New Zealand Reports of the Virus Spread

henrus

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The bubble is gone.
#fakenews...

No announcement has been made about it's complete extinction and whilst "experts" have claimed it'll never resume that same "expert" said back when it suspended that there was no need to pause or in the same article told the NZ public not to worry but flyers beware.

The official site (link below) states it's suspended for at least 8 weeks pending a review in September.

Four weeks ago the NZ PM said "We do want the bubble to resume. We remain committed to it".

Then just 10 days ago Chris Hipkins (Covid 19 Minister) was asked about reopening and hinted that state by state reopening was possible

One certain thing is that no one from NSW (especially Greater Sydney/Newcastle) will be allowed into NZ anytime soon.
 
#fakenews...

No announcement has been made about it's complete extinction and whilst "experts" have claimed it'll never resume that same "expert" said back when it suspended that there was no need to pause or in the same article told the NZ public not to worry but flyers beware.

The official site (link below) states it's suspended for at least 8 weeks pending a review in September.

Four weeks ago the NZ PM said "We do want the bubble to resume. We remain committed to it".

Then just 10 days ago Chris Hipkins (Covid 19 Minister) was asked about reopening and hinted that state by state reopening was possible

One certain thing is that no one from NSW (especially Greater Sydney/Newcastle) will be allowed into NZ anytime soon.
Why Newcastle?
5 cases today and only one of them had community exposure. There are more cases and more community exposure in Melbourne than here.
If this continues we won’t be in the lockdown zone.

I also don’t see us getting back to NZ anytime soon either but that’s not due to rampant covid here just due to NZ declaring all of NSW as out of the bubble.
 
Is this your interpretation of what was said yesterday, or did the NZ government specifically say this?

It’s my informed opinion. NZ is insisting it will stick with the covid zero policy. We will get to 80% double jabbed before they would consider reopening to us, and at that point, we will be looking towards opening our borders to other countries. We will have covid circulating throughout the community and would be a risk to NZ.

This was always going to happen. Fact is NZ is a fair way behind Australia in terms of vaccination, so IMO trans tasman flights won't be back until next year when their vax rates improve and they start opening up.
 
It’s my informed opinion. NZ is insisting it will stick with the covid zero policy. We will get to 80% double jabbed before they would consider reopening to us, and at that point, we will be looking towards opening our borders to other countries. We will have covid circulating throughout the community and would be a risk to NZ.

This was always going to happen. Fact is NZ is a fair way behind Australia in terms of vaccination, so IMO trans tasman flights won't be back until next year when their vax rates improve and they start opening up.
I would hardly say "fair way behind Australia" when as at today, AU is 20% fully vaccinated vs NZ at 18% (source Our World in Data). AU is ahead by a bit more for first shot people (a further 18% vs 12%). Most predictions/models suggest NZ and AU will be similar in providing everyone a chance to be vaccinated by the end of the year...what the % uptake reaches at that point is anyone's guess!

That being said, I do agree with you in that the covid zero policy NZ is pursuing will mean the reopening to other countries will be a lot slower than AU. However, I'm yet to be convinced some of the State Governments will actually proceed with opening when vaccination rates hit 80% in AU.
 
However, I'm yet to be convinced some of the State Governments will actually proceed with opening when vaccination rates hit 80% in AU.
I agree with this - at least initially. Public pressure will force them to yield most of the power they've grabbed during the pandemic.
 
I would hardly say "fair way behind Australia" when as at today, AU is 20% fully vaccinated vs NZ at 18% (source Our World in Data). AU is ahead by a bit more for first shot people (a further 18% vs 12%). Most predictions/models suggest NZ and AU will be similar in providing everyone a chance to be vaccinated by the end of the year...what the % uptake reaches at that point is anyone's guess!

