Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

Tiki

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60% of Qlders didn't even vote for her. Probably the ones who want to travel. Her supporters are very vocal on social media to keep borders closed. I suspect a lot of people are biding their time until Australia reaches 80%. The vulnerable populations over 70 are at 93.2% first dose, over 50 is 87.2% so we can expect them to be double dosed by end Oct. Surely it is enough to have the over 50's at 90% and rest at 80% minimum?
 

ethernet

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Qantas. Important point. We know 85% of NSW and ACT will be fully vaccinated +2 weeks reached by 1 December, trending to 90% plus.
There is NO reason not to stop outbound Aussies leaving now, as long as they promise not return till after the new year. If they can prove they are 1) Fully vaccinated, 2) Have proof of plenty of savings, incase things gum up, and accept the risk and potential cost of inbound quarantine (maybe they just cant set foot outside their LGA for 14 days) . 3) The country they are going to will accept them. 4) They have their own home/nonshared accom when they return.
You could be selling pointy end seats now, if your lobbying people got to work. Oh, you live in St Ives, Double Bay, Ku-ring-gai - good to go!

The flaw in my logic, is this would infuriate the well-heeled in WA and QLD, and diddums, it would be so unfair...

To upsell this idea, tell them a Qantas travel concierge will privately screen early travelers against conditions, and guarantee them a free standby flight home if needed. This way Scomo and family can resume their Hawaiian break.
 
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mviy

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60% of Qlders didn't even vote for her. Probably the ones who want to travel.
I'm not sure we can read much into that. Those primary votes are within the margin of error of what you'd expect with a Labor win. The TPP indicates what the majority wants in our system.

Like with other Premiers when the polling she does suggests a clear majority of the people want international travel back she'll start talking that up.
 

Pushka

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she wants to live in the past....I can not stand her....we all have to live with the virus end of story!
It's more than that but more an I'm alright Jack. Completely ignores those with relatives interstate and overseas but she gets to do her business at her whim. And if Qlders were so keen to only travel to Qld then why is their tourism sector dying!
 

ayushamity

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NSW has just confirmed that from 80% DD (Oct 17 forecast date), there will be no more international arrival caps into Sydney. So planes can go back to full capacity.

That should bring flight prices down slightly and avoid people being kicked off flights or cancelled flights.
 

roogirl

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NSW has just confirmed that from 80% DD (Oct 17 forecast date), there will be no more international arrival caps into Sydney. So planes can go back to full capacity.

That should bring flight prices down slightly and avoid people being kicked off flights or cancelled flights.
They will still be constrained by quarantine spaces though? Or will that flip to home quarantine at same time?

I am skeptical - right now there is not a single seat on a commercial flight to be had from London to Australia any time before feb 2022. And yesterday they released 3 DFAT flights for this month which all sold out in 11 minutes. And that’s just one country. There is so so so much demand, the utter silence on the actual arrangements for bringing all these extra people home in what could be a matter of weeks worries me greatly.

Plus of course if you don’t need to be in Sydney you are still screwed as at present you can’t get to your home if it happens to be in qld wa etc.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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NSW has just confirmed that from 80% DD (Oct 17 forecast date), there will be no more international arrival caps into Sydney. So planes can go back to full capacity.

That should bring flight prices down slightly and avoid people being kicked off flights or cancelled flights.
Source or news link?
 
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Jousams

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NSW has just confirmed that from 80% DD (Oct 17 forecast date), there will be no more international arrival caps into Sydney. So planes can go back to full capacity.

That should bring flight prices down slightly and avoid people being kicked off flights or cancelled flights.
Where is this coming from?
 

justinbrett

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Where is this coming from?
Gladys. Clearly explained today at the presser.

The feds say international travel starts when the national average gets to 80%, so might not be as quick as mid October - but won't be far off.

They will still be constrained by quarantine spaces though? Or will that flip to home quarantine at same time?

I am skeptical - right now there is not a single seat on a commercial flight to be had from London to Australia any time before feb 2022. And yesterday they released 3 DFAT flights for this month which all sold out in 11 minutes. And that’s just one country. There is so so so much demand, the utter silence on the actual arrangements for bringing all these extra people home in what could be a matter of weeks worries me greatly.

Plus of course if you don’t need to be in Sydney you are still screwed as at present you can’t get to your home if it happens to be in qld wa etc.
No. It will be home quarantine at worst. She called on Qantas to put on extra flights to get people home. She said people from overseas pose less risk than people in the community.

When you say not a single seat available - that's not a single seat for sale. Most of the flights are flying in empty. It's due to the HQ caps.

But yes, if you need to get to other states, you're gonna have some trouble. Still, for some, better to be in Australia and you can get welfare if you are desperate.
 
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Jousams

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Gladys. Clearly explained today at the presser.

The feds say international travel starts when the national average gets to 80%, so might not be as quick as mid October - but won't be far off.


