Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

jakeseven7

Senior Member
Joined
Sep 9, 2005
Messages
6,051
Solutions
2
Points
995
Funny thing in a pandemic that's what helps.....

None of these countries are ever going to open in 2021. Forget it right now. In Singapore we've had 12 new local cases in the last week (although some are likely past infections, some confined to dorms and one on a ship). By Australia (except NSW) standards we'd be in lockdown already.

Forget Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia already. Yesterday 446 (of those tested), 1480 and 2875 new cases respectively. Not going to happen.

Forget Singapore, WA is locked down (again) for one case (again) and another huge long weekend ruined (again).
 

oznflfan

Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2020
Messages
356
Points
210
Funny thing in a pandemic that's what helps.....

None of these countries are ever going to open in 2021. Forget it right now. In Singapore we've had 12 new local cases in the last week (although some are likely past infections, some confined to dorms and one on a ship). By Australia (except NSW) standards we'd be in lockdown already.

Forget Cambodia, Thailand, and Malaysia already. Yesterday 446 (of those tested), 1480 and 2875 new cases respectively. Not going to happen.
I could deal with March/April 2022. Cross fingers.

You are right about our COVID standards, Perth just announced 3 Day Lockdown for 1 case. EMBARRASSING
 

mviy

Established Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2015
Messages
3,096
Points
690
I could deal with March/April 2022. Cross fingers.

You are right about our COVID standards, Perth just announced 3 Day Lockdown for 1 case. EMBARRASSING
March/April for reopening borders would mean I'd probably head to the UK around July 2022 to spend some time over there in their summer.

The fact that lockdowns are still happening in Perth for just 1 case would seem to indicate that if there is a travel bubble brought in with London flights would go via SIN or DRW not via PER unless the WA government provides assurances that lockdowns will not impact the SYD/MEL - PER - LHR service.
 
Last edited:

oznflfan

Member
Joined
Apr 15, 2020
Messages
356
Points
210
March/April for reopening borders would mean I'd probably head to the UK around July 2022 to spend some time over there in their summer.

The fact that lockdowns are still happening in Perth for just 1 case would seem to indicate that if there is a travel bubble brought in with London flights would go via SIN or DRW not via PER unless the WA government provides assurances that lockdowns will not impact the SYD/MEL - PER - LHR service.
Good luck, I reckon mid 2022 to UK about the earliest that will be allowed to occur.

Apparently Qantas has heaps of bookings Australia to London for Christmas and our summer holiday period to end of January 2022. Some people very glass half full, but if pans out all good for them.

I've got a huge break planned for June-August 2023 for my 50th. UK, France, Germany & Poland. Surely that will be OK and back to pre-COVID conditions (hate face masks)?
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
503
Points
290
Qantas
Gold
We could also vaccinate the entire Fiji population with less than a week of our CSL Victorian AZ manufacturing!

True - especially since the AZ vaccine doesn't appear to be even used by that many in Aus.
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
503
Points
290
Qantas
Gold
My predictions for 2021/2022.

2021 - After hearing the Prime Minister effectively say he will let the states decide about Intl travel, I don't think there will be any more bubbles apart from some countries in the pacific between now and the end of this year - if and when they have their full populations fully vaccinated.

2022 - I can only see a Singapore bubble.

2023/24 - Maybe we start to see some destinations such the UK/US.
 
Your simple solution to home security. Quickly view what’s happening at home when you're not there, giving you peace of mind.

Simple plug-in installation means you’ll be up and running in no time.

AFF Supporters can remove this and all advertisements

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
503
Points
290
Qantas
Gold
I think QF will be sweating on the UK being greenlighted for Aussies, as they can do direct flights from PER. Given the well established connections between AU and UK families, this would enable a real opportunity for travel sooner than with many other countries who are less well advanced in vaccine roll-out. The downside is that because of the chances that visitors to UK could sneak into EU etc, we will have 2 weeks HQ in WA on return - and knowing their premier's track record we could never get the number of arrivals allowed to equal the potential numbers for departure. Catch 22 however you look at these issues.

QF will be really sweating. Because unless they've decided they're going to be running flights with a dozen or so passengers on them, there is no way they will be doing anything this year, and most likely next year either. The caps we have now, as well as hotel quarantine and the ban on Aussies leaving Australia will remain for a couple more years at least.

Also, Perth is about to halve their cap, again - and who knows for how long.
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
22,733
Solutions
6
Points
1,820
So...predictions of international travel 2021, 2022?

For those fully vaccinated, and not coming from a 'red' zone: inbound with home quarantine from late Nov or early Dec. Means the government can say 'Aussies can come home for Christmas'.

Outbound - I think there's a real possibility they might try and restrict that until late January 2022, to coincide with the end of the school holidays.
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
503
Points
290
Qantas
Gold
For those fully vaccinated, and not coming from a 'red' zone: inbound with home quarantine from late Nov or early Dec. Means the government can say 'Aussies can come home for Christmas'.

Outbound - I think there's a real possibility they might try and restrict that until late January 2022, to coincide with the end of the school holidays.

