There is a 'lead time' before most book international travel. Travel agents I know claim passengers increasingly book trips closer to the date of travel but they don't tell me exactly how close.
In July 2019, overall foreign tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka were down 46.9 per cent to 115,701 compared with July 2018. That's better than the June drop (57 per cent) and May's decline (70.8 per cent) but still a very large loss of posteriors and revenue for airlines (especially UL), hotels and AirBnB accommodation, tour guides and drivers, taxi, tuk tuk/rickshaw/tricycle and rideshare drivers, restaurants that cater to foreigners, bus operators, souvenir shops and major and minor tourist attractions alike.
The biggest drop July on July was by the mainland Chinese (a decline of 74.8 per cent). In recent years this nationality has proven very easily put off by adverse events. While some Australians (the bogans) do our nation little credit by their uncouth behaviour, many other travellers may greet any decline in mainland Chinese visitation as cause for celebration given the way one sees some of them behave at hotel buffets or when waiting at major tourist attractions. And it's not just me: when I've been in countries like the US, Germany and Canada, a long way from mainland China, operators at government-run attractions have occasionally told me how aggressive some of the mainland Chinese tour guides can be in trying to get their group(s) in ahead of others who are patiently waiting their turn.
The number of Australians visiting Sri Lanka in July 2019 was 5619 compared with 8801 in July 2018, so a 36.2 per cent decline. Significant, but less than the total figure dropped. We are the seventh largest source of foreign travellers for Sri Lanka, but on a per capita basis more likely to visit than five of the six natiinalities that rank above us (Netherlands, population 17 million the exception). If I was marketing Sri Lankan tourism I might be spending more dollars in Oz if knew that, although the statistics do not disclose whether the visitors are Sri Lankans who have obtained Australian citizenship and largely stay as VFR in relatives' homes, spending less per day, or whether they are Caucasian or other background who travel and stay in commercial accommodation, spending more per day:
The figures suggest that we Australians tend to be more prepared to travel to destinations that have recently experienced strife than are travellers worldwide. Maybe it's also that because we perceive ourselves as isolated geographically, we are more likely to travel 'no matter what.'
(There's also the 'Australia tax' that AFFer MEL_Traveller correctly referred to in another thread. Often, we pay more per kilometre of international airline travel so if there's a hefty cancellation charge that one can't get back in full from a travel insurer, it may also influence our decision to still go.)
Many hotel and similar staff must have had their hours drastically cut or been made redundant. Replacement jobs may be difficult to find. Tourism had been a boom story like some other economies such as Thailand experienced.
I've been before, largely travelling by train. Most enjoyable, but one pays through the nose at the more popular tourist attractions. Locals pay a smidgeon of what outsiders are charged.
I wouldn't hesitate in visiting again.
It will be interesting to see how long the figures take to recover. Perhaps by December/ January they'll only be 10 per cent down on the comparable month a year ago, or even fully recovered, provided there's no more attacks on Catholic Churches, luxury hotels or other targets.
UL has been in financial trouble for years. This 'tourist recession' must mean losses will further deepen.