Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

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VIC will allow fully vaccinated Victorians to return home from Sydney if willing to do 14 days of home quarantine.
Pathway For Vaccinated Victorians To Come Back Home | Premier of Victoria
I guess it's only a matter of time till they go a step further and do a trial of home quarantine for International arrivals. Unfortunately they are not using the home quarantine for those returning from interstate as an opportunity to trial what home quarantine for international arrivals will look like.

Given Vic has 700+ cases a day it's pretty scrappy concession. Vaccinated and pre-entry test with no quarantine should be acceptable. I suspect Andrews' is still secretly chasing Covid zero
 

mviy

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Accepting people back from SYD even under very onerous conditions is a positive sign that Victoria will hopefully allow international travel to resume later in the year albeit they will likely at least initially require a longer period of quarantine than we would like.
 

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Accepting people back from SYD even under very onerous conditions is a positive sign that Victoria will hopefully allow international travel to resume later in the year albeit they will likely at least initially require a longer period of quarantine than we would like.
Yep, so glad to be in NSW. I would easily accept 7 days home quarantine (noting its just a trial and subject to being expanded post 80% vax)
 

ayushamity

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According to the latest stats, NSW will reach 80% fully vaxxed by October 15th so in about 3 weeks, after which Gladys promised travel caps will be increased/gone.

It looks like we have to wait for a few weeks after 80% as the home quarantine trial only finishes end of October.
 

OATEK

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According to the latest stats, NSW will reach 80% fully vaxxed by October 15th so in about 3 weeks, after which Gladys promised travel caps will be increased/gone.

It looks like we have to wait for a few weeks after 80% as the home quarantine trial only finishes end of October.
Yes not long now. And I would rather be waiting for the bureaucracy to be catching up to the vaccination rate, than waiting for a slow vaccination rate to rise.
 

mviy

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If the first few weeks of the trial goes well and if vaccination rates are higher than they anticipated they could yet surprise and announce an expansion of the trial.
 

hb13

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If the first few weeks of the trial goes well and if vaccination rates are higher than they anticipated they could yet surprise and announce an expansion of the trial.
Expansion of the trial? Expand to what? The trial is scheduled to finish WELL after 80% is hit.
 

Jousams

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Expansion of the trial? Expand to what? The trial is scheduled to finish WELL after 80% is hit.
The trial HASNT EVEN STARTED. removal of border restrictions or expansion of the trial will be announced concurrently with ICAC hearings. Bet the house on it.

It’s the perfect distraction.
 

hb13

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Agree with you that there are multiple ducks to line up – at two levels of government and the industry – before outbound international travel is able to be confirmed and actually happen. There is a least a credible commitment to it in some quarters, which didn’t seem to be there until quite recently.

hb13 is right of course that it’s supposed to be triggered at 80% not after 80% (as part of the suite of Phase C measures so lots to roll out simultaneously) though none of us will be hugely surprised if there is delay either because enabling systems aren’t quite ready or because of some political impediment. It doesn’t help, to put it mildly, that states & territories are going to meet the 70% & 80% thresholds at very different points but the working assumption still is (isn’t it?) that the first jurisdictions at 80% will be able to restart outbound travel, in a limited way initially, once national 80% is reached, which will be very soon afterwards.

There is impeccable logic in the point that hb13 makes about more information about international travel being provided publicly in advance of 80% being reached. But an even earlier indicator ought to be government confirmation of the Phase B amendments to inbound international travel at 70%: this has gone ominously quiet despite that 70% point being achievable in not much more than a month – as I’ve commented in another post a few days ago.

I tend to agree that your March 2022 plans look safe, given what we think we know now, but we may not have anything like certainty until much nearer the implementation dates for unrestricted outbound and less restricted inbound travel.

Thanks for the kind words @Telemachus, even my family doesn't think I'm logical at times.

I want to add to this that the trial in Sydney is scheduled to finish a couple of weeks after the 80% is hit - which to me shows that 80% is likely not going to be the trigger, and they'll say they are waiting on trial "results".

Another important point, that I know everyone in this forum would understand - 3 months is a very short time in aviation. Airlines and airports need information right now about what is happening - and it seems like they have no clue, apart from maybe QF.
 

justinbrett

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Don't forget the international target is 80% both in state and national average - so will be early November at this stage.
 

twiningb

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They are very clearly not… but entitled to your own thoughts 😂
They aren't chasing COVIDZero in a literal sense, inasmuch as it has never been possible, but Andrews appears to be exercising the power the Victorian crossbenchers have allowed, and won't let it go.
 
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HappyFlyerFamily

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Morrison says 'no special deals' for Ashes

I take this as a good sign, partly that they understand patience for this rubbish is expired and partly that hopefully they are aiming for a more 'normal' by then.

could be wishful thinking on both parts tho.
By Xmas you would think Vic and NSW would have 7 days quarantine, so Xmas/NY reunion with players family should be under Normal rules
 

Telemachus

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Thanks for the kind words @Telemachus, even my family doesn't think I'm logical at times.

I want to add to this that the trial in Sydney is scheduled to finish a couple of weeks after the 80% is hit - which to me shows that 80% is likely not going to be the trigger, and they'll say they are waiting on trial "results".

Another important point, that I know everyone in this forum would understand - 3 months is a very short time in aviation. Airlines and airports need information right now about what is happening - and it seems like they have no clue, apart from maybe QF.
It is probable that the National Plan isn’t going to be implemented unamended in respect of the triggers for international travel, or at least if it is, then only with a delay of weeks after those thresholds have been passed by the relevant jurisdictions and nationally. The timelines for the precursor actions/systems just don’t add up at the moment for all Phase B (national 70%) changes to commence in late Oct/early Nov and all Phase C (national 80%) changes to be implemented in mid-late Nov.

The National Plan has so many caveats and get-out clauses that it will be a simple matter for governments to deflect any attempt to hold them to specifics. However, I’m optimistic that the Commonwealth will be moving heaven and earth to enable outbound international travel to restart before Xmas, and also to do something about the inbound caps. It will be politically very damaging to fall short on international travel and the PM continues to commit publicly to it. There is another consideration, that governments know a growing portion of the electorate and media has grasped the evident inconsistencies, lack of proportion and unsustainability in the international restrictions and the whole supporting infrastructure of exemptions, hotel quarantine etc.

So, a reasonable conclusion is that international travel (as per National Plan, with home quarantine) ought to be feasible by early-mid Dec, albeit some time after national 80% has been achieved. The project could fall over, however, for exactly the reason you mention i.e. failure to give the industry enough detail and certainty in a timely fashion. We just have to hope that public lobbying by the industry over the last week or so has galvanised the government into more engagement and disclosure in confidence.

Edit: Maybe the 70% and 80% national targets will be hit a little earlier than I've assumed above but that possibility only increases pressure on governments and industry. It’s all coming up faster than they anticipated so let's hope the work to get ready in time is more frantic than governments are conceding publicly.
 
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hb13

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This should give us some insight into what the government is thinking with regards to travel and how serious they are:

 

Pushka

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This should give us some insight into what the government is thinking with regards to travel and how serious they are:

They are wanting to fly unimpeded with family in early November before the targets have been reached. If they delayed until mid December then that would be a different story. And we know that won't happen.
 

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