Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

JB expat

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Acceptance of risk is a strange beast. People might have gone back to Bali, but on their way to Bali they will absolutely refuse to fly Garuda because it's 'unsafe'. But they'll fly there on Air Asia or Malaysia Airlines 🤷‍♂️
People's analysis of risk changes when there is money involved and yet cost has nothing to do with actual risk.

I am always stunned by people not wanting to pay to book assigned seats and then worry about what will happen to their children if seated separately. Or people who want full flexibility but won't pay the higher fees for a fully flexible cancellation policy. Maybe if Australia charged $10 for the Pfizer and $5 for the AZ things would be different. That is said tongue in cheek - I'm grateful it is all free of cost (other than taxes).
 

burmans

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Interesting to see how the cases overseas change. After a period where both the US seemed to be doing so well and even for a time dropped out of the top ten for new cases, they are now back at the top of the pops.

for 20 July, UK 46K cases, US 42K cases, deaths UK 102, US 298

That UK celebration of the end of Covid may have been premature given they got down to an average of 6 deaths at one stage. 6 may have been acceptable as 'living with Covid' but unsure that will remain the case as deaths rise.
 

Must...Fly!

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We should only be publishing vaccinated hospitalisation & death statistics. Those are the ones to watch.

Those who are unvaccinated and in ICU or dying in the UK and US have chosen to walk their own path.
 

Pushka

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Interesting to see how the cases overseas change. After a period where both the US seemed to be doing so well and even for a time dropped out of the top ten for new cases, they are now back at the top of the pops.

for 20 July, UK 46K cases, US 42K cases, deaths UK 102, US 298

That UK celebration of the end of Covid may have been premature given they got down to an average of 6 deaths at one stage. 6 may have been acceptable as 'living with Covid' but unsure that will remain the case as deaths rise.

We should only be publishing vaccinated hospitalisation & death statistics. Those are the ones to watch.

Those who are unvaccinated and in ICU or dying in the UK and US have chosen to walk their own path.

Agree. As always the devil is in the detail. Unvaccinated states are performing very poorly.
 

JB expat

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We should only be publishing vaccinated hospitalisation & death statistics. Those are the ones to watch.

Those who are unvaccinated and in ICU or dying in the UK and US have chosen to walk their own path.
Absolutely - except I would also like stats re: those that are too young to be eligible or who medically cannot be vaccinated
 

Must...Fly!

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Of course, radical suggestion but we could train people in the required skills ourselves instead of always importing such skills.
Yes, but that is a long term solution for government to a short term problem faced by business.
 

Flashback

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I'm not sure if that reasoning holds true.

The thing is we don't 'accept' 1000+ roads deaths a year. The aim of most governments is now along the lines of 'towards zero'. Driving is highly regulated... seat belts, severe speed limits in cities, limits of engine capacity for new drivers, speed cameras, can't even touch your phone while the engine is running. There are severe penalties including gaol if your driving causes injury to others.

Aviation... we don't accept a single death there. The entire MAX fleet was grounded, as have other models when problems occur. A single accident can impose multi-million dollar obligations on airlines to fix an issue or change procedures.

Alcohol is also highly regulated. There are multiple restrictions and bans in place to regulate its use and minimise its harm. I'd argue we don't 'accept' alcohol related deaths.

I don't think we accept the flu either... but we have a vaccine for that. We also have the 'no jab, no play' policy for other diseases. A 'freedom' taken away from people for arguably a very limited benefit (given most kids are willingly vaccinated by parents, why impose such a draconian measure for the remaining few who refuse?)

I'm note sure there is exaggeration by experts. We saw India, USA, Europe, UK, South America....
I think I've mentioned this before but the UK is still located in Europe, that's never changed....
 

Pushka

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Though he’s not calling for immediately easing them either and an example he mentions of grandparents seeing their grandkids isn’t one of the reasons to get an exemption, I think.
Yet. Things will change when vaccinations are washed through.
 
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dajop

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And another story on life outside Australia


What these sorts of stories fail to acknowledge that until last month, most of Australia (outside of Vic) was "back to normal" for most of the previous 12 months.

The only difference between places where life is relatively normal and Australia is vaccination. Simple as that.
 

mviy

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No more NZ for next 2 months. Mr Joyce better have a healthy bank balance.
In my opinion it's only a matter of when, not if, QANTAS seeks to do another capital raising raising funds from institutional investors and from shareholders. If that fails to raise sufficient capital then they could have to consider voluntary administration like Virgin did where the shareholders lose their entire investment.

Which of these options happens has implications for QF's future as an international airline. If it goes down the VA route then it'd likely ditch all the A380s one would think.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I cannot imagine how expensive flights will be as we come out of hard border lockdown...

Either that of the airlines will just add extra flights to accommodate the demand (and attempt to increase their respective market shares). I don't think the flight prices were all that high when the bubble was first introduced?
 

mviy

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Either that of the airlines will just add extra flights to accommodate the demand (and attempt to increase their respective market shares). I don't think the flight prices were all that high when the bubble was first introduced?
It could also be that there is significant reluctance to book trans Tasman flights unless the Australian and NZ governments give assurances that the bubble won't burst again.
 

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