Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted | Page 35 | Australian Frequent Flyer
Australian Frequent Flyer

Welcome to Australia's leading independent Frequent Flyer and Travel Resource since 1998!
Our site contains tons of information that will improve your travel experience.

Joining AFF is fast, simple & absolutely free - register now and take immediate advantage of these great BENEFITS.

Once registered, this box will disappear. And you will see fewer advertisements :)

Login Now to remove this and all advertisements (GOLD and SILVER members)
Not a member? Register Now for free

Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
186
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
The UK quarantine, at this stage of the pandemic, seems to me to be absolutely pointless.
Exactly.
I think the UK Government will lost a lot of votes this time, especially earlier when Boris Johnson was saying Herd Immunity, that's nonsense and just shows UK is not ready for a pandamic.
 

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
186
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
Breaking News

According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:

Expression of interest now open:

It's the moment we have been waiting for... the first international tourist flights are soon to be tested!
Today Canberra Airport opened a register of interest for flights between Canberra and Wellington, which, if approved by both governments, will take off on July 1 and 2.
Our AIPA pilots are hopeful that this passes and can't wait to meet you on board.
You can sign up to the register of interest at https://www.canberraairport.com.au/transtasman/
Please register your interest here:


If it is successful, I think we can return to Trans-Tasman travel by late July/early August.
 
Last edited:

NM

Enthusiast
Moderator
Joined
Aug 27, 2004
Messages
16,201
Qantas
LT Gold
Virgin
Red
Flights
My Map
According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:
I am not sure I agree with your interpretation, especially the use of the word "will" in you statement?

As far as I can tell, this "breaking news" comes from an airport (Canberra Airport) stating that they are ready to send and receive flights between CBR and NZ ports, and asking if any airlines would be willing to take up the offer - pending approval by both governments. And APIA (the union for pilots) obviously wants to see it happen as it will benefit their members. That, in my understanding, is a long way short of justifying teh use of the word "will".
If it is successful, I think we can return to Trans-Tasman travel by late July/early August.
And again, this statement sets a different timeline than the first statement. This timeline I do see as possible, but until we hear from both governments, I am not going to use information sourced from organisations that are desperately pushing their own agenda (airport owners, airlines and pilots union) as their wishful thinking and an attempt to influence government decisions, without it being backed up by those who actually make the decisions.

I think it is fair to expect that all of the Australian international airports, the airlines, and the unions representing all of the affected workers (not just airline workers) and the workers themselves will ensure they are ready and able to operate when the governments declare they can.
 

Pushka

Enthusiast
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
22,593
Flights
My Map
I am not sure I agree with your interpretation, especially the use of the word "will" in you statement?

As far as I can tell, this "breaking news" comes from an airport (Canberra Airport) stating that they are ready to send and receive flights between CBR and NZ ports, and asking if any airlines would be willing to take up the offer - pending approval by both governments. And APIA (the union for pilots) obviously wants to see it happen as it will benefit their members. That, in my understanding, is a long way short of justifying teh use of the word "will".

And again, this statement sets a different timeline than the first statement. This timeline I do see as possible, but until we hear from both governments, I am not going to use information sourced from organisations that are desperately pushing their own agenda (airport owners, airlines and pilots union) as their wishful thinking and an attempt to influence government decisions, without it being backed up by those who actually make the decisions.

I think it is fair to expect that all of the Australian international airports, the airlines, and the unions representing all of the affected workers (not just airline workers) and the workers themselves will ensure they are ready and able to operate when the governments declare they can.
It does sound a little like all the football codes telling us that their season is starting but haven't yet confirmed all the border issues with the relevant states first.
 

Berlin

Established Member
Joined
Mar 31, 2011
Messages
1,676
Breaking News

According to AIPA, it is official that a trial Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble will commence on 1st and 2nd of July:
Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.
 

jakeseven7

Established Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
2,246
Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.
And an airline that can be bothered to fly it. Canberra - Wellington? please...

All the airlines want is the state borders open, all of them - to each other so they can get the main trunk routes open - then maybe someone will entertain these marginal routes again.

Not these ridiculous 'I pick you and you but not you' games all the second and third tier premiers are playing.
 