That being said, I do agree with you in that the covid zero policy NZ is pursuing will mean the reopening to other countries will be a lot slower than AU. However, I'm yet to be convinced some of the State Governments will actually proceed with opening when vaccination rates hit 80% in AU.
Keep in mind those stats are the entire population, including infants which neither country is planning to vaccinate.

For eligible population, Australia is 47% with at least one dose, and 25% fully vaccinated. New Zealand is 37% with one dose and 21% fully vaccinated. NZ had been leading the double dose metric for quite some time but we have recently overtaken them.

What’s important is that Australia is vaccinating at a faster rate, and the thing about leading in first dosage is that figure will be the double jab rate in 3-8 weeks. NZ is now giving out Pfizer 6 weeks apart which will increase the first dose rate but won’t have any lasting impact on the double jab rate as they are still giving them out at the same rate. Unless NZ moves from its Pfizer only approach, Australia will get to the finish line quite a few months before NZ.

EC3C3032-FA28-4FAA-B690-378F089A610D.jpeg
 
I would hardly say "fair way behind Australia" when as at today, AU is 20% fully vaccinated vs NZ at 18% (source Our World in Data). AU is ahead by a bit more for first shot people (a further 18% vs 12%). Most predictions/models suggest NZ and AU will be similar in providing everyone a chance to be vaccinated by the end of the year...what the % uptake reaches at that point is anyone's guess!

That being said, I do agree with you in that the covid zero policy NZ is pursuing will mean the reopening to other countries will be a lot slower than AU. However, I'm yet to be convinced some of the State Governments will actually proceed with opening when vaccination rates hit 80% in AU.
The thing with NZ is that they ordered Pfizer much earlier than us so they get their stocks much earlier than us. Yes they were slow to start, my sister and BIL (over 60) only got vaccinated just over a month ago but they now seem to have had an influx of supply, all my nieces (20's and 30's) have now been called up and have had first vaccination in last couple of weeks with second due within a month.

As always its not when you start that matters, its when you finish and NZ are finishing very strongly.
 
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The thing with NZ is that they ordered Pfizer much earlier than us so they get their stocks much earlier than us. Yes they were slow to start, my sister and BIL (over 60) only got vaccinated just over a month ago but they now seem to have had an influx of supply, all my nieces (20's and 30's) have now been called up and have had first vaccination in last couple of weeks with second due within a month.

As always its not when you start that matters, its when you finish and NZ are finishing very strongly.

Sorry, this is completely wrong.

Australia & New Zealand got their first Pfizer deliveries at the same time.
Both Australia & New Zealand now have an influx of supply, so we are seeing both increase significantly but importantly, as above, Australia is still outpacing NZ on a per capita basis.

Australia will win resoundingly because it is also using AZ which is locally made. Sure, if Australia was only using Pfizer, NZ would win hands down, but luckily that is not the case. It should also have lower rates of vaccine hesitancy due to the real threat of covid, especially on the East Coast.

I would absolutely not say that "NZ are finishing very strongly", they will be one of the last developed countries to finish. Australia will be second last.
 
I would absolutely not say that "NZ are finishing very strongly", they will be one of the last developed countries to finish. Australia will be second last.
Neither will be even close to last, if you declare that the finishing line is 75% vaccinated.

There is very strong trust and belief in both of our medical regulators and healthcare systems/providers.
 
Keep in mind those stats are the entire population, including infants which neither country is planning to vaccinate.

For eligible population, Australia is 47% with at least one dose, and 25% fully vaccinated. New Zealand is 37% with one dose and 21% fully vaccinated. NZ had been leading the double dose metric for quite some time but we have recently overtaken them.

What’s important is that Australia is vaccinating at a faster rate, and the thing about leading in first dosage is that figure will be the double jab rate in 3-8 weeks. NZ is now giving out Pfizer 6 weeks apart which will increase the first dose rate but won’t have any lasting impact on the double jab rate as they are still giving them out at the same rate. Unless NZ moves from its Pfizer only approach, Australia will get to the finish line quite a few months before NZ.

