages
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Dont want to sound pessimistic but Im saying international mid 2022. Domestic by late 2021. There will not be a vaccine, only treatment.
In one way this works as planning a trip with (will be 16 year old) son to Germany/Poland/Wales in school holidays July 2022. I will however go nuts if I can't have my quasi annual get away/hideaway from the world trip somewhere in SE Asia in next 12 months. Thinking simple, KL/Penang.
 

jakeseven7

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Sep 9, 2005
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Domestic is already up and running so not sure of your parameters here. We are flying out next month to Qld with no restrictions expected.
Lets be honest domestic is only patchy running with our largest busiest routes on ice with Victoria in stage 3 restrictions for a period.

Looking forward to seeing the results of the high court case starting on Monday so we all have clarity in who can do what, when moving forward. Will be interesting.
 

Pushka

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Lets be honest domestic is only patchy running with our largest busiest routes on ice with Victoria in stage 3 restrictions for a period.

Looking forward to seeing the results of the high court case starting on Monday so we all have clarity in who can do what, when moving forward. Will be interesting.
I think Victoria killed off any opportunity to be honest. A constitutional lawyer a few weeks ago from UniNSW said there was a case for closure at the commencement of the pandemic but the court would need to decide when the risk had subsided. The last week in Victoria slammed that door shut.
 

jakeseven7

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I think Victoria killed off any opportunity to be honest. A constitutional lawyer a few weeks ago from UniNSW said there was a case for closure at the commencement of the pandemic but the court would need to decide when the risk had subsided. The last week in Victoria slammed that door shut.
The unfortunate situation in Victoria certainly will play into it I suppose.

But we also can't have trigger happy premiers blocking a state at their discretion because of 3 cases or staying shut until 6 weeks of zero community transmission in a state (impossible). Hopefully they can find some balance.
 

Gremlin

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Mar 5, 2010
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How disappointing but predictable
Nick Coatsworth talked about the postponement of the Safe Passage Student Return program in the CMO update yesterday. Apparently the AHPPC wasn't asked for advice on the issue, but they were universally in agreement. He cited quarantine capacity as one of the major issues with continuing with the program at the moment.
 

jakeseven7

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Sep 9, 2005
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Nick Coatsworth talked about the postponement of the Safe Passage Student Return program in the CMO update yesterday. Apparently the AHPPC wasn't asked for advice on the issue, but they were universally in agreement. He cited quarantine capacity as one of the major issues with continuing with the program at the moment.
I'd love to understand more about the capacity issue because everyone is using it as a dead end answer....

Is it public health staff and ADF/police capacity issue? Because it is definitely not a physical infrastructure capacity issue!
 

jase05

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Because it is definitely not a physical infrastructure capacity issue!
Can the government forcibly take over hotels?
I’d imagine plenty of hotels don’t want to be a part of the process so capacity could be an issue if not enough hotels are onboard.
At a guess though I’d presume staffing is more the issue
 

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