Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

N860CR

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The only thing that quarantine would potentially do is isolate a new variant coming in.

How many variants have we had so far? 5 I think? Each of them covered by existing vaccinations. WHO estimates suggest that over 2 billion people have been “infected”, so roughly a quarter of the worlds population. Now let’s extrapolate that and workout the risk of an international arrival importing a new and undiscovered “variant”.

We’d be better off closing the borders to prevent the importation of terrorists, as that would be a significantly higher risk.
 

roogirl

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SQ has been flying plenty of empty flights to all sorts of places. They (had) a very strong Asian network, and most "major destinations" in Asia have faced severe restrictions not terribly unlike Australia and NZ (different but with similar effect). The western-centric media only focusses on Europe and US, the rest of the world doesn't count to them when comparing travel restrictions. When people say "Australia" is the only place in the world, they really mean the only place in the western world.
When people say australia is the only place in the world they are usually referring to it in the context of banning citizens and PRs from leaving/returning. To my knowledge most of Asia hasn’t done that eg you can get back into singapore, HK tho you have to quarantine - caps aren’t a problem. Ditto you can leave if you want!
 

Mattg

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I've mentioned this before, but there's a whole heap of airlines that don't need to "refly" or restart routes. They simply open up inventory on current flights operating with 10 pax only or as freight only. There are aircraft with approximately 18,500 seats flying into Sydney every week. Some carriers (eg SQ ) are also still operating some off their "cancelled" flights - just not selling to or carrying passengers on those flights.

Other airlines, who knows. I am sure EK, SQ and QR could gear up to add more flights relatively quickly if the demand is there. The government supported connecting carriers have not been sitting idle, they've been flying empty planes all around the world so they are ready to ramp up when they can.

Yep. And frankly, airlines like SQ, EK etc. should. be rewarded for maintaining services to Australia this whole time.
 
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jakeseven7

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The only thing that quarantine would potentially do is isolate a new variant coming in.

They won’t be doing this unless ts a variant of concern that breaks through the vaccines at very high rate and also is a severe risk to the general population when it does so.
 
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jakeseven7

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The AU Gov App is out….

*Downloads to prepare*

——

New app to scan QR code vaccination certificates for international travel​


Australia is a step closer to reopening its international borders with a new iPhone application allowing border officials to read QR code vaccination certificates.

The app, which appeared on the Apple store this week, gives Australian officials the ability to scan international vaccination certificates once they become available within days.

A meeting of the national security committee of cabinet will also meet on Wednesday to discuss further details on how to reopen the country’s international borders in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

The federal government will start issuing international COVID-19 vaccination certificates from October 1 and is also in talks with other countries to work out which vaccines will be recognised in international travel bubble arrangements.

A federal ban on Australians leaving the country will be dropped as soon as November.

 

MEL_Traveller

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When people say australia is the only place in the world they are usually referring to it in the context of banning citizens and PRs from leaving/returning. To my knowledge most of Asia hasn’t done that eg you can get back into singapore, HK tho you have to quarantine - caps aren’t a problem. Ditto you can leave if you want!
Was watching a program last night and one of the hosts, from NZ, showed a screenshot that while not banned from returning, they were 22450 in the queue for approved hotel quarantine. Almost the same?

How many variants have we had so far? 5 I think? Each of them covered by existing vaccinations. WHO estimates suggest that over 2 billion people have been “infected”, so roughly a quarter of the worlds population. Now let’s extrapolate that and workout the risk of an international arrival importing a new and undiscovered “variant”.

We’d be better off closing the borders to prevent the importation of terrorists, as that would be a significantly higher risk.

Not necessarily an 'unknown' variant, but one which might be emerging and we don't know the effectiveness of existing vaccines. We'd already have data on those infected by existing variants in Australia.
 

Pom-DownUnder

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Not necessarily an 'unknown' variant, but one which might be emerging and we don't know the effectiveness of existing vaccines. We'd already have data on those infected by existing variants in Australia.
We have danced this dance before Mel, the slim margin chance of megavariant appearing before its publically known is not enough to deny peoples rights.
 

jb747

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Flights simply won't become commercially viable whilst there is any form of quarantine, or uncertainty regarding government behaviour. Yes, there will be a rush of pent up demand, but that will barely last long enough for the airlines to warm up a couple of aircraft. Some airlines have kept going at a reasonable scale, but they're basically extensions of their governments.
 

ayushamity

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Yes, there will be a rush of pent up demand, but that will barely last long enough for the airlines to warm up a couple of aircraft.

Do you guys think that anyone who wants to come to Australia in November will find space? Or will it be a repetitive case of getting bumped off flights and flights cancelled etc.
 

MEL_Traveller

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We have danced this dance before Mel, the slim margin chance of megavariant appearing before its publically known is not enough to deny peoples rights.

It's not a case of a variant coming in before it is known. It could be an emerging variant - for example one that's been around for a couple weeks or so. Having to introduce quarantine at short notice if people aren't prepared could be problematic.
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Flights simply won't become commercially viable whilst there is any form of quarantine, or uncertainty regarding government behaviour. Yes, there will be a rush of pent up demand, but that will barely last long enough for the airlines to warm up a couple of aircraft. Some airlines have kept going at a reasonable scale, but they're basically extensions of their governments.

Personally I wouldn't see two, five or seven day's home quarantine being a deal breaker for international travel. It could be that people need to home Q for two days pending a negative test.
 
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dajop

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On the other hand a new variant might emerge which although more infectious is far less likely to cause severe disease and hospitalisations.At that stage the best move would be to open up and have it crowd out the delta variant.