Sorry, this is completely wrong.

Australia & New Zealand got their first Pfizer deliveries at the same time.
Both Australia & New Zealand now have an influx of supply, so we are seeing both increase significantly but importantly, as above, Australia is still outpacing NZ on a per capita basis.

Australia will win resoundingly because it is also using AZ which is locally made. Sure, if Australia was only using Pfizer, NZ would win hands down, but luckily that is not the case. It should also have lower rates of vaccine hesitancy due to the real threat of covid, especially on the East Coast.

I would absolutely not say that "NZ are finishing very strongly", they will be one of the last developed countries to finish. Australia will be second last.

Totally understand what you're saying about "eligible population", however, the one thing we'll disagree on is being certain which country will "finish first". If the 18 months has taught us anything, it's that predicting the course of Covid (the virus itself as well as vaccination rollouts, etc) is impossible.

I can't say for certain whether NZ or AU will hit 80% (or any other metric) first, and frankly it doesn't really worry me, and I certainly won't try to predict which country will have greater hesitancy...my point was that they are not that far apart and most modelling suggests their respective eligible populations will have all been offered the shot by the end of the year.
 
Sorry, this is completely wrong.

Australia & New Zealand got their first Pfizer deliveries at the same time.
Both Australia & New Zealand now have an influx of supply, so we are seeing both increase significantly but importantly, as above, Australia is still outpacing NZ on a per capita basis.

Australia will win resoundingly because it is also using AZ which is locally made. Sure, if Australia was only using Pfizer, NZ would win hands down, but luckily that is not the case. It should also have lower rates of vaccine hesitancy due to the real threat of covid, especially on the East Coast.

I would absolutely not say that "NZ are finishing very strongly", they will be one of the last developed countries to finish. Australia will be second last.
They may have got their first deliveries at the same time but contracted schedule was for NZ to get all by end September and for Australia, 80% of scheduled didn't even start to arrive before until Q4. Hardly the same supply, at the moment NZ is also ahead of schedule, as are Australia but no way will all arrive before end Sept.

Agree on vaccine hesitancy in a crisis but there is still a fair bit of hesitancy toward AZ out there. Anywhere the figures will tell the story at the end of the day, not our opinions.
 
They may have got their first deliveries at the same time but contracted schedule was for NZ to get all by end September and for Australia, 80% of scheduled didn't even start to arrive before until Q4. Hardly the same supply, at the moment NZ is also ahead of schedule, as are Australia but no way will all arrive before end Sept.

Agree on vaccine hesitancy in a crisis but there is still a fair bit of hesitancy toward AZ out there.
I explicitly said if this is a Pfizer vs Pfizer argument NZ wins, but it’s not. It’s a Pfizer vs Pfizer + AZ argument.(And I think you’ll find the contracted supply was based on the original order, it’s just that Australia made an additional order which are the bulk of whats coming in Q4.)

I don’t think there’s much hesitancy left towards AZ. Australia is approaching 1.5M doses a week, that’s enough to vaccinate all of NZ in just 3 weeks.

Anywhere the figures will tell the story at the end of the day, not our opinions.

My posts are not based on opinion, purely fact. 63% of elligible Kiwis are yet to receive their first dose. It’s right there on the front page of the NZ Herald. Australia is smashing it because there is massive uptake of AZ and there is a virtually unlimited supply of it thanks to local production.
 
I don’t think there’s much hesitancy left towards AZ. Australia is approaching 1.5M doses a week, that’s enough to vaccinate all of NZ in just 3 weeks.

Well, not quite. At that rate, most of the NZ population would receive their first of two doses in 3 weeks.

Anyway, could I please kindly suggest that there are other threads on AFF to discuss vaccine rollouts. I get that the resumption trans-Tasman travel bubble is somewhat related to vaccination timelines, but the last 10 posts in this thread are veering off-topic.
 
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