Define 'red' zone. At this stage, one or two cases causes panic in Australia, where everyone believes the apocalypse is here.
 

roogirl

Junior Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2012
Messages
35
Points
90
It’s laughable to think that there will be any travel bubbles this year when the whole population has lost their minds over a couple of cases. Also people seem to be thinking there’s some silver bullet quarantine situation that guarantees zero
Covid. Presumably eventually people will cotton onto the fact there will always be leaks. And the fact that being vaccinated is the best way to not have covid kill you.

anyway, those in Perth can enjoy their lockdown I suppose.
 

hb13

Active Member
Joined
Sep 2, 2013
Messages
503
Points
290
Qantas
Gold
It’s laughable to think that there will be any travel bubbles this year when the whole population has lost their minds over a couple of cases. Also people seem to be thinking there’s some silver bullet quarantine situation that guarantees zero
Covid. Presumably eventually people will cotton onto the fact there will always be leaks. And the fact that being vaccinated is the best way to not have covid kill you.

anyway, those in Perth can enjoy their lockdown I suppose.

I agree with you there, but the problem is the media and government (except Gladys in NSW) have basically scared the Aussie population into submission and made people believe one new case is potentially going to bring the world to an end.

IMO, apart from maybe half a dozen countries, Australians will be not allowed (unless it is a very good reason, backed up with evidence and a blood oath that you're not lying) to travel anywhere for 3 - 5 years. And it seems like the majority of the population, including some here are completely fine with that.

Thanks to the absolutely disastrous vaccine program - vaccination will take a really long time in Australia - and who knows what happens after the whole population is vaccinated? Greg Hunt has said this won't mean open borders. So when do borders open? Covid-19 is here to stay. We realise that with a vaccine and therapeutics we can treat it like flu, or, the Australia will stay closed forever, and you will snap lockdowns every week or month, as well as internal borders being shut every couple of weeks.
 

dajop

Enthusiast
Joined
Jul 1, 2002
Messages
12,193
Solutions
3
Points
1,345
There are travel bubbles which means freedom from quarantine. But there are many options in between that complete freedom.

Over here in SG, the following options have been used depending on risk
- 21 days in HQ (new for arrivals from India)
- 14 days in HQ
- 14 days home quarantine (or hotel of choice)
- 7 days home quarantine (or hotel of choice)
- test on arrival and free to go (like everyone, must wear masks and must use TraceTogether App , even visitors must download the app).
- controlled itineraries (for critical business visitors, with testing)
 

roogirl

Junior Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2012
Messages
35
Points
90
I fear the problem is that travel entry options actually linked to risk seem beyond the comprehension of the Australian public right now. The prevailing sentiment seems to be that it is madness to open the border at all.
 

Pushka

Veteran Member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
26,201
Solutions
4
Points
3,035
Qantas
Platinum
Virgin
Red
I fear the problem is that travel entry options actually linked to risk seem beyond the comprehension of the Australian public right now. The prevailing sentiment seems to be that it is madness to open the border at all.
But I admit to trepidation when I see the infection rate in India. And the fact that Australia has constant issues with infections within the system that's supposed to isolate overseas travellers. The media beat up. Numpty decision making that blind Freddy can see what the risks are. The cossetted doona brigade who can't see beyond Australian borders. Overreactive Premiers who have abrogated their power to CHO's. Crazy slow immunisation rate because we 'don't have an issue here". Well, it's a hot mess.
 

MEL_Traveller

Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 27, 2005
Messages
22,733
Solutions
6
Points
1,820
I fear the problem is that travel entry options actually linked to risk seem beyond the comprehension of the Australian public right now. The prevailing sentiment seems to be that it is madness to open the border at all.

That's right. But I don't think it's a case of being 'beyond comprehension'. It's assessing what we have, what we want to keep, and deciding - once vaccination is freely available - what risk we are willing to accept.
 

mviy

Established Member
Joined
Dec 1, 2015
Messages
3,096
Points
690
I fear the problem is that travel entry options actually linked to risk seem beyond the comprehension of the Australian public right now. The prevailing sentiment seems to be that it is madness to open the border at all.
Whereas the prevailing sentiment here is close to the opposite:
  • That the virus is not going away any time soon.
  • That we need to learn to live with the virus especially as most people who catch the virus recover.
  • That suppression is the right strategy not elimination (at least until/unless we reach herd immunity)
  • That travel overseas and coming home should be easier between countries that are suppressing the virus well, especially once you have been vaccinated.
  • That there should have been the capacity to have many more quarantine places by now and that home quarantine if done right and used for travellers from lower risk countries is a sensible suggestion to allow more travel to take place.
  • That restricting Australians from entering or leaving the country may well be illegal and that the blanket ban with few exceptions for the most part ignoring differences in risk levels is arbitrary.
 

Enhance your AFF viewing experience!

From just $6 we'll remove all advertisements so that you can enjoy a cleaner and uninterupted viewing experience.

And you'll be supporting us so that we can continue to provide this valuable resource :)


Sample AFF with no advertisements? More..

Community Statistics

Threads
87,558
Messages
2,152,103
Members
54,552
Latest member
LukeSkinner
Top