MEL-SYD is 5th busiest route

[Awesom Andy]

SYD - CBR vv is probably a line that would work. It's a relatively short length of line and whilst CBR doesn't have the largest of populations it does have a very affluent population, plus at 1 hour from CBD to CBD it would make it quicker than flying, make it cheap enough and it a potentially attractive option for commuters (from either cities) or even just for Canberrans to "drop into Sydney for dinner".

I did just that between TPE and KHH. $40 AUD equivalent and less than 2 hours later, and I'm in the other city having dinner with relatives.

 

[bismarck]

I did see that, I'm still very skeptical. Personally I'm of the belief that if it was a financially viable system, a company would have jumped into the market by now. (Yes I am aware the rumor of the Japanese company whom may be interested).

HSR will absolutely never pay back its capital price. Best you can hope for is that it covers its operating costs.

The recent federal government report showed it would generate $2.30 of economic benefit for every $1 investment which is pretty good as far as transport infrastructure goes.

A far as an example of routes similar to the east coast of Australia I would point to the French TGV between Calais-Lille-Marseille (pop. 2.78m for 926km of track), the east cost of the US (pop 12.8m for 627km) and Seville-Madrid-Barcelona (pop 8.4m for 904km).

This compares with Australia 10.6m in the catchment (MEL-CBR-SYD-BNE) for a 1,439km network. So we're larger, but not outrageously so.

Source: Infrastructure Partnerships Australia - A realistic pathway to Very Fast Trains

 

[whatmeworry]

Agreed. Also in what is a reverse of typical trends, they tend to run their largest aircraft on pure dom routes, eg taking a 747 on flights which might only last an hour or two was not uncommon until very recently.



IMHO We have massive distances and are missing the population density to make such a system viable. Japan has a distance of 2,400km of high speed rail line with a population of 127 million. Australia would require around 1,800km of high speed rail line to service the golden triangle. That would mean it's useful for as a guess 14 million people (populations of MEL + CBR + SYD + BNE + regional cities and town along the way).

Ok so not every one of those 127 million people in Japan has completely easy access to the trains, but lets assume at least 50% (and this number is likely to be much much higher) of the country does, it means that for every km of track in Japan there is 26,400 people who has easy access. In Australia, that ratio goes to only 8000 people per KM. So it means that at best, we have only a third of the population to support such a system.

That is not to say that such a system wouldn't be really really cool, but just been really really cool does not equate a good financial investment. Before I am convinced that a high speed rail system would be viable, I would like to see someone point to a country of similar size and population density (I'm happy to limit it to the golden triangle) whom have managed to make such a system run both profitably and well, because every example I've been told so far has talked about joining two cities together over relatively small distances and each city has roughly the total population located inside it.

One could argue that high speed rail could be the catalyst to decentralise the population from the major eastern cities and increase the size of regional cities.

 

[seanpodge]

China has a much lower per capita income so trains are more attractive. Aus has long distances and high incomes, as in Europe. Trains work over relatively short distances, eg to 2 to 3 hours, ie London to Paris but struggle over longer routes. Syd to Cbr would work, Mel to Bris, or even Syd to Bris, probably not unfortunately.

Cheers

Poor people in China who are counting every last yuan would take the slower, regular speed trains which often make the current Melbourne to Sydney train look like cutting edge rail technology (probably with a ticket that doesn't entitle the holder to a seat, let alone mystical luxuries such as lounge access). Many routes where such trains operate have little to no prospect of ever being connected to the HSR network.

Second class seats on the G series trains from Beijing South to Shanghai Hongqiao are set at Y553 for a 5:43 journey time. The full price for an economy plane ticket from PEK-SHA is Y1110 (+ Y170 airport construction tax and fuel surcharge), but these are frequently slashed on competitive routes like PEK-SHA to levels that are cheaper than high speed rail. For example, on Taobao travel, the lowest price for PEK-SHA flights for the next four weeks is from Y507 (tomorrow) to Y309 (Sep 7th) + tax, with most days floating just under Y350 for a two hour flight. So, to take that example, which is more attractive for poor people? And why wouldn't the same thing happen here in Australia?

As much as I'd like to see HSR happen in Australia, I don't think it's viable unless towns along the route become serious cities (min 500,000 population). Currently the only part that I think is even remotely possible is Canberra-Sydney-Newcastle, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[harvyk]

One could argue that high speed rail could be the catalyst to decentralise the population from the major eastern cities and increase the size of regional cities.

Partially agreed. It would certainly have an effect of allowing Sydney or Melbourne to expand beyond it's current limits into neighboring towns, since it would then be possible to say work in SYD CBD and yet live in Goulburn. But for that all you'd really need is shorter sections of track heading out a couple of hundred KM's from the CBD's of the major cities to connect some of the nearby regional towns. Beyond an hours distance away (which at 300km/h makes the useful limit somewhere near 300km) I can't seeing it being too popular for commuters. That said I used to work with a guy whom lived in Ballarat but worked in Melbourne, took him 2 hours on the train to get from home to work, so there will be some exceptions further afield.