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Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

james4321

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The Prime Minister "It must be safe, our priority is to make sure its safe, it has to be safe" rinse and repeat until people stop asking why its going to be so bloody late

distract distract distract has to be safeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
So you would rather its not safe ???
 

Pom-DownUnder

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So you would rather its not safe ???
TGA going to say safe/not safe in Jan, you really think that question is going to be answered between now and then? the evidence is there for them to say yes or no to, they are just dragging that part out to excuse their poor rollout timetable
 

james4321

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TGA going to say safe/not safe in Jan, you really think that question is going to be answered between now and then? the evidence is there for them to say yes or no to, they are just dragging that part out to excuse their poor rollout timetable
Yawn. Boring rubbish
 
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ayushamity

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TGA going to say safe/not safe in Jan, you really think that question is going to be answered between now and then? the evidence is there for them to say yes or no to, they are just dragging that part out to excuse their poor rollout timetable

Yep agreed. As if they are going to reject the Oxford vaccine - They will be the laughing stock in the world
 

ayushamity

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I REALLLLLLLY hope that they allow travel by this tine next year and not push it to 2022. What do you guys think the chances are ?

It's some consolation that there is less than a year now until borders open.
 

MEL_Traveller

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I REALLLLLLLY hope that they allow travel by this tine next year and not push it to 2022. What do you guys think the chances are ?

It's some consolation that there is less than a year now until borders open.

I think this time next year would be a fairly reasonable assumption.

Obviously the vaccine will be available earlier for priority people... but the question will be what happens between say March/April and whenever we complete 'general' vaccination?

Will the government allow travel once you have been vaccinated? Or will we all have to wait? Will 'business' be able to secure a higher place in the order of priority?
 

ayushamity

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Well for what its worth, I got my travel exemption last night for leaving Australia on the grounds of going overseas for more than 3 months

I wanted to see if it can be achieved lol. Hoping to go Thailand in February if I can
 

MEL_Traveller

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Well for what its worth, I got my travel exemption last night for leaving Australia on the grounds of going overseas for more than 3 months

I wanted to see if it can be achieved lol. Hoping to go Thailand in February if I can

I think there are multiple (moving) parts to this. Exemption is valid now, but what happens in say January-March next year when Europe and UK have had their jabs and Thailand says 'no vaccine no entry'? Or will they still let us do quarantine?

What happens from March next year when Qantas says 'no jab no fly'? Will exemptions become a moot point if the airline(s) won't let us on? (I'm being a little provocative there because I think it will be governments, rather than airlines that determine who can and can't fly).

What will happen to 'business'? The UK has just released exemptions for sports people, entertainers and 'high value' business employees to enter the UK without quarantine. How many businesses will try to play that exemption? And who will fly them? (if airlines like QF really do go down the 'no jab no fly' route).
 

ayushamity

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I think there are multiple (moving) parts to this. Exemption is valid now, but what happens in say January-March next year when Europe and UK have had their jabs and Thailand says 'no vaccine no entry'? Or will they still let us do quarantine?

What happens from March next year when Qantas says 'no jab no fly'? Will exemptions become a moot point if the airline(s) won't let us on? (I'm being a little provocative there because I think it will be governments, rather than airlines that determine who can and can't fly).

Thailand is allowing people in now as long as they pay for hotel quarantine on arrival. I do not see a reason why it would change even after a vaccine. After a vaccine, they might just say vaccinated people do not have to quarantine but if you don't have a vaccine, you still have to quarantine,

Its about $1,500 AUD to quarantine in Thailand hotel for 14 days - They are making a fortune !!

Yes you are right. It will be governments. Maybe Qantas has a 'no jab no fly' policy but they are going to lose some serious business when people have exemptions but cannot fly with them because the general population has not receive their vaccines yet.

Singapore Airlines (which is the one I am looking at) does not have that policy and I doubt they will enforce it. Large transit type airlines (Singapore, Emirates etc.) cannot afford to have that policy as a lot of their customers are from third world countries where vaccines wont be available until 2022.

If AJ wants to be a prick about his policy, so be it. There are numerous other airiness happy to take fee paying passengers.