Natural selection, right? Fingers crossed that this will eventually happen. And then the Covid deniers will be able say "see we're right - it was all just a big conspiracy" ;):p
 

Telemachus

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New app to scan QR code vaccination certificates for international travel​


Australia is a step closer to reopening its international borders with a new iPhone application allowing border officials to read QR code vaccination certificates.

The app, which appeared on the Apple store this week, gives Australian officials the ability to scan international vaccination certificates once they become available within days.

This is quite encouraging up to a point. One could be sceptical and say the release of the app doesn’t mean the whole of the underlying architecture is necessarily coming as soon as October but it is welcome news that the international digital vaccination certificates will start becoming available on 1 October (previously announced as ‘from October’).

The international vaccination certificate and the Digital Passenger Declaration are the first components in Home Affairs’ Permissions Capability mega-project which has a full scope that might be termed ‘courageous’. If all is on track for these first modules and the base capability then it should work fine for those of us with vaccination recorded in the AIR and we can depart confident that we will be recognised as vaccinated when processed on return. It will be part of overseas pre-departure clearance for Australian immigration, along with other travel documentation, so there ought to be minimal burden/delay imposed on carriers or on pax on arrival.

But, as per the concerns from BARA reported in other articles today, what about the tens of thousands of Australians overseas who are vaccinated but don’t have an AIR entry? The Age/SMH piece about the Apple app says ‘future updates will authenticate certificates issued by other countries’ but there is no mention of when. This is a critical dependency for avoiding overseas-vaccinated Australians being directed on arrival back here into hotel quarantine – as though they were unvaccinated – with undesirable pressure on whatever the new cap for unvaccinated arrivals turns out to be.

The relevant page on the Services Australia site (How to add immunisations you’ve had overseas to the Australian Immunisation Register (AIR)) seems to offer a path to Australians overseas to get their vaccinations entered in the AIR, and thus qualify for an Australian certificate, but it can only be done from within Australia….
 

OATEK

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This is quite encouraging up to a point. One could be sceptical and say the release of the app doesn’t mean the whole of the underlying architecture is necessarily coming as soon as October but it is welcome news that the international digital vaccination certificates will start becoming available on 1 October (previously announced as ‘from October’).

The international vaccination certificate and the Digital Passenger Declaration are the first components in Home Affairs’ Permissions Capability mega-project which has a full scope that might be termed ‘courageous’. If all is on track for these first modules and the base capability then it should work fine for those of us with vaccination recorded in the AIR and we can depart confident that we will be recognised as vaccinated when processed on return. It will be part of overseas pre-departure clearance for Australian immigration, along with other travel documentation, so there ought to be minimal burden/delay imposed on carriers or on pax on arrival.

But, as per the concerns from BARA reported in other articles today, what about the tens of thousands of Australians overseas who are vaccinated but don’t have an AIR entry? The Age/SMH piece about the Apple app says ‘future updates will authenticate certificates issued by other countries’ but there is no mention of when. This is a critical dependency for avoiding overseas-vaccinated Australians being directed on arrival back here into hotel quarantine – as though they were unvaccinated – with undesirable pressure on whatever the new cap for unvaccinated arrivals turns out to be.

The relevant page on the Services Australia site (How to add immunisations you’ve had overseas to the Australian Immunisation Register (AIR)) seems to offer a path to Australians overseas to get their vaccinations entered in the AIR, and thus qualify for an Australian certificate, but it can only be done from within Australia….
Patience grasshopper!
 

mviy

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Do you guys think that anyone who wants to come to Australia in November will find space? Or will it be a repetitive case of getting bumped off flights and flights cancelled etc.
Increased hotel quarantine caps may help those able to book business or first, but if you want to book economy then it'll still be extremely difficult until both uncapped (or very large cap) home quarantine is in place and you're eligible to do home quarantine.
 

roogirl

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Increased hotel quarantine caps may help those able to book business or first, but if you want to book economy then it'll still be extremely difficult until both uncapped (or very large cap) home quarantine is in place and you're eligible to do home quarantine.
It’s a bit of a sleight of hand - spinning NSW returning to the pre delta caps as some kind of open border. It was impossible to get on a flight to aus from london pre delta for less than about £4K per economy seat, which is fine if you have £4K but most dont and of course zero tourists will pay that - but patience!
 

roogirl

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Was watching a program last night and one of the hosts, from NZ, showed a screenshot that while not banned from returning, they were 22450 in the queue for approved hotel quarantine. Almost the same?



Not necessarily an 'unknown' variant, but one which might be emerging and we don't know the effectiveness of existing vaccines. We'd already have data on those infected by existing variants in Australia.
Well no not the same because you have lots of people who are trapped inside and want to get out of Oz. I agree that MIQ is very suboptimal - but australia is still the only country with a travel ban.

And a new variant is absolutely no reason not to open up now (once vax rates are high enough). Stay in lockdown so we don’t have to lockdown…makes no logical sense at all.
 

MEL_Traveller

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Well no not the same because you have lots of people who are trapped inside and want to get out of Oz. I agree that MIQ is very suboptimal - but australia is still the only country with a travel ban.

And a new variant is absolutely no reason not to open up now (once vax rates are high enough). Stay in lockdown so we don’t have to lockdown…makes no logical sense at all.

I'd argue MIQ is the same as a cap. The TV host was able to come to Australia, but as an NZ citizen can't actually return due to the MIQ caps. Lots of people might want to leave Australia... but if you can't get back?
 

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