Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

mviy

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Scale. All of these restrictions will stop airlines having any economy of scale. As such, they won't bother, or it will be extremely expensive.
Well they would provide more scale than now. It shouldn’t have to be completely open or what the situation is now. There should be something in-between before we get to 70 and 80 percent fully vaccinated.
 

MEL_Traveller

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That I don't know. I just know how they are checking.
I don't know what they're checking? Maybe for statistical purposes? As Pushka mentioned, NZ have said they don't have the legal power - or the will - to stop Aussies leaving for another country. They don't even stop their own citizens departing!

As for fines - the PM said they wouldn't use them for people coming in from India, so would they use them for this?
 

mviy

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What they are most likely to do is stop a second trip to “NZ” without an exemption to travel further afield.

So if you do seek to exploit a loophole you’d want to go for a while.
 

roogirl

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@Seat0B has your son checked in w the embassy? I know there are 6 DFAT flights going to Howard springs from london in august, and at least one from each of Istanbul and Frankfurt. There are often single business class seats available on those flights as they’re priced too high for properly vulnerable repatriates - might be worth a try? Also lots of cancellations as lots of people are booking repat AND commercial flights given all the uncertainty - totally the opposite effect of what’s intended. Good luck and I hope he makes it, it’s disgusting that all these hoops have to be jumped through.
 

jakeseven7

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@Seat0B has your son checked in w the embassy? I know there are 6 DFAT flights going to Howard springs from london in august, and at least one from each of Istanbul and Frankfurt. There are often single business class seats available on those flights as they’re priced too high for properly vulnerable repatriates - might be worth a try? Also lots of cancellations as lots of people are booking repat AND commercial flights given all the uncertainty - totally the opposite effect of what’s intended. Good luck and I hope he makes it, it’s disgusting that all these hoops have to be jumped through.

We have friends who are coming home from London on the repat flights too.
 

drron

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Personally I'm still thinking we will get to the 80% of eligible rate. Yes, probably slower and harder than some want but still doable. Just setting a target increases the chances it will be met.

And Israel has already vaccinated over 80% of adults, with the UK likely to do so next month or so, so it is doable and I don't have a lot of truck with the 'it cant be done' brigade. Not saying it will be easy and some will resist but that's where the carrot and stick will come into play. Freedom from lockdown will be one of the carrots but already others are starting to appear.
Absolutely agree we'll get to 80%.Even the flu vaccine in 2019 got to 71%.And the flu is a lot less scary than Covid.

However waiting until we get to 80% is ludicrous.As vaccination levels get higher then the harm caused by lockdowns and closed borders ends up being worse than the problems caused by opening up.Other countries have figured this out such as the USA.They are at ~60% fully vaccinated and ~70% for 1 dose.Add another 10% that are unvaccinated but have had covid and it becomes 70% and 80%.But here is what Dr.fauci says now-

Dr. Anthony Fauci warned Sunday that more “pain and suffering” is on the horizon as COVID-19 cases climb again and officials plead with unvaccinated Americans to get their shots.


Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, also said he doesn’t foresee additional lockdowns in the U.S. because he believes enough people are vaccinated to avoid a recurrence of last winter. However, he said not enough are inoculated to “crush the outbreak” at this point.

No more lockdowns,Americans already allowed to travel and even cruising from US ports has commenced.
 

Seat0B

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@Seat0B has your son checked in w the embassy? I know there are 6 DFAT flights going to Howard springs from london in august, and at least one from each of Istanbul and Frankfurt. There are often single business class seats available on those flights as they’re priced too high for properly vulnerable repatriates - might be worth a try? Also lots of cancellations as lots of people are booking repat AND commercial flights given all the uncertainty - totally the opposite effect of what’s intended. Good luck and I hope he makes it, it’s disgusting that all these hoops have to be jumped through.
Thanks @roogirl but he is not repatriating to Australia - just coming home here for a bit to do things that need doing and then will go back to his life in Dubai. So I don't think he could in conscience take one of these flights - but I will mention it to him. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
 

Pushka

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Thanks @roogirl but he is not repatriating to Australia - just coming home here for a bit to do things that need doing and then will go back to his life in Dubai. So I don't think he could in conscience take one of these flights - but I will mention it to him. Desperate times call for desperate measures.
People attending a recent wedding we were at in NSW told us they used a US repatriation flight into Howard Springs then flew back to US after the wedding.
 

MEL_Traveller

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What they are most likely to do is stop a second trip to “NZ” without an exemption to travel further afield.

So if you do seek to exploit a loophole you’d want to go for a while.

That might be a gamble people are willing to take - especially if the quarantine caps are likely to get abolished sometime soon after your first 'escape' via NZ. (For example use the NZ loophole in say Feb, get a warning on return to Australia in March, but the caps are scrapped in April after the election... or some variation on that)
 

roogirl

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People attending a recent wedding we were at in NSW told us they used a US repatriation flight into Howard Springs then flew back to US after the wedding.
Goodness me I wouldn’t worry about that. There is no requirement to be repatriating. Plus the flights are priced and scheduled to pretty much exclude most true repatriates. It’s a stupid system so my view is he should just work it any way he can - inc a seat on a repat flight. If he feels bad then avoid taking an econ seat. And if he feels really bad he could put himself on standby as there will always be a handful of people/families who test covid positive and get offloaded at the last minute.
 