Qantas have always been doom and gloom since the pandemic and were the first ones to park their planes away in long term storage. So naturally they think they are above the rest of the airlines and demand 'clean' passengers only
 

oznflfan

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I REALLLLLLLY hope that they allow travel by this tine next year and not push it to 2022. What do you guys think the chances are ?

It's some consolation that there is less than a year now until borders open.
So many moving targets to predict. I think best case is when you think oversea's travel will start back up, then add 6 months to it for Australian government delays. So by that measure, I think oversea's travel by 1/9/2021, so add 6 months = 1/3/2022. Vaccine required of course.
 

ayushamity

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With regards to vaccines, 4 million doses of the Oxford vaccine are being ready by Dec 28 with a further 4 million doses being ready every month in Melbourne. And 10 million doses of Pfizer are coming in March from overseas.

SO by March we should have 12 million doses of Oxford (if approved) and 10 milllion doses of Pfizer. Enough for about 11 million people which is almost half the Australian population.

So yes we are getting delayed till March but once roll out commences, there should be a fair few vaccines to go around immediately.
 

MEL_Traveller

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With regards to vaccines, 4 million doses of the Oxford vaccine are being ready by Dec 28 with a further 4 million doses being ready every month in Melbourne. And 10 million doses of Pfizer are coming in March from overseas.

SO by March we should have 12 million doses of Oxford (if approved) and 10 milllion doses of Pfizer. Enough for about 11 million people which is almost half the Australian population.

So yes we are getting delayed till March but once roll out commences, there should be a fair few vaccines to go around immediately.
I read yesterday the Pfizer vaccine was suffering supply issues and only half the ordered doses will be available? :( (So like 5 million for Australia instead of 10.)

I was just checking the Singapore transit website and interesting they of course confirm Singapore has unilaterally lifted travel restrictions to/from Australia. While no one seems to have made a big deal of that (because we need exemptions anyway)... for those who can travel it means pax arriving from Australia are free to use the airport's facilities and won't be separated in special holding areas. Per the SQ website this means full use of all lounges! Pretty sweet!

Re Thailand and quarantine.. I guess it depends on how well they feel they are managing the process. Victoria closed its quarantine hotels because of virus escape. Other countries may similarly choose to end quarantine in preference for a vaccine. Thailand wants high value tourists... if Europe can supply those, with vaccines, they may get priority.

The other issue for international travel is the ability to secure travel insurance. At the moment many Aussie providers have simply closed shop :( The question will be when are they going to start selling policies again? When the Aussie government lifts the 'do not travel'? When a vaccine becomes available?
 

RAM

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With regards to vaccines, 4 million doses of the Oxford vaccine are being ready by Dec 28 with a further 4 million doses being ready every month in Melbourne. And 10 million doses of Pfizer are coming in March from overseas.

SO by March we should have 12 million doses of Oxford (if approved) and 10 milllion doses of Pfizer. Enough for about 11 million people which is almost half the Australian population.

So yes we are getting delayed till March but once roll out commences, there should be a fair few vaccines to go around immediately.
How long will it take to deliver those 22 million injections?

Say 10 minutes per dose. Takes two doses = 11,000,000 x 2 x 10 = 220,000,000 minutes of a nurse/doctor's time.
Is 3,666,666 hours, 488,889 working days.

3,000 nurses/doctors = 163 days or nearly 33 weeks or 7.5 months = mid November 2021 if start after 31 March.
5,000 nurses/doctors = 98 days, nearly 20 weeks or 4.5 months = mid July

Or how many people can one nurse/doctor vaccinate per day if all clerical work is done by another staff member?

6 per hour, or 45 people a day. Realistically nobody can be expected to be providing vaccinations 5 days a week for six months or more.

How many spare 'sterile' rooms are there for the vaccination to be done in?

AS CV precautions will still need to be taken - will the medical staff doing the vaccinations be required to dispose of their gloves, gown etc & between every patient? Is 10 minutes per patient long enough?

