Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[burmans]

It does seem aspirational on current numbers which is exactly why we need a government response to get those numbers up.

 

[drron]

Another medical opinion on what it takes to open borders from an ethics and philosophy viewpoint.

COVID-19: after more than a year, what happens now? - InSight+

COVID-19: Those who have chosen not to accept the small risks of vaccination will have decided to take their chances with their individual unknown susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, writes Will Cairns

insightplus.mja.com.au

Personally I think it is time to let fully vaccinated people leave Australia even if it is limited to green light countries.However follow NZ and before you leave a suitable quarantine arrangement to be booked and possibly paid for.HQ if you went to higher risk countries and hopefully home quarantine if visiting lower risk countries.
To offset some of the political angst with home quarantine possibly a pre paid fee so that compliance can be monitored and testing done on at least 3 occasions and again a few days after 14 days were up and mask wearing when leaving home until that test was negative.This is just a personal opinion but what I could cope with.

 

[mviy]

That sounds perfectly reasonable. Unfortunately there is an election in the next 12 months and I would be surprised if the politicians are reasonable before then.

 

[JB expat]

Another medical opinion on what it takes to open borders from an ethics and philosophy viewpoint.

COVID-19: after more than a year, what happens now? - InSight+

COVID-19: Those who have chosen not to accept the small risks of vaccination will have decided to take their chances with their individual unknown susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, writes Will Cairns

insightplus.mja.com.au

Personally I think it is time to let fully vaccinated people leave Australia even if it is limited to green light countries.However follow NZ and before you leave a suitable quarantine arrangement to be booked and possibly paid for.HQ if you went to higher risk countries and hopefully home quarantine if visiting lower risk countries.
To offset some of the political angst with home quarantine possibly a pre paid fee so that compliance can be monitored and testing done on at least 3 occasions and again a few days after 14 days were up and mask wearing when leaving home until that test was negative.This is just a personal opinion but what I could cope with.

I could live with this - it is balanced.

 

[dajop]

Another medical opinion on what it takes to open borders from an ethics and philosophy viewpoint.

COVID-19: after more than a year, what happens now? - InSight+

COVID-19: Those who have chosen not to accept the small risks of vaccination will have decided to take their chances with their individual unknown susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, writes Will Cairns

insightplus.mja.com.au

Personally I think it is time to let fully vaccinated people leave Australia even if it is limited to green light countries.However follow NZ and before you leave a suitable quarantine arrangement to be booked and possibly paid for.HQ if you went to higher risk countries and hopefully home quarantine if visiting lower risk countries.
To offset some of the political angst with home quarantine possibly a pre paid fee so that compliance can be monitored and testing done on at least 3 occasions and again a few days after 14 days were up and mask wearing when leaving home until that test was negative.This is just a personal opinion but what I could cope with.

I was thinking very similar thing last night. Could start right away and the least to support some research into border opening:

1) Grant exemptions to a limited number "volunteers" .... fully vaccinated Australian residents, at least 2 weeks after their second injection (if demand is great, might have to restrict to compassionate grounds, those who can demonstrate close family overseas who they cannot see)
2) Allow these people to depart on any flight, but return on specific flights
3) Test on arrival, those with negative tests go to specific quarantine "resorts" where they can leave rooms, use facilities, mix amongst each other etc ( but would need to find a mechanism for contactless meal services etc) over and above current caps, for two weeks.
4) Test at end of two weeks, those negative go into two weeks home quarantine
5) Test again after two weeks.

Do this for a few months to get a statistically robust assessment of the risk of at least allowing vaccinated travellers to mingle amongst each.

Just an example, perhaps leading to the suggestion you've made.

The trouble is at the moment, there is not even an indication that there is anybody even looking at the risk of allowing the fully vaccinated to travel.

 

[Flashback]

Another medical opinion on what it takes to open borders from an ethics and philosophy viewpoint.

COVID-19: after more than a year, what happens now? - InSight+

COVID-19: Those who have chosen not to accept the small risks of vaccination will have decided to take their chances with their individual unknown susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2, writes Will Cairns

insightplus.mja.com.au

Personally I think it is time to let fully vaccinated people leave Australia even if it is limited to green light countries.However follow NZ and before you leave a suitable quarantine arrangement to be booked and possibly paid for.HQ if you went to higher risk countries and hopefully home quarantine if visiting lower risk countries.
To offset some of the political angst with home quarantine possibly a pre paid fee so that compliance can be monitored and testing done on at least 3 occasions and again a few days after 14 days were up and mask wearing when leaving home until that test was negative.This is just a personal opinion but what I could cope with.