No. It will be home quarantine at worst. She called on Qantas to put on extra flights to get people home. She said people from overseas pose less risk than people in the community.

When you say not a single seat available - that's not a single seat for sale. Most of the flights are flying in empty. It's due to the HQ caps.

But yes, if you need to get to other states, you're gonna have some trouble. Still, for some, better to be in Australia and you can get welfare if you are desperate.
That’s not what old mate said above.
 

hb13

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So is home quarantine beginning in NSW mid-October? Is that what we are hearing now for sure?
 

roogirl

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Gladys. Clearly explained today at the presser.

The feds say international travel starts when the national average gets to 80%, so might not be as quick as mid October - but won't be far off.


No. It will be home quarantine at worst. She called on Qantas to put on extra flights to get people home. She said people from overseas pose less risk than people in the community.

When you say not a single seat available - that's not a single seat for sale. Most of the flights are flying in empty. It's due to the HQ caps.

But yes, if you need to get to other states, you're gonna have some trouble. Still, for some, better to be in Australia and you can get welfare if you are desperate.
Correct, flights are flying empty. But airlines are also cancelling flights to optimise yield within the caps - I think ANA cancelled a bunch yesterday for example. I query why they would do that if on Oct 17 (which is c 3 weeks away) those capacity restrictions are released. There has clearly been no operational planning at all.
 

ayushamity

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Jeez. This thread moves fast.

Its not a news article yet but they leaked a tweet on twitter as soon as the crisis cabinet meeting finished this evening.

I am assuming home quarantine will only start early November when the trial finishes so realistically the effect on flight prices and cancellations improvement wont happen until then.

As for no flights becoming available, they literally announced it like at 6 PM. So give it a few days for Sydney bound flights to open bookings in November.

This is only for NSW though so only NSW will benefit from the abolished travel caps. State by State reopening remember.
 

HappyFlyerFamily

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As this comes to pass, I'm guessing the airlines won't be bothering to checking ultimate destination/residence of the inbound traveller. It will interesting what happens at the flow-on effect at the State border level and regional NSW.
 

justinbrett

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Correct, flights are flying empty. But airlines are also cancelling flights to optimise yield within the caps - I think ANA cancelled a bunch yesterday for example. I query why they would do that if on Oct 17 (which is c 3 weeks away) those capacity restrictions are released. There has clearly been no operational planning at all.

It's not October 17.

It's when the national average gets to 80% (see below). That won't be until mid November. And it doesn't necessarily have to start on day zero. Picnics didn't - it was nearly two weeks after. The 70% is the monday after. The fact that the trial is for the month of October is pretty obvious it won't start until the start of November at the earliest. Airlines will need advanced notice.

Its not a news article yet but they leaked a tweet on twitter as soon as the crisis cabinet meeting finished this evening.

Not so much a leak when Gladys confirmed it this morning in the presser. Only question was "when we get to 80%" - didn't specify if that is NSW or national, but the federal government control the international border and they've said the national average needs to get to 80%. Don't forget, NSW didn't want to half their caps earlier in the year but were rolled by the rest of national cabinet. They could however bump their caps up to what they were before the self imposed reduction (ie 1500 per week instead of 750).
 

hb13

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Jeez. This thread moves fast.

Its not a news article yet but they leaked a tweet on twitter as soon as the crisis cabinet meeting finished this evening.

I am assuming home quarantine will only start early November when the trial finishes so realistically the effect on flight prices and cancellations improvement wont happen until then.

As for no flights becoming available, they literally announced it like at 6 PM. So give it a few days for Sydney bound flights to open bookings in November.

This is only for NSW though so only NSW will benefit from the abolished travel caps. State by State reopening remember.

So are the caps being abolished on the 17th of October or start of November?
 

ethernet

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It's not October 17.

It's when the national average gets to 80% (see below). That won't be until mid November. And it doesn't necessarily have to start on day zero. Picnics didn't - it was nearly two weeks after. The 70% is the monday after. The fact that the trial is for the month of October is pretty obvious it won't start until the start of November at the earliest. Airlines will need advanced notice.



Not so much a leak when Gladys confirmed it this morning in the presser. Only question was "when we get to 80%" - didn't specify if that is NSW or national, but the federal government control the international border and they've said the national average needs to get to 80%. Don't forget, NSW didn't want to half their caps earlier in the year but were rolled by the rest of national cabinet. They could however bump their caps up to what they were before the self imposed reduction (ie 1500 per week instead of 750).
The feds can manipulate OS travel, as they sloth their way about international reciprocity. I see no need for the national average to reach 80% when, especially some states have covid Zero hard border restrictions.. I would also prioritise those who are AZ fully vaxxed as a 'Thank You'.

If I were the health minister, I would be quietly saying we need to sabotage NSW. If they go ahead, they will get first pick of imported GP's/Surgeons/Nurses/critical shortage people, and there will be none left for WA or the rest come Christmas. The tourism minister also has reasons to sabotage NSW, and the education sector.
 

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