Looming Jet Fuel Shortages?

[I love to travel]

Europe is currently looking like a minimum 40% supply crunch.

When though will it really impact long haul flights?

 

[Quickstatus]

Fuel stocks held as of 28/04/26

Previous posts:
#45 Tuesday 10/3/26
#165 for 31/3/26
#214 for 07/04/26
#307 for 14/4/26
#351 for 21/4/26


The change in fuel stocks since 10/3/26:
Petrol increase by 223 ML
Jet Fuel reduce by 18 ML
Diesel increase by 287 ML

1 ML Jet fuel = 800 Tonnes (metric) 780 Tons (imperial)

737-800 SYD-MEL maybe uses 4.5 Tonnes??
A380 SIN -LHR maybe 160 Tonnes??

 

[transpactraveller]

They've been lobbying for that for some time so not surprising.

This is mostly about slots at airports like LHR, it will allow BA to cancel their "slot sitting" flights to save fuel (usually called "slot hoarding" in Australia, but known as "slot sitting" in the UK).

BA are notorious for it, often flying mostly empty planes in and out of Heathrow to prevent other airlines from taking their coveted Heathrow slots. Or using 2 smaller aircraft on 2 similarly timed departures, instead of 1 larger one, to use more slots.

Some of them are quite obvious, for example near identical departures to the same destination that are scheduled 5 minutes apart.

 

[Saab34]

Fuel supply seems good, Australia has plenty of cash, with major suppliers having the right connections, throw in the government underwriting contracts, it seems like we won’t be having issues getting supply. Many other nations don’t have this luxury. Money to be made by the big firms by selling to Australia.

However it seems that we are about to enter another price spike wave. Shocking few months ahead for airline accountants! Will be interesting to see if some carriers can continue to hold on, certainly a few Asian low costs have questionable finances, remains to be seen if they can pull through.

 

[elanshin]

Fuel supply seems good, Australia has plenty of cash, with major suppliers having the right connections, throw in the government underwriting contracts, it seems like we won’t be having issues getting supply. Many other nations don’t have this luxury. Money to be made by the big firms by selling to Australia.

However it seems that we are about to enter another price spike wave. Shocking few months ahead for airline accountants! Will be interesting to see if some carriers can continue to hold on, certainly a few Asian low costs have questionable finances, remains to be seen if they can pull through.

Realisitcally, our media cycle has greatly blown out Australia's fuel situation. Will it cost more? probably. But we won't run out like many doom news headlines have been promoting. We'll see many other places running dry before we're seriously running low - purely because we can barter very strongly with our own resources that have also shot up in value (which we seem to be doing).


That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

 

[Saab34]

That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

I think some of the smaller operators in Europe might struggle.

Locally, some of these low costs in Asia have always had questionable profitability, are currently cutting back considerably and don’t hedge. Good luck trying to get finance.

If Bonza somewhat still was alive it probably would have collapsed regardless.

 

[AuSammy]

Realisitcally, our media cycle has greatly blown out Australia's fuel situation. Will it cost more? probably. But we won't run out like many doom news headlines have been promoting. We'll see many other places running dry before we're seriously running low - purely because we can barter very strongly with our own resources that have also shot up in value (which we seem to be doing).


That being said, we've now seen the first major overseas casualty - Spirit Airlines. How many more will go under? I guess we'll see in 6 months time.

Spirit Airlines been under a cloud since late 2024. The war was only one of many nails in the coffin

 

[Saab34]

Essentially the same as Virgin. It was going to enter administration at some point, just needed that nudge to push it over.

 

[LionKing]

So it seems air fuel price has stabilised but at a high level. So fares are not going down in the short term.

 

[jrfsp]

Oil up 5% after oil industry zone drone strike in the UAE.

 

[markis10]

So it seems air fuel price has stabilised but at a high level. So fares are not going down in the short term.

Rather simplistic view of things, a lot more goes into the makeup of a fare than just fuel costs. Given the current JQ return for free and Qantas double SC promo launched yesterday as examples of that where demand is being stimulated regardless.

 

[Ecco]

Was booked on QF4 AKL-SYD tomorrow Wednesday 6/5 ,It’s the connecting flight with JFK-AKL. Got a notification at 3pm today that the flight has been moved to Thursday 7/5 some 26 hours later.
Does anyone know what the status is with regards to claim for delay costs when this happens?

inconvenient hearing that late, also I was booked on J via AS miles , had to scramble around and book a qf points flight at greatly inflated number of points compared to AS. but AS showing no availability..
This must be related to the load factor not justifying the fuel cost.
Somewhat apprehensive about a big trip to Europe planned in June if this sort of thing is going to happen down the track.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Was booked on QF4 AKL-SYD tomorrow Wednesday 6/5 ,It’s the connecting flight with JFK-AKL. Got a notification at 3pm today that the flight has been moved to Thursday 7/5 some 26 hours later.
Does anyone know what the status is with regards to claim for delay costs when this happens?

inconvenient hearing that late, also I was booked on J via AS miles , had to scramble around and book a qf points flight at greatly inflated number of points compared to AS. but AS showing no availability..
This must be related to the load factor not justifying the fuel cost.
Somewhat apprehensive about a big trip to Europe planned in June if this sort of thing is going to happen down the track.

If QF moved the flight by 26 hours they would have reaccommodated you on another one of their services. This would NOT be dependent on award availability… they would have just moved you to any other Qantas flight with business class available. No need for you to have cancelled the AS J booking, or use your own points for a QFFF seat.

This is outlined in the Qantas contract of carriage.

The system would have automatically rebooked you, but an agent would have manually overridden that.

Same thing for June… no need for you to spend any extra money. If a flight is delayed, qantas will accommodate you on the next available service.

 

[Quickstatus]

This must be related to the load factor not justifying the fuel cost.

No

The reason you were punted from your 6May QF4 AKL-SYD is because the operating aircraft (VH-ZNB) has not departed from JFK. Officially it is "delayed" . But if you read the tea leaves the current time in JFK is 0531am on 5May. The aircraft was supposed to depart 10 hours ago. This means the flight is likely cancelled or severely delayed.
The airline proactively moved you to the next day on the same aircraft currently tentatively scheduled for AKL departure at 0850am which is the 26hrs later.
Of course this assumes the aircraft can operate the route at all.
While it sounds like you got a J seat, did you request QF put you on any of the multiple other AKL-SYD flights on 6 May? They would have done it at no additional cost. Of course there is a chance that J seats on the other aircraft are full with other passengers in the same boat.

Delays and cancellations happen all the time

BTW the greatly inflated QF points sounds like the Classic plus seats rather than the Classic Rewards seats.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No

The reason you were punted from your 6May QF4 AKL-SYD is because the operating aircraft (VH-ZNB) has not departed from JFK. Officially it is "delayed" . But if you read the tea leaves the current time in JFK is 0531am on 5May. The aircraft was supposed to depart 10 hours ago. This means the flight is likely cancelled or severely delayed.
The airline proactively moved you to the next day on the same aircraft currently tentatively scheduled for AKL departure at 0850am which is the 26hrs later.
Of course this assumes the aircraft can operate the route at all.
While it sounds like you got a J seat, did you request QF put you on any of the multiple other AKL-SYD flights on 6 May? They would have done it at no additional cost. Of course there is a chance that J seats on the other aircraft are full with other passengers in the same boat.

Delays and cancellations happen all the time

BTW the greatly inflated QF points sounds like the Classic plus seats rather than the Classic Rewards seats.

I checked before posting… there were J seats available tomorrow, albeit via BNE (or Queenstown for an earlier arrival into SYD).