I'm not sure about other states but WA Health can't even manage sending a bill for HQ until months and months have passed since you depart HQ, so good luck on them being able to manage pre-paid to any degree!

 

[mviy]

I'm not sure about other states but WA Health can't even manage sending a bill for HQ until months and months have passed since you depart HQ, so good luck on them being able to manage pre-paid to any degree!

Well for this to work smoothly they probably should standardise the cost and have people pay to a Federal fund that then releases the funds to the relevant state for the port that the person arrives back at which may not be the same one that they planned to return to.

 

[twiningb]

many saw earlier lockdowns being the fault of Vic govt

They were.

 

[Amanad78]

I was thinking very similar thing last night. Could start right away and the least to support some research into border opening:

1) Grant exemptions to a limited number "volunteers" .... fully vaccinated Australian residents, at least 2 weeks after their second injection (if demand is great, might have to restrict to compassionate grounds, those who can demonstrate close family overseas who they cannot see)
2) Allow these people to depart on any flight, but return on specific flights
3) Test on arrival, those with negative tests go to specific quarantine "resorts" where they can leave rooms, use facilities, mix amongst each other etc ( but would need to find a mechanism for contactless meal services etc) over and above current caps, for two weeks.
4) Test at end of two weeks, those negative go into two weeks home quarantine
5) Test again after two weeks.

Do this for a few months to get a statistically robust assessment of the risk of at least allowing vaccinated travellers to mingle amongst each.

Just an example, perhaps leading to the suggestion you've made.

The trouble is at the moment, there is not even an indication that there is anybody even looking at the risk of allowing the fully vaccinated to travel.

Sign me up!

 

[mviy]

There is a paywalled article on The Australian: US, UK ‘travel bubbles’ appear on horizon

I don't have a subscription but apparently this states that these are expected to be next bubbles after the Pacific Islands. This is due to the high vaccination rates in the US and the UK.

I hope they are right. I would like to get to the UK hopefully by the end of the year (I don't know when they predict that this bubble may happen).

Edit: It seems it may be based on Alan Joyce's thoughts, so it could just be wishful thinking. Apparently "Qantas boss Alan Joyce has tipped flights to the US and the UK before Singapore based on the countries’ vaccination rollouts."

 

[dajop]

Edit: It seems it may be based on Alan Joyce's thoughts, so it could just be wishful thinking. Apparently "Qantas boss Alan Joyce has tipped flights to the US and the UK before Singapore based on the countries’ vaccination rollouts."

I suspect SIngapore will be on the table in the timeframes we're talking about. Singapore PM today announced that everyone who wants a vaccination will have the opportunity to receive one by National Day (9 August).

This includes anyone over 12. So far, about 1/3 have completed their vaccinations (both doses) and another 11% have received a single dose. Currently anyone over 40 can get a shot, and as of 1 June (tomorrow) they will start on school students (12 and over) and university students. By mid June they anticipate starting on the remaining group of under 40's. I expect, given people's tendency to follow government advice and the recent 20 case/day outbreaks (which reminded everyone that this thing hasn't gone away), the vaccination percentage will certainly pass that of US, and possibly that of UK as well.

Australia is probably on a similar path - everyone to have a chance to receive a vaccination by Australia's "National" Day - Jan 26.

 

[jakeseven7]

It does seem aspirational on current numbers which is exactly why we need a government response to get those numbers up.

We need a panicked federal government that see their election chances being dented - which is happening now with this new SA / VIC outbreak, slow vaccine rollout, failure to fix quarantine and now the aged care debacle - all 100% their responsibility.

So, now they are under the pump more (no blaming state governments anymore) I think we will see the Feds throwing some silly money around and hopefully an earlier return to international flights.

At least the ANZ bubble was discussed to expand to include Fiji and Vanuatu which may mean more international flights....

 

[SydneySwan]

The best way to panic the Feds is to refer to anything as the Morrison xx_x ...... so Morrison Lockdown, Morrison Vaccination Debacle, etc. He is super sensitive to being pinned with the blame.

 

[hb13]

I suspect SIngapore will be on the table in the timeframes we're talking about. Singapore PM today announced that everyone who wants a vaccination will have the opportunity to receive one by National Day (9 August).