Last edited:

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
186
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
And an airline that can be bothered to fly it. Canberra - Wellington? please...

All the airlines want is the state borders open, all of them - to each other so they can get the main trunk routes open - then maybe someone will entertain these marginal routes again.

Not these ridiculous 'I pick you and you but not you' games all the second and third tier premiers are playing.
Singapore Airlines have proven that this is not realistic option before, and I don't understand why they want to do it again other than just a showcase.

Anyways, here's more news about the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble from Executive Traveller:


I am deeply concerned as to how we can resume Asian travel by the year's end if we can only restart Trans-Tasman flights in September. 😭😭😭
 

jakeseven7

Established Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
2,246
Singapore Airlines have proven that this is not realistic option before, and I don't understand why they want to do it again other than just a showcase.

Anyways, here's more news about the Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble from Executive Traveller:
Oh we don't quote that blog on this forum :oops:
 

drron

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 4, 2002
Messages
24,013
Gosh, why are people so gullible when they read a silly headline? Nothing is confirmed- it's a pipe dream by a relative small airport (sorry, Canberra) and a pilot union which is clearly acting in self interest. There's an official government group that includes members of airlines, both governments and key airports (of which Canberra is, funny that, not one of) that is working on sorting the details of when and how a trans Tasman bubble could come into effect but in the end it will be the two governments that have to agree. This silly little Canberra-Wello thing is just a distraction, as far as I can tell.
And just why would kiwis be in a hurry to leave their winter behind for a Canberra winter.
 
Joined
Nov 18, 2011
Messages
8,196
Qantas
LT Silver
Flights
My Map
it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us. We’ll be spending our money there instead of here in Aus where it is needed.
 

CityRail

Member
Joined
Jul 22, 2019
Messages
186
Qantas
Bronze
Virgin
Gold
it is a bit sad that we Aussies will be going more in their direction than them to us. We’ll be spending our money there instead of here in Aus where it is needed.
It it mutual benefit - whilst you have us going to New Zealand, there will be NZers coming to Australia to spend. I understand that the number may be low at the moment, however I believe that is appropriate for us to leave the country and breathe some fresh air and to Asia to taste authentic Asian food rather than getting stuck here in Australia.
 

Gremlin

Member
Joined
Mar 5, 2010
Messages
376
So, the Reserve Bank of NZ has released analysis showing that at Alert Level 2 (roughly equivalent to Phase 3 of Australia's road map), NZ's GDP is expected to be 8.8% worse off than pre-COVID levels. Once they move to Alert Level 1 (probably this week or next week), their GDP is expected to be only 3.8% worse than pre-COVID levels. In other words, taking away social distancing requirements and re-opening the economy to large scale events is expected to improve NZ's GDP by 5.0%. In comparison, travellers from Australia add ~1.4% to NZ's GDP. International tourism in total represents 3.3% of their GDP and all international travel is worth 4.7% (the difference being primarily international students but also some domestic travel related to onwards international travel). Link below if anyone is interested

RBNZ - Economic impacts of COVID-19 containment measures

A good friend from across the ditch told me last night that there was a fair degree of disquiet behind closed doors over there following Paul Kelly's press conference this week. There was a comment made suggesting that social distancing measures (in Australia) will need to remain, especially as we open up our international borders.

The concern from across the ditch is that if they import community transmission from Australia (or elsewhere), then they will need to go back to Alert Level 2. The idea of the 'bubble' is predicated on an environment where there is similar risk of community transmission in both locations. If NZ has eradicated and Australia is expecting to re-import some level of community transmission to the extent that social distancing measures need to be maintained then that doesn't meet NZ's needs. They are not looking to risk 5% of their GDP in order to support 1.4% GDP. That doesn't stack up.

So whilst NZ are progressing on the basis that the bubble will happen, a 'please explain' from Australia as to how Australia will look to further re-open travel bilaterally and how that would protect the integrity of NZ's eradication status looks on the cards. If Australia locks into the bubble it may be on terms that make it much harder to bilaterally open up travel elsewhere. Interesting times...
 

Community Statistics

Threads
85,926
Messages
2,050,112
Members
53,240
Latest member
seracadventures
Top