Pushka

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Goodness me I wouldn’t worry about that. There is no requirement to be repatriating. Plus the flights are priced and scheduled to pretty much exclude most true repatriates. It’s a stupid system so my view is he should just work it any way he can - inc a seat on a repat flight. If he feels bad then avoid taking an econ seat. And if he feels really bad he could put himself on standby as there will always be a handful of people/families who test covid positive and get offloaded at the last minute.
I'm not worried. I was reassuring @Seat0B that others are doing exactly as was suggested to her son.
 

mviy

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Tomorrow's Front Page on the Herald Sun: "Victorian children aged 12 and above to get vaccinated at school from December" - "...at least one dose this year..."

If this occurs this does raise the question whether the goal posts will be shifted and a target of teenager vaccination will be required to be met before easing international travel restrictions in Phase C.
 

Ric

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And thinking it through, part of my problem is competing family demands.

My father-in-law is 90. I’m not sure my husband could be away overseas for months on end because of the high potential for end of life issues. Similarly, my mum is 87 and just dealing with a big melanoma issue. She relies on me (and my sister) for support to live at home to supplement the ACAT in home care she receives. To be honest, at their ages and states of health, they could pop off at any time - or could both power on for a few more years still. It would be hard for us to leave indefinitelyin these circumstances, even once we wind down and close our business and finish building our house.

But on the other hand, I haven’t seen my son since January 2020. His live in girlfriend of 4 years suddenly left him for someone else 4 months back, after they had endured and apparently survived the very strict lockdown in the UAE together. They were clearly not on the same page - he was planning to propose marriage to her - she had her eye on someone else. And I know he’s young and resilient and that it‘s for the best and all that. But right now, he is shattered - lonely, miserable, questioning his judgment, feeling stupid, and stuck in the new apartment they moved to and lovingly furnished together in December. And when your 30 year old son tells his sister that “right now I just need some time at home with mum and dad”, it is totally heart wrenching not to be able to give him that.

I am very anguished at having to choose which family member needs me the most. It’s not right. and I should not have to make that choice now. Maybe it was OK in March 2020 (not even sure it was right even then TBH), but we are now looking at border closures and strict caps, and long quarantine periods until at least December 2021, and realistically it will be longer than that. That is just not right. And it is even worse for people missing major life events like weddings, special birthdays, graduations, births. And tragic for people missing the chance for final farewells with their nearest and dearest.

I feel that history will judge our inhumane pandemic response here in Australia harshly, in the same way that we now judge the earlier appalling treatment of people with mental illness, the way single mothers were treated in the 50s, 60s and 70s, the Stolen Generations, attitudes to soldiers with PTSD and many other things that were thought to be acceptable or necessary at the time, but which we now abhor.

I hope that @madrooster will be able to sort something out for you fairly soon. He did for me.
 

twiningb

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Tomorrow's Front Page on the Herald Sun: "Victorian children aged 12 and above to get vaccinated at school from December" - "...at least one dose this year..."

If this occurs this does raise the question whether the goal posts will be shifted and a target of teenager vaccination will be required to be met before easing international travel restrictions in Phase C.
I don't know what you mean. The goalposts have never shifted in the last eighteen months of "two weeks to stop the spread".
 

jb747

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Well they would provide more scale than now. It shouldn’t have to be completely open or what the situation is now. There should be something in-between before we get to 70 and 80 percent fully vaccinated.
Extremely unlikely. The issue of scale remains, as it's granular, not linear. You won't see much in the way of flights until airlines think they can make one flight per day work. And then it will stay at that until two become necessary. As I watch this unfold my guess as to when things will be even vaguely normally is becoming more pessimistic. I think I was last at about 2024, but I think that might be wildly optimistic. Maybe for the Qld Olympics....
 
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JB expat

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Extremely unlikely. The issue of scale remains, as it's granular, not linear. You won't see much in the way of flights until airlines think they can make one flight per day work. And then it will stay at that until two become necessary. As I watch this unfold my guess as to when things will be even vaguely normally is becoming more pessimistic. I think I was last at about 2024, but I think that might be wildly optimistic. Maybe for the Qld Olympics....
Perhaps we will initially see more hub and spoke flights. Less direct - even to say, LAX - with HKG being a stopping point or something. Prob will be $$ and will add hours, but as long as I can come & go without hotel quarantine, I will take it.
 

oznflfan

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Extremely unlikely. The issue of scale remains, as it's granular, not linear. You won't see much in the way of flights until airlines think they can make one flight per day work. And then it will stay at that until two become necessary. As I watch this unfold my guess as to when things will be even vaguely normally is becoming more pessimistic. I think I was last at about 2024, but I think that might be wildly optimistic. Maybe for the Qld Olympics....
Hopefully pessimistic. Best case for some semblance of international travel mid 2022, some semblance of normality (i.e. flying to Thailand for 5 days and not worried about getting stuck, flights cancelled, onerous quarantine being added whilst you are on holidays) by mid 2023.
 

JB expat

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Pushka

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Doherty institute mapping has everyone vaccinated by end of January. That is who the Feds are using for their modelling so if this Govt refuses to allow people to travel at that time, then this granny will become a full on freedom demonstrator.
 
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