Given that the seemingly obvious mandatory testing of hotel quarantine, airport workers, ADF, Police etc involved in CV facing roles has still not been enacted in NSW (generally held out by many to be the most-on-the-ball) - then it does make you wonder whether the actual vaccination protocols have been fully thought through let alone standardised.

In the UK's case they identified specific vaccination locations back in August & started the logistical planning to ensure they had adequate PPE supplies to deal with the massive surge in requirement.

Now as many AFFers can testify first-hand - there is not a lot of spare medical capacity existing in the Australian system. Not many medical staff are sitting around doing nothing.

Where will the 3,000 to 5,000 nurses/doctors be taken from? Where are 3,000 to 5,000 suitable rooms for them to use?

Offsetting this is the number of people who do not turn up as scheduled or at all. Typically between 8 to 15% for one reason or another (even for free weekly clinics run in our public hospitals!)

It would be a positive outcome if some specific details were released by National Cabinet or the National medical advisor group to help build public confidence.
 

jase05

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Well for what its worth, I got my travel exemption last night for leaving Australia on the grounds of going overseas for more than 3 months

I wanted to see if it can be achieved lol. Hoping to go Thailand in February if I can
How long are you staying in Thailand for?
If you have no desire to return to Australia for a few months it sounds good
 

MEL_Traveller

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How long will it take to deliver those 22 million injections?

Say 10 minutes per dose.

6 per hour, or 45 people a day.

How many spare 'sterile' rooms are there for the vaccination to be done in?

Does it have to be that complicated? With almost zero community transmission, would we really need to be changing PPE after every patient?

When we get the flu shot at work we're scheduled at 3 minute intervals, so something like 20 vaccinations per hour. With people grouped in 15 minute blocks, doesn't matter if someone doesn't turn up, the next person waiting just goes in.

Would the vaccinations really need to be by nurses or doctors at sterile facilities? Or like the flu shot, could pharmacies also provide them? Chemist Warehouse has 300 stores nationally with 2 and sometimes 3 pharmacists working at a time. Other options might include paramedics volunteering overtime. Retired nurses and doctors might volunteer (especially if their income for doing so was tax free!). Pop-up facilities can be put in all major hospital grounds and places like car parks.

Oh... and the whole of the armed services medical corps! They could help out in cities, and would have the logistics capability to do regional as well.
 
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Pom-DownUnder

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Does it have to be that complicated? With almost zero community transmission, would we really need to be changing PPE after every patient?

When we get the flu shot at work we're scheduled at 3 minute intervals, so something like 20 vaccinations per hour. With people grouped in 15 minute blocks, doesn't matter if someone doesn't turn up, the next person waiting just goes in.

Would the vaccinations really need to be by nurses or doctors at sterile facilities? Or like the flu shot, could pharmacies also provide them? Chemist Warehouse has 300 stores nationally with 2 and sometimes 3 pharmacists working at a time. Other options might include paramedics volunteering overtime. Retired nurses and doctors might volunteer (especially if their income for doing so was tax free!). Pop-up facilities can be put in all major hospital grounds and places like car parks.

Oh... and the whole of the armed services medical corps! They could help out in cities, and would have the logistics capability to do regional as well.
they were giving flu jabs in may / june at the local pharmacy, no need for sterile environment for a CV vaccine, GP's / pharmacies / specifically set up areas can do them its not a surgical procedure.
 

DC3

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they were giving flu jabs in may / june at the local pharmacy, no need for sterile environment for a CV vaccine, GP's / pharmacies / specifically set up areas can do them its not a surgical procedure.
Yeah. They can do the COVID vax in their spare time, when they have nothing else to do. 🤣
 

DC3

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... and the whole of the armed services medical corps! They could help out in cities, and would have the logistics capability to do regional as well.
However, need to be a bit careful there. Do that for 6-12 months and then the Government/ADF looks at deleting positions, as people show that we don’t need them any more in their real job. 😉
 

OATEK

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they were giving flu jabs in may / june at the local pharmacy, no need for sterile environment for a CV vaccine, GP's / pharmacies / specifically set up areas can do them its not a surgical procedure.
I had my flu shot in the car park beside the surgery. They wore PPE, and I provided an arm.
 

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