This includes anyone over 12. So far, about 1/3 have completed their vaccinations (both doses) and another 11% have received a single dose. Currently anyone over 40 can get a shot, and as of 1 June (tomorrow) they will start on school students (12 and over) and university students. By mid June they anticipate starting on the remaining group of under 40's. I expect, given people's tendency to follow government advice and the recent 20 case/day outbreaks (which reminded everyone that this thing hasn't gone away), the vaccination percentage will certainly pass that of US, and possibly that of UK as well.

Australia is probably on a similar path - everyone to have a chance to receive a vaccination by Australia's "National" Day - Jan 26.

I'm really interested to know, in Singapore, does the government actually want to open borders and restart foreign travel? Where do they range in terms of an Australian view (keep borders closed for the next 2-4 years) to the EU, where they are trying to open borders now?

Regarding the borders, once everyone in Singapore is vaccinated, do you have any sense if the government will open borders?

 

[jakeseven7]

The best way to panic the Feds is to refer to anything as the Morrison xx_x ...... so Morrison Lockdown, Morrison Vaccination Debacle, etc. He is super sensitive to being pinned with the blame.

Well because of this latest Morrison lockdown in VIC, because of the Morrison quarantine breach in SA, I fear that international flights are even further away!

 

[mviy]

There’s plenty of blame to go around.

The main thing I think is that this increases the chances of a May election which means travel is probably quite a while off.

 

[SydneySwan]

OK it may not happen but at least it is some sort of plan / roadmap ..... something sorely lacking here.

EU Proposes Lifting Quarantine & Testing Requirements From Fully Vaccinated On July 1, 2021

European Commission proposes that member states lift quarantine and testing requirements from fully vaccinated and apply standard entry rules within the bloc.

loyaltylobby.com

 

[ayushamity]

Vietnam Airlines seen piloting Covid-19 vaccine passport program next month » Vietnam News - Latest Updates and World Insights | Vietreader.com

A man uses the IATA Travel Pass app. Vietnam Airlines will pilot Covid-19 vaccine passports next month - PHOTO: VIETNAM AIRLINES HCMC - Vietnam Airlines will join hands with the International Air Transport Association (IATA) to introduce the IATA Travel Pass app, a Covid-19 vaccine passport

vietreader.com

Just to illustrate, even countries with active outbreaks are at least thinking of SOMEthing in the background about opening up borders.

At this rate, I will have a greater chance of going overseas by the end of the year to Vietnam than Australia letting anyone in until middle of next year

 

[N860CR]

It is interesting to see that all the shining lights of COVID success (Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, Viet Nam, Australia) have fallen into the same trap of “hiding under the doona” and are now suffering breakouts and are arguably in the worst position they’ve been in thus far (as the world superpowers start to turn a corner and recover). Hiding clearly isn’t the way out of this, and governments are now in the difficult position of having to admit that their positions were basically wrong (yet they’ll never say this).

I vaguely remember making this exact prediction 12 months ago.

 

[dajop]

Regarding the borders, once everyone in Singapore is vaccinated, do you have any sense if the government will open borders?

In a measured way. But not in any hurry. I suspect there will be certain countries that remain on the no list for some time (India, African countries, Brazil, even Indonesia may be tricky).

But Singapore's borders are more open than Australia's at the moment (they need to be). Still massive shipping industry, many trucks bringing in supplies every day from Malaysia. Lots of foreign constructions workers, domestic helpers etc still coming in. Oil & gas workers (eg. a number of cases in HQ came from PNG here for work, presumably oil and gas workers). Also accepting (in theory) visitors from Australia (except as of last week Victoria), China, Brunei & NZ. Residents have never been banned from departing, and quarantine capacity is about 4-5 that of Australia on a per capita basis. The big problem at the moment is for those here on work passes (work visas) - who can leave, but may not be (and at the moment are not) allowed to come back.

As a PR, I can go on a holiday in Europe or the US if I want to, but need to face 3 weeks quarantine on return (or what I'd more likely do, is go from Europe or US to Australia first - do 2 weeks quarantine there , then at least another week in Australia, before returning). We contemplated doing this, but our priority for overseas travel is not holidays - but first and foremost seeing family (mothers, siblings, nieces/nephews) and secondarily, maintaining our property back in Australia, and whilst in theory we could do SG->Europe->Australia would not want to jeopardise seeing family for the sake of a couple of weeks in Europe (given the uncertainty around securing seats).